Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. 

Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…

RegionSeedTeamChance of Not Reaching Sweet 16
South3Purdue72%
West3Texas Tech43%
Midwest3Houston42%
South2Tennessee39%
West2Michigan22%
Midwest1North Carolina22%

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