BracketResearch.com has developed a computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament results. The model simulates the NCAA Tournament, providing results that you can use to dramatically increase your chances of winning your bracket pool. I will share simulation results in separate posts, but continue reading to see how well the model performed when I tested it on the past five tournaments.
Predicting the Overall Champion
The biggest key to winning your bracket pool (in standard scoring formats) is picking the correct champion. Three of the last five champions were the most likely champ, according to the model. In the other two years, the champ was still one of the top 3 most likely teams to win it all. I’m most impressed with the 2014 results. Connecticut shocked most of us when they won the tournament, becoming the first 7-seed to win the final game. The table below shows the model’s top 5 most likely champions for the last five years. Actual winners are highlighted in green.
Predicting the Final Four
The next biggest key to winning your bracket pool is maximizing the points you get in the Final Four. The table below shows the model’s top 4 teams from each region to most likely reach the Final Four in the 2013-2017 tournaments. The model only had two (out of 20) big misses, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone that can prove they predicted 7-seed South Carolina (last year) and 10-seed Syracuse (in 2016) to reach the Final Four. Actual region winners are highlighted in green.
Predicting First Round Upsets
The model did pretty well predicting First Round upsets, as well. Actual winners are highlighted in green. I’d like to especially call out the 14-Georgia State and 15-Florida Gulf Coast predictions in 2015 and 2013, respectively.