NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

Championship Probabilities

TeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
Duke29%19%8%12%18%15%10%
Kansas13%1%0.8%0%0.4%0.3%4%
Kentucky11%5%7%4%5%3%5%
Michigan St.11%7%8%10%11%7%6%
Virginia7%17%17%21%21%33%10%
Tennessee6%5%5%3%7%2%5%
Michigan5%4%6%5%6%2%5%
Florida St.3%1%1%0%0.8%0.2%3%
North Carolina3%9%9%8%13%7%6%
LSU3%0.5%2%0%0.3%0.1%3%
Gonzaga2%15%14%15%12%24%5%
Houston2%1%5%1%0.5%0.5%5%

East Region Winner

SeedTeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
1Duke56%52%32%40%49%50%29%
2Michigan St.27%22%29%33%35%31%21%
3LSU12%4%10%5%4%2%12%
5Mississippi St.3%2%8%4%2%2%6%
4Virginia Tech0.2%10%8%9%5%10%7%
6Maryland0.2%4%3%4%2%2%5%

West Region Winner

SeedTeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
2Michigan33%17%20%22%27%14%17%
4Florida St.23%7%8%7%8%3%13%
1Gonzaga22%50%39%44%43%65%20%
3Texas Tech9%14%17%15%14%12%12%
5Marquette6%2%3%2%2%1%6%
6Buffalo3%3%3%3%3%1%11%

South Region Winner

SeedTeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
1Virginia36%49%45%49%54%67%29%
2Tennessee28%21%19%17%27%13%17%
7Cincinnati13%4%6%2%0%1%8%
4Kansas St.11%4%5%4%2%2%9%
6Villanova3%5%4%2%2%1%8%
3Purdue2%10%11%14%9%10%8%

Midwest Region Winner

SeedTeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
4Kansas34%8%6%6%6%6%13%
2Kentucky33%24%26%23%26%24%18%
1North Carolina13%35%30%37%47%40%21%
3Houston10%10%19%9%7%9%16%
6Iowa St.5%6%3%6%6%6%5%
5Auburn3%11%8%9%4%9%7%

First Round Upsets

SeedTeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
10Minnesota62%32%40%34%29%25%49%
10Seton Hall59%37%41%32%36%23%42%
12Oregon49%40%37%32%26%32%37%
13Saint Louis43%11%30%15%13%10%33%
14Old Dominion41%12%22%12%11%8%37%
11St. Mary’s (CA)37%25%42%48%30%38%36%
11Arizona St.34%18%48%15%13%13%
10Florida32%42%35%48%41%44%37%
11Belmont29%38%50%20%18%22%44%
11St. John’s (NY)24%12%9%7%12%32%
13UC Irvine24%23%33%27%17%23%36%
12Liberty18%21%22%29%23%23%36%
12New Mexico St.16%23%34%28%24%20%42%
10Iowa12%32%37%47%51%40%38%
11Ohio St.12%33%42%34%26%27%38%
12Murray St.11%36%42%37%30%34%42%

Cinderella Potential – Chance of 11+ seeds reaching the Sweet 16

SeedTeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
12Oregon21%19%16%14%11%16%15%
11St. Mary’s (CA)17%8%14%18%7%10%14%
14Old Dominion16%2%8%3%2%1%16%
11Arizona St.11%5%15%3%2%2%
13Saint Louis10%3%12%4%3%2%13%
11Belmont3%16%20%7%6%9%17%
11Ohio St1%12%10%13%8%9%12%
12Murray St1%11%15%13%7%10%16%
12New Mexico St2%9%14%11%7%6%17%
13UC Irvine8%7%12%7%3%5%16%

Potential Bracket Busters – 6+ seeds reaching the Elite 8

SeedTeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
7Cincinnati28%11%14%7%3%6%16%
6Iowa St.13%15%8%16%17%16%11%
6Buffalo11%9%8%11%10%8%20%
6Villanova10%15%12%8%9%8%17%
7Nevada7%10%13%6%5%7%14%
12Oregon7%3%3%3%1%1%5%
6Maryland2%13%8%12%9%9%11%
7Louisville1%11%10%10%9%11%8%

Potential Busts – most likely 1-3 seeds to not reach the Sweet 16

SeedTeamBR538SNKPTPRESPNPS
3Purdue72%49%51%41%38%34%65%
3Texas Tech43%35%35%37%35%30%56%
3Houston42%47%35%52%50%48%48%
2Tennessee39%31%38%33%18%28%49%
2Michigan22%31%35%31%22%27%47%
1North Carolina22%14%22%19%12%12%38%
3LSU17%51%50%54%47%52%55%

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