I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Michigan State, Wichita State, Mt St Mary’s, and Appalachian State win their First Four games.
I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!
IMPORTANT NOTE: the probabilities for 14-Colgate are significantly inflated by the shocking numbers the model from The Power Rank gives them.
I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
Champs
Region Seed Team Avg BR 538 PR POM ESPN West 1 Gonzaga 37% 23% 42% 65% 34% 24% South 1 Baylor 19% 20% 24% 31% 8% 14% Midwest 1 Illinois 19% 32% 27% 16% 11% 10% East 1 Michigan 11% 27% 4% 7% 10% 9% Midwest 2 Houston 10% 5% 12% 12% 7% 13% West 2 Iowa 8% 6% 11% 6% 6% 10% South 2 Ohio St. 5% 8% 9% 4% 4% 3% East 2 Alabama 5% 7% 7% 5% 3% 3% South 14 Colgate 5% 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% South 4 Purdue 3% 11% 3% 1% 1% 0% West 3 Kansas 3% 6% 4% 1% 1% 1% West 4 Virginia 2% 5% 4% 0% 1% 1% South 3 Arkansas 2% 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% Midwest 3 West Virginia 2% 1% 3% 4% 1% 1% Midwest 5 Tennessee 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% South 5 Villanova 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2%
First Round Upsets
Region Seed Team Avg BR 538 PR POM ESPN Midwest 10 Rutgers 53% 55% 58% 53% 55% 47% South 10 Virginia Tech 42% 34% 42% 44% 44% 47% West 10 VCU 42% 38% 38% 45% 46% 43% Midwest 11 Syracuse 42% 54% 39% 35% 38% 43% East 10 Maryland 40% 41% 46% 38% 43% 35% East 11 Michigan St. 40% 45% 48% 35% 36% 36% South 14 Colgate 35% 16% 24% 82% 22% 30% South 11 Utah St. 34% 38% 33% 35% 40% 25% West 11 Wichita St. 26% 20% 30% 23% 30% 26% East 12 Georgetown 25% 20% 30% 16% 32% 27% Midwest 13 Liberty 24% 22% 20% 15% 26% 34% South 13 North Texas 21% 10% 19% 24% 27% 25% Midwest 12 Oregon St. 21% 14% 26% 25% 26% 15% South 12 Winthrop 21% 19% 25% 25% 19% 15% West 12 UC Santa Barbara 21% 19% 18% 17% 29% 22% East 14 Abilene Christian 20% 18% 15% 24% 25% 19% West 13 Ohio 19% 16% 14% 26% 26% 14% East 13 UNC Greensboro 18% 11% 17% 22% 19% 21% West 14 Eastern Wash. 13% 9% 12% 15% 18% 11% Midwest 14 Morehead St. 11% 15% 9% 8% 16% 9% West 15 Grand Canyon 9% 12% 6% 7% 9% 9% South 15 Oral Roberts 7% 10% 6% 8% 6% 6% East 15 Iona 6% 9% 5% 5% 4% 7% Midwest 15 Cleveland St. 6% 13% 4% 5% 6% 2%
Bracket Busters (6+ seeds reaching the Elite 8)
Region Seed Team Avg BR 538 PR POM ESPN West 6 Southern California 17% 20% 14% 20% 18% 14% South 6 Texas Tech 14% 7% 19% 7% 15% 24% East 7 UConn 14% 12% 12% 12% 14% 17% East 6 BYU 13% 14% 11% 14% 16% 12% South 14 Colgate 13% 1% 2% 57% 1% 3% Midwest 6 San Diego St. 11% 9% 13% 8% 15% 9% Midwest 8 Loyola (IL) 10% 7% 7% 11% 14% 10% Midwest 10 Rutgers 9% 19% 8% 6% 8% 3% South 7 Florida 8% 15% 8% 4% 9% 7% South 9 Wisconsin 8% 9% 11% 4% 11% 7% West 7 Oregon 7% 9% 9% 6% 7% 5% East 9 St. Bonaventure 6% 5% 5% 7% 8% 8% East 8 LSU 6% 5% 11% 3% 6% 8%
Cinderellas (10+ seeds reaching the Sweet 16)
Region Seed Team Avg BR 538 PR POM ESPN South 14 Colgate 20% 5% 7% 71% 6% 10% Midwest 11 Syracuse 19% 32% 17% 10% 17% 20% Midwest 10 Rutgers 16% 26% 17% 13% 16% 8% East 11 Michigan St. 16% 26% 22% 10% 12% 10% East 10 Maryland 14% 15% 18% 10% 16% 11% South 10 Virginia Tech 12% 10% 11% 12% 14% 14% South 11 Utah St. 11% 10% 14% 5% 17% 8% West 10 VCU 11% 14% 9% 11% 11% 8% East 12 Georgetown 8% 4% 12% 5% 12% 9% Midwest 12 Oregon St. 7% 4% 10% 6% 9% 5% West 11 Wichita St. 6% 5% 10% 7% 8% 3% West 12 UC Santa Barbara 6% 5% 4% 6% 10% 5%
