It sure is fun to correctly pick the inevitable First Round upsets. This year, both 11-Syracuse and 10-Rutgers are favorites to win their First Round games.
Unfortunately, the prospect of a 12-5 upset isn’t as high as it usually is. We can normally count on at least one. In 2019, we had three and the fourth 12-seed only lost by one! This year, it’s basically a 50/50 chance that we’ll have any.
Here are the double-digit teams with at least a 20% chance to win their First Round game:
Region | Seed | Team | 2ndRd |
Midwest | 11 | Syracuse | 55% |
Midwest | 10 | Rutgers | 55% |
East | 11 | Michigan St* | 44% |
East | 10 | Maryland | 40% |
West | 10 | VCU | 39% |
South | 11 | Utah St. | 38% |
East | 11 | UCLA* | 36% |
South | 10 | Virginia Tech | 34% |
West | 11 | Drake* | 29% |
East | 12 | Georgetown | 22% |
West | 11 | Wichita St* | 21% |
South | 12 | Winthrop | 21% |
Midwest | 13 | Liberty | 20% |