Most Likely Cinderellas – 2021

Let’s call a Cinderella team a double-digit seed that reaches the Sweet 16. This means they would pull of at least one but probably two upsets in the first weekend and have glory and praise heaped upon them for the next week before they play in the Sweet 16.  Almost every year, we see at least one Cinderella. Only the 1995 and 2007 tournaments didn’t have one. Last year there was one – the one that I predicted had the best chance – 12-seed Oregon.

Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  Here are this year’s most likely Cinderellas (i.e. teams with at least 10% chance or reaching the Sweet 16):

RegionSeedTeamSweet 16 Prob
Midwest11Syracuse31%
East11Michigan State*24%
Midwest10Rutgers24%
West10VCU14%
East10Maryland13%
South11Utah St.10%
South10Virginia Tech10%
* Assuming Michigan State wins their First Four game against UCLA

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