Busts (Top 1-3 seeds not reaching the Sweet 16)
Region Seed Team Avg BR 538 PR POM ESPN South 3 Arkansas 61% 38% 60% 90% 56% 63% East 3 Texas 56% 61% 51% 56% 60% 51% Midwest 3 West Virginia 51% 60% 50% 37% 56% 52% West 3 Kansas 50% 45% 47% 54% 56% 48%
Dark Horse Final Four (5+ seeds reaching the Final Four)
Region Seed Team Avg BR 538 PR POM ESPN East 5 Colorado 7% 4% 8% 11% 7% 7% Midwest 5 Tennessee 7% 8% 6% 4% 7% 11% South 14 Colgate 7% 0% 0% 34% 0% 1% South 5 Villanova 7% 4% 4% 5% 10% 12% South 6 Texas Tech 5% 1% 7% 2% 6% 10% East 7 UConn 5% 4% 5% 4% 6% 7% East 6 BYU 5% 4% 5% 4% 6% 4% West 6 Southern California 5% 8% 4% 3% 5% 4% Midwest 8 Loyola (IL) 4% 3% 3% 5% 7% 4% South 9 Wisconsin 4% 5% 6% 1% 6% 3% West 5 Creighton 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 5% Midwest 6 San Diego St. 4% 3% 5% 2% 6% 3%
Composite for All Teams/All Rounds
Region Seed Team 2ndRd S16 E8 F4 Final Champ East 1 Michigan 96% 72% 54% 38% 19% 11% East 2 Alabama 94% 61% 40% 19% 6% 3% East 3 Texas 80% 44% 20% 8% 2% 1% East 4 Florida St. 82% 46% 16% 8% 2% 1% East 5 Colorado 75% 42% 15% 7% 2% 1% East 6 BYU 60% 32% 13% 5% 1% East 7 UConn 60% 25% 14% 5% 1% East 8 LSU 50% 14% 6% 3% 1% East 9 St. Bonaventure 50% 14% 6% 3% 1% East 10 Maryland 40% 14% 6% 2% East 11 Michigan St. 40% 16% 5% 2% East 12 Georgetown 25% 8% 2% East 13 UNC Greensboro 18% 4% 1% East 14 Abilene Christian 20% 6% 1% East 15 Iona 6% 1% East 16 Mt. St. Mary’s 5% 1% Midwest 1 Illinois 96% 73% 57% 38% 23% 12% Midwest 2 Houston 94% 71% 50% 27% 14% 6% Midwest 3 West Virginia 89% 49% 19% 7% 2% 1% Midwest 4 Oklahoma St. 76% 39% 11% 5% 1% Midwest 5 Tennessee 79% 49% 16% 7% 3% 1% Midwest 6 San Diego St. 58% 30% 11% 4% 1% Midwest 7 Clemson 47% 12% 6% 2% 1% Midwest 8 Loyola-Chicago 61% 18% 10% 4% 2% Midwest 9 Georgia Tech 39% 7% 3% 1% Midwest 10 Rutgers 53% 16% 9% 3% 1% Midwest 11 Syracuse 42% 19% 6% 2% Midwest 12 Oregon St. 21% 7% 1% Midwest 13 Liberty 24% 6% 1% Midwest 14 Morehead St. 11% 2% Midwest 15 Cleveland St. 6% 1% Midwest 16 Drexel 4% South 1 Baylor 96% 73% 55% 38% 23% 11% South 2 Ohio St. 93% 66% 37% 16% 8% 3% South 3 Arkansas 65% 39% 20% 7% 3% 1% South 4 Purdue 79% 46% 16% 9% 4% 2% South 5 Villanova 79% 42% 14% 7% 3% 1% South 6 Texas Tech 66% 31% 14% 5% 2% 1% South 7 Florida 58% 21% 8% 2% 1% South 8 North Carolina 44% 11% 5% 2% 1% South 9 Wisconsin 56% 16% 8% 4% 2% 1% South 10 Virginia Tech 42% 12% 4% 1% South 11 Utah St. 34% 11% 3% 1% South 12 Winthrop 21% 6% 1% South 13 North Texas 21% 6% 1% South 14 Colgate 35% 20% 13% 7% 5% 2% South 15 Oral Roberts 7% 1% South 16 Hartford 3% West 1 Gonzaga 98% 88% 72% 56% 42% 30% West 2 Iowa 91% 70% 47% 18% 10% 5% West 3 Kansas 87% 50% 23% 7% 3% 1% West 4 Virginia 81% 47% 13% 7% 3% 1% West 5 Creighton 79% 43% 9% 4% 2% 1% West 6 Southern California 75% 40% 17% 5% 2% 1% West 7 Oregon 58% 18% 7% 1% 1% West 8 Oklahoma 52% 6% 2% 1% West 9 Missouri 48% 6% 3% 1% West 10 VCU 42% 11% 3% 1% West 11 Wichita St. 26% 6% 2% West 12 UC Santa Barbara 21% 6% 1% West 13 Ohio 19% 4% West 14 Eastern Wash. 13% 3% West 15 Grand Canyon 9% 2% West 16 Appalachian St. 2%