To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. You’ll be glad you saw this post!
I enhanced my super amazing tournament computer model, and the simulation results are in.
| Region | Seed | Team | Probability |
| East | 1 | Michigan* | 25% |
| Midwest | 1 | Illinois | 19% |
| West | 1 | Gonzaga | 15% |
| South | 1 | Baylor | 10% |
| South | 4 | Purdue | 3.7% |
| East | 2 | Alabama | 3.6% |
| South | 2 | Ohio St. | 3.0% |
| Midwest | 2 | Houston | 2.6% |
| West | 3 | Kansas | 2.2% |
| West | 2 | Iowa | 2.2% |
| West | 4 | Virginia | 2.0% |
| South | 3 | Arkansas | 1.8% |
| Other | 9.3% |
The super amazing fantastic tournament computer model likes Michigan. I added the asterisk, because Michigan will be playing without a key player (Isaiah Livers), and the model doesn’t account for injuries. Factor in the absence of Livers.
Note: The teams listed above include those with at least 1% chance of winning it all. There’s still a 9% the winner comes from the rest of the field.
The East region has the highest probability of producing the champion.
| Region | Probability |
| East | 32% |
| Midwest | 25% |
| West | 23% |
| South | 21% |