Monthly Archives: February 2017

Bracket Projection 2-27-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  They’ve slipped from a 5- to a 6-seed after losing to Iowa State.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are.
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.  Kansas beat Texas in Austin by 10 over the weekend.  Kent State only beat Texas by 5, so there’s that I guess.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Xavier is slowly slipping and is now a consensus 8-seed, but their slide in my ratings puts them now in the First Four Out of the tournament.
  • Maryland finally dropped to a consensus 7-seed.  They lost at home by 14 to Iowa (whose record is 16-13) – yet another loss that supports my position for Maryland not making the tournament.  They’ve now lost 5 of their last 7 games, which also supports my assertion of Maryland being one of the most overrated teams.
  • BYU and Michigan State have been on the bubble for a while and are now in.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Creighton 8 Middle Tenn.
9 Rhode Island 9 Michigan
5 Purdue 5 Duke
12 BYU/Louisiana Tech 12 Michigan St./TCU
4 Florida St. 4 St. Mary’s (CA)
13 Princeton 13 Vermont
6 Wisconsin 6 Oklahoma St.
11 East Tenn. St. 11 Marquette
3 Florida 3 Villanova
14 New Mexico St. 14 Valparaiso
7 Notre Dame 7 Houston
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 Wichita St. 2 North Carolina
15 Ohio 15 Winthrop
1 Louisville 1 Kentucky
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 South Carolina 8 Texas Tech
9 VCU 9 Indiana
5 Butler 5 Arizona
12 Nevada 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Kansas 4 SMU
13 Bucknell 13 Monmouth
6 Iowa St. 6 Baylor
11 Northwestern 11 Utah
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Texas-Arlington 14 Belmont
7 Minnesota 7 Dayton
10 Wake Forest 10 Arkansas
2 Virginia 2 UCLA
15 FGCU 15 IPFW

 

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 2-23-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 24 51
Arizona 4 21
Northwestern 27 42
Kansas 3 14
Baylor 9 20
Villanova 2 11
VCU 26 34
Duke 10 17

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 25 6
West Virginia 12 2
Kentucky 11 4
Virginia 18 12
Florida St. 19 13
North Carolina 8 3
Florida 13 8
Cincinnati 15 10

 

Bubble Teams 2-23-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Tennessee and TCU fell out.  Syracuse and Louisiana Tech (winner of 6 straight) moved in.  Xavier continues to lose ground and is now the last team in.  Maryland is still overrated and is still out.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Miami (FL)
  • California
  • Marquette
  • East Tenn. State
  • Arkansas
  • Northwestern
  • Kansas State
  • Wake Forest

Last Four In

  • Utah
  • Louisiana Tech
  • Syracuse
  • Xavier

First Four Out

  • TCU
  • Maryland
  • Illinois State
  • BYU

Next Four Out

  • Tennessee
  • Michigan State
  • USC
  • Georgia

 

Bracket Projection 2-23-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  I’ve projected them as a 4- or 5-seed for weeks.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Xavier is a consensus 7-seed, but their slide in my ratings puts them as the last team in at a 12-seed
  • Maryland is still a consensus 6-seed.  Their loss last night to Minnesota at home supports my position for Maryland in the First Four Out.  They’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games, which also supports my assertion of Maryland being one of the most overrated teams.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Minnesota 8 Middle Tenn.
9 South Carolina 9 VCU
5 Duke 5 SMU
12 Utah/Louisiana Tech 12 Syracuse/Xavier
4 Florida St. 4 Kansas
13 Nevada 13 Vermont
6 Arizona 6 Butler
11 Arkansas 11 Northwestern
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Belmont 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Creighton 7 Iowa St.
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 UCLA 2 Wichita St.
15 New Mexico St. 15 Winthrop
1 Kentucky 1 North Carolina
16 Wagner/Texas Southern 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 Michigan 8 Texas Tech
9 Indiana 9 Rhode Island
5 Baylor 5 Wisconsin
12 Monmouth 12 UNC Wilmington
4 St. Mary’s (CA) 4 Purdue
13 Valparaiso 13 Princeton
6 Oklahoma St. 6 Notre Dame
11 Wake Forest 11 Kansas St.
3 Virginia 3 Villanova
14 Ohio 14 Bucknell
7 Houston 7 Dayton
10 East Tenn. St. 10 Marquette
2 Florida 2 Louisville
15 IPFW 15 FGCU

Bubble Teams 2-20-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Marquette and Tennessee are in.  Michigan is still off the bubble (on the safe side).  Rhode Island joined them, while Middle Tennessee moved into “safe” territory.  Xavier continues to lose ground and are now in the Last Four In.  Utah also lost ground.  Maryland and Syracuse dropped out.  Louisiana Tech has won 6 in a row and are now sitting right below the cut-off line.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • VCU
  • Northwestern
  • Kansas State
  • Miami (FL)
  • Wake Forest
  • California
  • Arkansas
  • Marquette

