Now that everybody’s brackets are all busted up, I thought I’d re-run my sweet model (click here to see just how amazing it is) and see how the bracket probabilities for each team pan out. New favorites are Villanova and Kansas (by far), followed by West Virginia and Kentucky.
| Seed | Team | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Final | Champ |
| 9 | Kansas St. | 28.1% | 13.1% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| 5 | Kentucky | 71.9% | 50.4% | 29.4% | 7.9% |
| 11 | Loyola (IL) | 32.2% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| 7 | Nevada | 67.8% | 29.4% | 13.0% | 2.1% |
| 9 | Florida St. | 22.7% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | Gonzaga | 77.3% | 40.4% | 21.3% | 5.4% |
| 3 | Michigan | 67.4% | 38.6% | 22.3% | 5.1% |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 32.6% | 14.6% | 6.0% | 1.0% |
| 1 | Villanova | 67.3% | 58.8% | 37.5% | 32.4% |
| 5 | West Virginia | 32.7% | 23.5% | 11.3% | 8.3% |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 45.5% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 2 | Purdue | 54.6% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| 1 | Kansas | 90.0% | 73.1% | 41.2% | 31.6% |
| 5 | Clemson | 10.0% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 11 | Syracuse | 37.6% | 10.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 2 | Duke | 62.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% |