NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

BR – BracketResearch.com
538
SN – Sporting News
KP –
kenpom
TPR – The Power Rank
ESPN – ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI)
PS – PlayoffStatus.com

Championship Probabilities

Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
Duke	29%	19%	8%	12%	18%	15%	10%
Kansas	13%	1%	0.8%	0%	0.4%	0.3%	4%
Kentucky	11%	5%	7%	4%	5%	3%	5%
Michigan St.	11%	7%	8%	10%	11%	7%	6%
Virginia	7%	17%	17%	21%	21%	33%	10%
Tennessee	6%	5%	5%	3%	7%	2%	5%
Michigan	5%	4%	6%	5%	6%	2%	5%
Florida St.	3%	1%	1%	0%	0.8%	0.2%	3%
North Carolina	3%	9%	9%	8%	13%	7%	6%
LSU	3%	0.5%	2%	0%	0.3%	0.1%	3%
Gonzaga	2%	15%	14%	15%	12%	24%	5%
Houston	2%	1%	5%	1%	0.5%	0.5%	5%

East Region Winner

Seed	Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
1	Duke	56%	52%	32%	40%	49%	50%	29%
2	Michigan St.	27%	22%	29%	33%	35%	31%	21%
3	LSU	12%	4%	10%	5%	4%	2%	12%
5	Mississippi St.	3%	2%	8%	4%	2%	2%	6%
4	Virginia Tech	0.2%	10%	8%	9%	5%	10%	7%
6	Maryland	0.2%	4%	3%	4%	2%	2%	5%

West Region Winner

Seed	Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
2	Michigan	33%	17%	20%	22%	27%	14%	17%
4	Florida St.	23%	7%	8%	7%	8%	3%	13%
1	Gonzaga	22%	50%	39%	44%	43%	65%	20%
3	Texas Tech	9%	14%	17%	15%	14%	12%	12%
5	Marquette	6%	2%	3%	2%	2%	1%	6%
6	Buffalo	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	1%	11%

South Region Winner

Seed	Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
1	Virginia	36%	49%	45%	49%	54%	67%	29%
2	Tennessee	28%	21%	19%	17%	27%	13%	17%
7	Cincinnati	13%	4%	6%	2%	0%	1%	8%
4	Kansas St.	11%	4%	5%	4%	2%	2%	9%
6	Villanova	3%	5%	4%	2%	2%	1%	8%
3	Purdue	2%	10%	11%	14%	9%	10%	8%

Midwest Region Winner

Seed	Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
4	Kansas	34%	8%	6%	6%	6%	6%	13%
2	Kentucky	33%	24%	26%	23%	26%	24%	18%
1	North Carolina	13%	35%	30%	37%	47%	40%	21%
3	Houston	10%	10%	19%	9%	7%	9%	16%
6	Iowa St.	5%	6%	3%	6%	6%	6%	5%
5	Auburn	3%	11%	8%	9%	4%	9%	7%

First Round Upsets

Seed	Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
10	Minnesota	62%	32%	40%	34%	29%	25%	49%
10	Seton Hall	59%	37%	41%	32%	36%	23%	42%
12	Oregon	49%	40%	37%	32%	26%	32%	37%
13	Saint Louis	43%	11%	30%	15%	13%	10%	33%
14	Old Dominion	41%	12%	22%	12%	11%	8%	37%
11	St. Mary’s (CA)	37%	25%	42%	48%	30%	38%	36%
11	Arizona St.	34%	18%	48%	15%	13%	13%
10	Florida	32%	42%	35%	48%	41%	44%	37%
11	Belmont	29%	38%	50%	20%	18%	22%	44%
11	St. John’s (NY)	24%	12%	9%	7%	12%	32%
13	UC Irvine	24%	23%	33%	27%	17%	23%	36%
12	Liberty	18%	21%	22%	29%	23%	23%	36%
12	New Mexico St.	16%	23%	34%	28%	24%	20%	42%
10	Iowa	12%	32%	37%	47%	51%	40%	38%
11	Ohio St.	12%	33%	42%	34%	26%	27%	38%
12	Murray St.	11%	36%	42%	37%	30%	34%	42%

Cinderella Potential – Chance of 11+ seeds reaching the Sweet 16

Seed	Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
12	Oregon	21%	19%	16%	14%	11%	16%	15%
11	St. Mary’s (CA)	17%	8%	14%	18%	7%	10%	14%
14	Old Dominion	16%	2%	8%	3%	2%	1%	16%
11	Arizona St.	11%	5%	15%	3%	2%	2%
13	Saint Louis	10%	3%	12%	4%	3%	2%	13%
11	Belmont	3%	16%	20%	7%	6%	9%	17%
11	Ohio St	1%	12%	10%	13%	8%	9%	12%
12	Murray St	1%	11%	15%	13%	7%	10%	16%
12	New Mexico St	2%	9%	14%	11%	7%	6%	17%
13	UC Irvine	8%	7%	12%	7%	3%	5%	16%

Potential Bracket Busters – 6+ seeds reaching the Elite 8

Seed	Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
7	Cincinnati	28%	11%	14%	7%	3%	6%	16%
6	Iowa St.	13%	15%	8%	16%	17%	16%	11%
6	Buffalo	11%	9%	8%	11%	10%	8%	20%
6	Villanova	10%	15%	12%	8%	9%	8%	17%
7	Nevada	7%	10%	13%	6%	5%	7%	14%
12	Oregon	7%	3%	3%	3%	1%	1%	5%
6	Maryland	2%	13%	8%	12%	9%	9%	11%
7	Louisville	1%	11%	10%	10%	9%	11%	8%

Potential Busts – most likely 1-3 seeds to not reach the Sweet 16

Seed	Team	BR	538	SN	KP	TPR	ESPN	PS
3	Purdue	72%	49%	51%	41%	38%	34%	65%
3	Texas Tech	43%	35%	35%	37%	35%	30%	56%
3	Houston	42%	47%	35%	52%	50%	48%	48%
2	Tennessee	39%	31%	38%	33%	18%	28%	49%
2	Michigan	22%	31%	35%	31%	22%	27%	47%
1	North Carolina	22%	14%	22%	19%	12%	12%	38%
3	LSU	17%	51%	50%	54%	47%	52%	55%