Computer Model Composite – NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Michigan State, Wichita State, Mt St Mary’s, and Appalachian State win their First Four games.

I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!

IMPORTANT NOTE: the probabilities for 14-Colgate are significantly inflated by the shocking numbers the model from The Power Rank gives them.

I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

Champs

RegionSeedTeamAvgBR538PRPOMESPN
West1Gonzaga37%23%42%65%34%24%
South1Baylor19%20%24%31%8%14%
Midwest1Illinois19%32%27%16%11%10%
East1Michigan11%27%4%7%10%9%
Midwest2Houston10%5%12%12%7%13%
West2Iowa8%6%11%6%6%10%
South2Ohio St.5%8%9%4%4%3%
East2Alabama5%7%7%5%3%3%
South14Colgate5%0%0%24%0%0%
South4Purdue3%11%3%1%1%0%
West3Kansas3%6%4%1%1%1%
West4Virginia2%5%4%0%1%1%
South3Arkansas2%6%3%1%1%1%
Midwest3West Virginia2%1%3%4%1%1%
Midwest5Tennessee2%3%2%1%1%2%
South5Villanova2%2%1%2%1%2%

First Round Upsets

RegionSeedTeamAvgBR538PRPOMESPN
Midwest10Rutgers53%55%58%53%55%47%
South10Virginia Tech42%34%42%44%44%47%
West10VCU42%38%38%45%46%43%
Midwest11Syracuse42%54%39%35%38%43%
East10Maryland40%41%46%38%43%35%
East11Michigan St.40%45%48%35%36%36%
South14Colgate35%16%24%82%22%30%
South11Utah St.34%38%33%35%40%25%
West11Wichita St.26%20%30%23%30%26%
East12Georgetown25%20%30%16%32%27%
Midwest13Liberty24%22%20%15%26%34%
South13North Texas21%10%19%24%27%25%
Midwest12Oregon St.21%14%26%25%26%15%
South12Winthrop21%19%25%25%19%15%
West12UC Santa Barbara21%19%18%17%29%22%
East14Abilene Christian20%18%15%24%25%19%
West13Ohio19%16%14%26%26%14%
East13UNC Greensboro18%11%17%22%19%21%
West14Eastern Wash.13%9%12%15%18%11%
Midwest14Morehead St.11%15%9%8%16%9%
West15Grand Canyon9%12%6%7%9%9%
South15Oral Roberts7%10%6%8%6%6%
East15Iona6%9%5%5%4%7%
Midwest15Cleveland St.6%13%4%5%6%2%

Bracket Busters (6+ seeds reaching the Elite 8)

RegionSeedTeamAvgBR538PRPOMESPN
West6Southern California17%20%14%20%18%14%
South6Texas Tech14%7%19%7%15%24%
East7UConn14%12%12%12%14%17%
East6BYU13%14%11%14%16%12%
South14Colgate13%1%2%57%1%3%
Midwest6San Diego St.11%9%13%8%15%9%
Midwest8Loyola (IL)10%7%7%11%14%10%
Midwest10Rutgers9%19%8%6%8%3%
South7Florida8%15%8%4%9%7%
South9Wisconsin8%9%11%4%11%7%
West7Oregon7%9%9%6%7%5%
East9St. Bonaventure6%5%5%7%8%8%
East8LSU6%5%11%3%6%8%

Cinderellas (10+ seeds reaching the Sweet 16)

RegionSeedTeamAvgBR538PRPOMESPN
South14Colgate20%5%7%71%6%10%
Midwest11Syracuse19%32%17%10%17%20%
Midwest10Rutgers16%26%17%13%16%8%
East11Michigan St.16%26%22%10%12%10%
East10Maryland14%15%18%10%16%11%
South10Virginia Tech12%10%11%12%14%14%
South11Utah St.11%10%14%5%17%8%
West10VCU11%14%9%11%11%8%
East12Georgetown8%4%12%5%12%9%
Midwest12Oregon St.7%4%10%6%9%5%
West11Wichita St.6%5%10%7%8%3%
West12UC Santa Barbara6%5%4%6%10%5%

