Top 5 Most Likely First Round Upsets

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from’s computer model.  Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes. Among the most likely upsets in the first round, we’ve got a nice mix of 10, 11, 12, and 13 seeds.  Only two teams, though, have a greater than 50% chance of winning their first game.

Team Chance
13 Marshall 59%
11 Loyola (IL) 56%
10 Providence 46%
12 New Mexico St. 44%
10 Oklahoma 42%