Updated Bracket Probabilities

Now that everybody’s brackets are all busted up, I thought I’d re-run my sweet model (click here to see just how amazing it is) and see how the bracket probabilities for each team pan out.  New favorites are Villanova and Kansas (by far), followed by West Virginia and Kentucky.

Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Final Champ
9 Kansas St. 28.1% 13.1% 4.5% 0.9%
5 Kentucky 71.9% 50.4% 29.4% 7.9%
11 Loyola (IL) 32.2% 7.1% 1.7% 0.1%
7 Nevada 67.8% 29.4% 13.0% 2.1%
9 Florida St. 22.7% 6.5% 1.8% 0.3%
4 Gonzaga 77.3% 40.4% 21.3% 5.4%
3 Michigan 67.4% 38.6% 22.3% 5.1%
7 Texas A&M 32.6% 14.6% 6.0% 1.0%
1 Villanova 67.3% 58.8% 37.5% 32.4%
5 West Virginia 32.7% 23.5% 11.3% 8.3%
3 Texas Tech 45.5% 6.8% 2.0% 1.0%
2 Purdue 54.6% 10.9% 3.6% 2.0%
1 Kansas 90.0% 73.1% 41.2% 31.6%
5 Clemson 10.0% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1%
11 Syracuse 37.6% 10.3% 1.4% 0.5%
2 Duke 62.4% 13.2% 2.5% 1.4%

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