Most Likely First Round Upsets

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model.  Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes.

Our artificially intelligent model has identified 12 teams that have a greater than 20% chance of pulling of an upset in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Only two teams are expected (greater than 50% chance) to win their first game.

RegionSeedTeamChance
East10Minnesota62%
Midwest10Seton Hall59%
South12Oregon49%
East13Saint Louis43%
South14Old Dominion41%
South11St. Mary’s (CA)37%
East11Temple36%
West11Arizona St.34%
West10Florida32%
East11Belmont29%
West11St. John’s (NY)24%
South13UC Irvine24%

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