Over-seeded 1-Seeds Underperform

By undeserving, I’m talking about 1-seeds that my computer model says are not one of the top four teams in the tournament.

This year, my model says North Carolina should’ve been a 2-seed and Kansas should’ve been a 5-seed.

Going back to 2003, my model says 23 out of the 60 1-seeds were over-seeded.

The average number of wins for deserving 1-seeds was 3.8 (4 wins get you to the Final 4), while the average number of wins for undeserving 1-seeds was 2.3.  That’s a big difference!

5 of the 23 undeserving 1-seeds lost in the Second Round, and none of them reached the championship game.

That’s a decent number of data points to indicate my model’s on to something here.

2017 Advice

Definitely don’t pick Kansas to win it all.  Fight the urge!  Remember, the Quarterfinal Rule already declared them ineligible.

The data shows an overseeded 1-seed hasn’t won the championship since 2003, so think twice about picking UNC.

I’m predicting Iowa State to knock Kansas out in the Second Round and UNC to lose in the Elite 8 to… I’m not sure, take your pick between Kentucky, UCLA, and Wichita State.