Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever

• Most important is picking the winner. Here are the only contenders to consider (in order of likelihood):
  • Duke
  • Kentucky
  • Michigan State
  • Virginia
  • Tennessee
  • North Carolina
• Dark Horse Champion picks – these teams either don’t have Champ DNA, or have small, but significant chances of winning it all
  • Kansas
  • Michigan
  • Florida State
  • LSU
  • Gonzaga
• Final 4 picks – stick with the contenders listed above with the following additions
  • Also consider Kansas in the Midwest
  • The West Region is wide open (notice there are no contenders in this region). I won’t be surprised if any of the top 10 seeds win this region, but the most likely winners are:
    • Michigan
    • Florida State
    • Gonzaga
• Toxic teams, aka the pretenders, aka early-exit-candidates – don’t pick these teams to advance far:
  • Purdue
  • Texas Tech
  • Houston
• First Round upsets – there are usually 6-7 double-digit seeds that win in the first round. My analysis shows we are likely to see only 4-6 this year.
• First Round upset specials (in order of likelihood)
  • Minnesota
  • Seton Hall
  • Oregon
  • Saint Louis
  • Old Dominion
  • St. Mary’s
• Potential Cinderellas – we almost always have at least one 11+ seed that reaches the Sweet 16. I’ve calculated a 63% chance at least one of these teams will be this year’s Cinderella:
  • Oregon
  • St. Mary’s
  • Old Dominion
  • Arizona State
  • Saint Louis
  • Liberty
  • UC Irvine
• Beware the potential Bracket Busters – when a 6+ seed reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are at least a little busted. I’m not saying it’ll happen, but the most likely teams to do it are:
  • 7-Cincinnati
  • 6-Iowa State
  • 6-Buffalo
  • 6-Villanova
  • 7-Nevada
  • 12-Oregon