Most Likely First Round Upsets 2021

It sure is fun to correctly pick the inevitable First Round upsets. This year, both 11-Syracuse and 10-Rutgers are favorites to win their First Round games.

Unfortunately, the prospect of a 12-5 upset isn’t as high as it usually is. We can normally count on at least one. In 2019, we had three and the fourth 12-seed only lost by one! This year, it’s basically a 50/50 chance that we’ll have any.

Here are the double-digit teams with at least a 20% chance to win their First Round game:

RegionSeedTeam2ndRd
Midwest11Syracuse55%
Midwest10Rutgers55%
East11Michigan St*44%
East10Maryland40%
West10VCU39%
South11Utah St.38%
East11UCLA*36%
South10Virginia Tech34%
West11Drake*29%
East12Georgetown22%
West11Wichita St*21%
South12Winthrop21%
Midwest13Liberty20%
* Assuming team wins First Four game to reach the First Round

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