Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits – 2021

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. 

Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  This year, we have 2 top-seeded teams that are likely not going to survive the first weekend (greater than 50% chance). Here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. 

RegionSeedTeamBust Prob
Midwest3West Virginia58%
East3Texas57%
Midwest2Houston46%
West3Kansas45%
West2Iowa41%

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