Bracket Projection 2-23-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  I’ve projected them as a 4- or 5-seed for weeks.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Xavier is a consensus 7-seed, but their slide in my ratings puts them as the last team in at a 12-seed
  • Maryland is still a consensus 6-seed.  Their loss last night to Minnesota at home supports my position for Maryland in the First Four Out.  They’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games, which also supports my assertion of Maryland being one of the most overrated teams.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Minnesota 8 Middle Tenn.
9 South Carolina 9 VCU
5 Duke 5 SMU
12 Utah/Louisiana Tech 12 Syracuse/Xavier
4 Florida St. 4 Kansas
13 Nevada 13 Vermont
6 Arizona 6 Butler
11 Arkansas 11 Northwestern
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Belmont 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Creighton 7 Iowa St.
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 UCLA 2 Wichita St.
15 New Mexico St. 15 Winthrop
1 Kentucky 1 North Carolina
16 Wagner/Texas Southern 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 Michigan 8 Texas Tech
9 Indiana 9 Rhode Island
5 Baylor 5 Wisconsin
12 Monmouth 12 UNC Wilmington
4 St. Mary’s (CA) 4 Purdue
13 Valparaiso 13 Princeton
6 Oklahoma St. 6 Notre Dame
11 Wake Forest 11 Kansas St.
3 Virginia 3 Villanova
14 Ohio 14 Bucknell
7 Houston 7 Dayton
10 East Tenn. St. 10 Marquette
2 Florida 2 Louisville

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