Top 5 Most Likely Cinderellas

My definition of a Cinderella team:  an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16.  Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.

RegionSeedTeamChance of Reaching Sweet 16
South12Oregon21%
South11St. Mary’s (CA)17%
South14Old Dominion16%
West11Arizona St.11%
East13Saint Louis10%

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