This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
Championship Probabilities
Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
Duke | 29% | 19% | 8% | 12% | 18% | 15% | 10% |
Kansas | 13% | 1% | 0.8% | 0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 4% |
Kentucky | 11% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% |
Michigan St. | 11% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 6% |
Virginia | 7% | 17% | 17% | 21% | 21% | 33% | 10% |
Tennessee | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 5% |
Michigan | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 5% |
Florida St. | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 3% |
North Carolina | 3% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 7% | 6% |
LSU | 3% | 0.5% | 2% | 0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3% |
Gonzaga | 2% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 24% | 5% |
Houston | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 5% |
East Region Winner
Seed | Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
1 | Duke | 56% | 52% | 32% | 40% | 49% | 50% | 29% |
2 | Michigan St. | 27% | 22% | 29% | 33% | 35% | 31% | 21% |
3 | LSU | 12% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 12% |
5 | Mississippi St. | 3% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
4 | Virginia Tech | 0.2% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 10% | 7% |
6 | Maryland | 0.2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
West Region Winner
Seed | Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
2 | Michigan | 33% | 17% | 20% | 22% | 27% | 14% | 17% |
4 | Florida St. | 23% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 13% |
1 | Gonzaga | 22% | 50% | 39% | 44% | 43% | 65% | 20% |
3 | Texas Tech | 9% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 12% |
5 | Marquette | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
6 | Buffalo | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 11% |
South Region Winner
Seed | Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
1 | Virginia | 36% | 49% | 45% | 49% | 54% | 67% | 29% |
2 | Tennessee | 28% | 21% | 19% | 17% | 27% | 13% | 17% |
7 | Cincinnati | 13% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
4 | Kansas St. | 11% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
6 | Villanova | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 8% |
3 | Purdue | 2% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 9% | 10% | 8% |
Midwest Region Winner
Seed | Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
4 | Kansas | 34% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 13% |
2 | Kentucky | 33% | 24% | 26% | 23% | 26% | 24% | 18% |
1 | North Carolina | 13% | 35% | 30% | 37% | 47% | 40% | 21% |
3 | Houston | 10% | 10% | 19% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 16% |
6 | Iowa St. | 5% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% |
5 | Auburn | 3% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 9% | 7% |
First Round Upsets
Seed | Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
10 | Minnesota | 62% | 32% | 40% | 34% | 29% | 25% | 49% |
10 | Seton Hall | 59% | 37% | 41% | 32% | 36% | 23% | 42% |
12 | Oregon | 49% | 40% | 37% | 32% | 26% | 32% | 37% |
13 | Saint Louis | 43% | 11% | 30% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 33% |
14 | Old Dominion | 41% | 12% | 22% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 37% |
11 | St. Mary’s (CA) | 37% | 25% | 42% | 48% | 30% | 38% | 36% |
11 | Arizona St. | 34% | 18% | 48% | 15% | 13% | 13% |
10 | Florida | 32% | 42% | 35% | 48% | 41% | 44% | 37% |
11 | Belmont | 29% | 38% | 50% | 20% | 18% | 22% | 44% |
11 | St. John’s (NY) | 24% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 12% | 32% |
13 | UC Irvine | 24% | 23% | 33% | 27% | 17% | 23% | 36% |
12 | Liberty | 18% | 21% | 22% | 29% | 23% | 23% | 36% |
12 | New Mexico St. | 16% | 23% | 34% | 28% | 24% | 20% | 42% |
10 | Iowa | 12% | 32% | 37% | 47% | 51% | 40% | 38% |
11 | Ohio St. | 12% | 33% | 42% | 34% | 26% | 27% | 38% |
12 | Murray St. | 11% | 36% | 42% | 37% | 30% | 34% | 42% |
Cinderella Potential – Chance of 11+ seeds reaching the Sweet 16
Seed | Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
12 | Oregon | 21% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 16% | 15% |
11 | St. Mary’s (CA) | 17% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 7% | 10% | 14% |
14 | Old Dominion | 16% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 16% |
11 | Arizona St. | 11% | 5% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
13 | Saint Louis | 10% | 3% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 13% |
11 | Belmont | 3% | 16% | 20% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 17% |
11 | Ohio St | 1% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 9% | 12% |
12 | Murray St | 1% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 16% |
12 | New Mexico St | 2% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 17% |
13 | UC Irvine | 8% | 7% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 16% |
Potential Bracket Busters – 6+ seeds reaching the Elite 8
Seed | Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
7 | Cincinnati | 28% | 11% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 16% |
6 | Iowa St. | 13% | 15% | 8% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 11% |
6 | Buffalo | 11% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 20% |
6 | Villanova | 10% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 17% |
7 | Nevada | 7% | 10% | 13% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 14% |
12 | Oregon | 7% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
6 | Maryland | 2% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 11% |
7 | Louisville | 1% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8% |
Potential Busts – most likely 1-3 seeds to not reach the Sweet 16
Seed | Team | BR | 538 | SN | KP | TPR | ESPN | PS |
3 | Purdue | 72% | 49% | 51% | 41% | 38% | 34% | 65% |
3 | Texas Tech | 43% | 35% | 35% | 37% | 35% | 30% | 56% |
3 | Houston | 42% | 47% | 35% | 52% | 50% | 48% | 48% |
2 | Tennessee | 39% | 31% | 38% | 33% | 18% | 28% | 49% |
2 | Michigan | 22% | 31% | 35% | 31% | 22% | 27% | 47% |
1 | North Carolina | 22% | 14% | 22% | 19% | 12% | 12% | 38% |
3 | LSU | 17% | 51% | 50% | 54% | 47% | 52% | 55% |