Busts (Top 1-3 seeds not reaching the Sweet 16)

RegionSeedTeamAvgBR538PRPOMESPN
South3Arkansas61%38%60%90%56%63%
East3Texas56%61%51%56%60%51%
Midwest3West Virginia51%60%50%37%56%52%
West3Kansas50%45%47%54%56%48%

Dark Horse Final Four (5+ seeds reaching the Final Four)

RegionSeedTeamAvgBR538PRPOMESPN
East5Colorado7%4%8%11%7%7%
Midwest5Tennessee7%8%6%4%7%11%
South14Colgate7%0%0%34%0%1%
South5Villanova7%4%4%5%10%12%
South6Texas Tech5%1%7%2%6%10%
East7UConn5%4%5%4%6%7%
East6BYU5%4%5%4%6%4%
West6Southern California5%8%4%3%5%4%
Midwest8Loyola (IL)4%3%3%5%7%4%
South9Wisconsin4%5%6%1%6%3%
West5Creighton4%4%5%4%3%5%
Midwest6San Diego St.4%3%5%2%6%3%

Composite for All Teams/All Rounds

RegionSeedTeam2ndRdS16E8F4FinalChamp
East1Michigan96%72%54%38%19%11%
East2Alabama94%61%40%19%6%3%
East3Texas80%44%20%8%2%1%
East4Florida St.82%46%16%8%2%1%
East5Colorado75%42%15%7%2%1%
East6BYU60%32%13%5%1%
East7UConn60%25%14%5%1%
East8LSU50%14%6%3%1%
East9St. Bonaventure50%14%6%3%1%
East10Maryland40%14%6%2%
East11Michigan St.40%16%5%2%
East12Georgetown25%8%2%
East13UNC Greensboro18%4%1%
East14Abilene Christian20%6%1%
East15Iona6%1%
East16Mt. St. Mary’s5%1%
Midwest1Illinois96%73%57%38%23%12%
Midwest2Houston94%71%50%27%14%6%
Midwest3West Virginia89%49%19%7%2%1%
Midwest4Oklahoma St.76%39%11%5%1%
Midwest5Tennessee79%49%16%7%3%1%
Midwest6San Diego St.58%30%11%4%1%
Midwest7Clemson47%12%6%2%1%
Midwest8Loyola-Chicago61%18%10%4%2%
Midwest9Georgia Tech39%7%3%1%
Midwest10Rutgers53%16%9%3%1%
Midwest11Syracuse42%19%6%2%
Midwest12Oregon St.21%7%1%
Midwest13Liberty24%6%1%
Midwest14Morehead St.11%2%
Midwest15Cleveland St.6%1%
Midwest16Drexel4%
South1Baylor96%73%55%38%23%11%
South2Ohio St.93%66%37%16%8%3%
South3Arkansas65%39%20%7%3%1%
South4Purdue79%46%16%9%4%2%
South5Villanova79%42%14%7%3%1%
South6Texas Tech66%31%14%5%2%1%
South7Florida58%21%8%2%1%
South8North Carolina44%11%5%2%1%
South9Wisconsin56%16%8%4%2%1%
South10Virginia Tech42%12%4%1%
South11Utah St.34%11%3%1%
South12Winthrop21%6%1%
South13North Texas21%6%1%
South14Colgate35%20%13%7%5%2%
South15Oral Roberts7%1%
South16Hartford3%
West1Gonzaga98%88%72%56%42%30%
West2Iowa91%70%47%18%10%5%
West3Kansas87%50%23%7%3%1%
West4Virginia81%47%13%7%3%1%
West5Creighton79%43%9%4%2%1%
West6Southern California75%40%17%5%2%1%
West7Oregon58%18%7%1%1%
West8Oklahoma52%6%2%1%
West9Missouri48%6%3%1%
West10VCU42%11%3%1%
West11Wichita St.26%6%2%
West12UC Santa Barbara21%6%1%
West13Ohio19%4%
West14Eastern Wash.13%3%
West15Grand Canyon9%2%
West16Appalachian St.2%

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