Last Four In

  • Tennessee
  • Xavier
  • Utah
  • TCU

First Four Out

  • Louisiana Tech
  • Syracuse
  • Maryland
  • Illinois State

Next Four Out

  • Michigan State
  • Georgetown
  • BYU
  • Clemson

 

Bracket Projection 2-20-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy difference with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  I’ve projected them as a 4- or 5-seed for weeks.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Most bracketologists are just now taking Indiana out of their projection.  Indiana’s been out for a long time for me
  • Syracuse and Maryland are out.  Xavier has slid considerably and is barely in, now.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 UC Irvine 16 Eastern Wash.
8 Texas Tech 8 Middle Tenn.
9 Indiana 9 Michigan
5 SMU 5 St. Mary’s (CA)
12 East Tenn. St. 12 Utah/TCU
4 Purdue 4 Duke
13 Monmouth 13 Vermont
6 Arizona 6 Butler
11 California 11 Arkansas
3 Oregon 3 Villanova
14 New Mexico St. 14 Belmont
7 Iowa St. 7 Creighton
10 Northwestern 10 Kansas St.
2 North Carolina 2 UCLA
15 Texas-Arlington 15 Winthrop
1 Louisville 1 Kentucky
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 South Carolina 8 Minnesota
9 VCU 9 Rhode Island
5 Baylor 5 Wisconsin
12 Nevada 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Kansas 4 Florida St.
13 Valparaiso 13 Princeton
6 Oklahoma St. 6 Notre Dame
11 Tennessee/Xavier 11 Marquette
3 Cincinnati 3 Florida
14 Bucknell 14 Ohio
7 Dayton 7 Houston
10 Wake Forest 10 Miami (FL)
2 Virginia 2 Wichita St.
15 FGCU 15 IPFW

 

Bubble Teams 2-16-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Michigan is still off the bubble (on the safe side).  Rhode Island is now on the bubble, while Middle Tennessee moved into “safe” territory.  Xavier continues to lose ground.  Illinois State and Tennessee were replaced by Maryland and Arkansas in the Last Four In.  Illinois State fell to right below the cut-line.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Northwestern
  • Rhode Island
  • Utah
  • California
  • Kansas State
  • Xavier
  • Wake Forest
  • Miami (FL)

Last Four In

  • TCU
  • Maryland
  • Syracuse
  • Arkansas

First Four Out

  • Illinois State
  • Tennessee
  • USC
  • Marquette

Next Four Out

  • Georgetown
  • BYU
  • Michigan State
  • Clemson

 

Bracket Projection 2-16-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy difference with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Kansas and Baylor are both consensus 1-seeds.  Ratings from TheRankerPit.com indicate Kansas and Baylor may be a bit overrated.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Most bracketologists are just now taking Indiana out of their projection.  Indiana’s been out for a long time for me
  • Maryland and Arkansas have moved in, while Illinois State and Tennessee have moved out.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 UC Irvine 16 N.C. Central
8 South Carolina 8 Minnesota
9 Indiana 9 Middle Tenn.
5 Wisconsin 5 Baylor
12 Syracuse/Arkansas 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Cincinnati 4 Purdue
13 Nevada 13 Monmouth
6 Arizona 6 Notre Dame
11 Xavier 11 Wake Forest
3 UCLA 3 Villanova
14 Princeton 14 Akron
7 Creighton 7 Iowa St.
10 Rhode Island 10 Utah
2 Virginia 2 North Carolina
15 Bucknell 15 UNC Asheville
1 Louisville 1 Kentucky
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 Sam Houston St./Eastern Wash.
8 Michigan 8 Texas Tech
9 Northwestern 9 VCU
5 St. Mary’s (CA) 5 SMU
12 Vermont 12 East Tenn. St.
4 Kansas 4 Duke
13 Belmont 13 Valparaiso
6 Butler 6 Oklahoma St.
11 TCU/Maryland 11 Miami (FL)
3 Florida St. 3 Oregon
14 New Mexico St. 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Dayton 7 Houston
10 Kansas St. 10 California
2 Wichita St. 2 Florida
15 FGCU 15 IPFW

Bubble Teams 2-15-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Northwestern is still off the bubble (on the safe side).  Michigan joined them.  Xavier’s on the bubble.  Miami gained ground, while Tennessee lost some.  Illinois State is still right above the cut-line.  Maryland is back into the First Four Out.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Xavier
  • Middle Tennessee
  • VCU
  • Kansas State
  • Utah
  • California
  • Wake Forest
  • Miami (FL)

Last Four In

  • TCU
  • Syracuse
  • Tennessee
  • Illinois State

First Four Out

  • Georgetown
  • Maryland
  • Marquette
  • Arkansas
  • Michigan State

Next Four Out

  • Michigan State
  • USC
  • BYU
  • Clemson

 

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 2-13-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 23 55
Southern California 29 54
Kansas 3 19
Arizona 5 21
Baylor 4 17
Villanova 2 9
Oregon 7 13

 UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 26 8
Oklahoma St. 34 23
Kentucky 13 4
Virginia 14 5
Florida 15 7
West Virginia 9 2
Cincinnati 18 11