Bracket Projection 2-27-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  They’ve slipped from a 5- to a 6-seed after losing to Iowa State.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are.
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.  Kansas beat Texas in Austin by 10 over the weekend.  Kent State only beat Texas by 5, so there’s that I guess.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Xavier is slowly slipping and is now a consensus 8-seed, but their slide in my ratings puts them now in the First Four Out of the tournament.
  • Maryland finally dropped to a consensus 7-seed.  They lost at home by 14 to Iowa (whose record is 16-13) – yet another loss that supports my position for Maryland not making the tournament.  They’ve now lost 5 of their last 7 games, which also supports my assertion of Maryland being one of the most overrated teams.
  • BYU and Michigan State have been on the bubble for a while and are now in.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Creighton 8 Middle Tenn.
9 Rhode Island 9 Michigan
5 Purdue 5 Duke
12 BYU/Louisiana Tech 12 Michigan St./TCU
4 Florida St. 4 St. Mary’s (CA)
13 Princeton 13 Vermont
6 Wisconsin 6 Oklahoma St.
11 East Tenn. St. 11 Marquette
3 Florida 3 Villanova
14 New Mexico St. 14 Valparaiso
7 Notre Dame 7 Houston
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 Wichita St. 2 North Carolina
15 Ohio 15 Winthrop
1 Louisville 1 Kentucky
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 South Carolina 8 Texas Tech
9 VCU 9 Indiana
5 Butler 5 Arizona
12 Nevada 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Kansas 4 SMU
13 Bucknell 13 Monmouth
6 Iowa St. 6 Baylor
11 Northwestern 11 Utah
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Texas-Arlington 14 Belmont
7 Minnesota 7 Dayton
10 Wake Forest 10 Arkansas
2 Virginia 2 UCLA