Race basics
The matchup
Derby 1-2 rematch: Golden Tempo beat Renegade a head
ML favorite
Renegade (2-1) — the runner-up, not the winner
Live betting (Thu)
Renegade bet to 2-5; Golden Tempo 8-1; Chief Wallabee drifting to 9-1
Top BRIS Prime Power
Renegade 150.5 — model's best horse
The pace
Almost none — only Powershift & Growth Equity have early speed (Quirin 6); both Derby horses are a 0
Derby runners back
5 — Renegade, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Emerging Market
Top BRIS speed fig
103 — Chief Wallabee & Commandment (both pre-Derby)
Distance
1 1/4 mi (same as the Derby) — Saratoga edition, not 1 1/2
Expert consensus board — who the handicappers are playing
Compiled from 12 named public handicappers across Horse Racing Nation (Shifman, Flatter, DeRosa, Ward, Midland), FOX Sports / NYRA (Serling, Wolfendale, Fallica) and America's Best Racing (Curry, Michaels, Reed, Tordjman), plus ABR's historical-trend model. "Win" = their top selection; "Value/LS" = longshot or value horse they're using underneath.
Projected pace map (BRIS run style · Quirin speed points 0–8, from the PP file)
Early/Pressers — E/P
2Powershift Q6 — the intended pacesetter
6Growth Equity Q6 — the other real speed; presses
Pressers/Stalkers — P
3Chief Wallabee Q3 — tactical, sits closest of the live ones
7Commandment Q2 — stalks; doesn't need a hot pace
Closers — S
8Emerging Market Q2 — BRIS says closer, not the "forward" type some expect
5Ottinho Q3 — one-run, wants every yard
1Vitruvian Man Q2 — saves ground from the rail
Deep closers — S · 0 pts
4Renegade Q0 — pure closer; rallied from ~15th in Derby
9Golden Tempo Q0 — last-to-first in Derby; most pace-dependent
What the real Quirin numbers confirm: this is a near speed-less race. Only Powershift and Growth Equity carry meaningful early speed (6 points apiece, both E/P) — and both are there partly to make pace. Everyone else is a presser or slower, and the two Derby principals (Renegade and Golden Tempo) are a flat 0, i.e. pure deep closers. With so little pressure up front, Powershift can likely crawl through soft fractions, which is the nightmare for one-run closers and the dream for the stalkers (Chief Wallabee, Commandment). Note Brown's Growth Equity figures to press alongside Powershift rather than sit — and BRIS pegs Emerging Market as a closer (Q2), not the forward horse some previews assume.
All 9 horses — sortable (click any header)
| PP | Horse | ML | Live (Thu) | Fair | Trainer | Jockey | Style | Quirin | BRIS L3 (new→old) · Max | Key notes / angles |
|---|
Click headers to sort. ML morning line · Live tote odds Thu (win pool ~$141K, very early) · Fair DeRosa's fair line. Style & Quirin speed points (0–8) are the actual BRIS values from the Belmont PP file (BMT0606.drf). BRIS L3 = last three BRIS Speed figures, newest first (bold = most recent); Max = best BRIS Speed in the last 10 starts.
BRIS composite metrics & connection angles (from the PP file — sortable)
| PP | Horse | PP rank | Prime Power | Best fig @ dist | Days since | T/J combo (win% · $2 ROI) | Mud ped. | Read |
|---|
Prime Power is BRIS's all-in-one rating (speed + pace + class + form + connections); a ~1-point edge is meaningful and the top 5 here are bunched inside ~3.5 points. Best fig @ dist = top BRIS Speed earned at today's distance band ("—" = none yet at the trip). T/J combo = this trainer-jockey pairing's record; a positive $2 ROI means the pairing has historically returned a profit (a genuine, if small, edge), while a deeply negative ROI usually flags an overbet pairing. Mud ped. only matters if it rains — forecast is fast/dry, but one outlet flagged a shower risk.
Pedigree & distance aptitude (1 1/4 mi, dirt)
| PP | Horse | Sire (sire line) | Stud fee | Dam — Broodmare sire | Dist. | Pedigree read for 10 furlongs |
|---|
Dist. pill: A = bred to relish 1 1/4 mi+ · B = should get the trip · C = stamina is the question. Stud fees from the PP file where listed. Sire/broodmare-sire distance records are established Thoroughbred history.
Exotic-bet helper
Win-pool anchors (most-picked on top): Emerging Market (8), Renegade (4), Commandment (7)
Value / longshots experts are tagging: Growth Equity (6), Powershift (2), Chief Wallabee (3)
The core contrarian angle: Ed DeRosa & others argue the real value is fading the Derby exacta (Golden Tempo + Renegade), since both get overbet. DeRosa's key play: a 2-3-6-7-8 exacta box that throws out both 4 and 9.
Sample structures (from public handicappers):
- Curry (ABR) $5 Tri — 4 / 7 / 3,8,9 and 4 / 3,8,9 / 7 ($30)
- Michaels (ABR) $1 Tri box — 2,3,4,8 ($24) + $5 Tri 8 / 2,3,4 / 2,3,4 ($30)
- Reed (ABR) $2 Tri — 4 / 3,6,7,8,9 / 3,6,7,8,9 ($40)
- Tordjman (ABR) $5 Tri box — 2,4,9 ($30) + $1 Tri 4 / 2,3,6,7,9 / 2,3,6,7,9 ($20)
- Midland (HRN) $5 Exacta wheel — 3,8 / 3,4,6,7,8 ($40)
- DeRosa (HRN) Exacta box — 2,3,6,7,8 (eliminates Golden Tempo & Renegade)
Two schools: (1) "Renegade is simply the best horse — key him on top," and (2) "both Derby horses are 0-Quirin closers in a no-pace race — beat them with the speed/tactical types." The PP data leans toward school 2: Powershift (2) and Growth Equity (6) are the only horses guaranteed a forward, ground-saving trip.
Belmont / Saratoga trends & angles
- Venue & distance: 3rd straight year at Saratoga at 1 1/4 miles (Belmont Park reopens Sept. 18 and reclaims the race at 1 1/2 in 2027). Sovereignty set the stakes record of 2:00.69 here last year.
- Tactical speed wins: 15 of the last 20 Belmont winners were within 4 lengths after a half-mile; 8 of 20 were 1st-2nd-3rd early. A flag against the 0-Quirin closers (Golden Tempo, Renegade) in a slow-pace year.
- Favor Derby starters: 16 of the last 25 winners (64%) came out of the Derby; 12 went straight Derby → Belmont. Five Derby horses are back.
- Beware the favorite: The post-time favorite has won just 7 of the last 30 Belmonts (23%). Renegade is the likely chalk.
- Love the longshots: Double-digit longshots have won 12 of the last 30 (40%). Growth Equity, Powershift, Ottinho, Vitruvian Man all qualify.
- Graded-stakes form: 11 of the last 12 winners were proven graded winners. Renegade, Golden Tempo, Emerging Market, Commandment, Ottinho qualify; Powershift (maiden grad) & Growth Equity (G3) are lighter.
- Sire angle: 21 of the last 25 winners were by a stallion who won a G1 at 1 1/8 mi+. Curlin (Golden Tempo) & Quality Road (Ottinho) fit best; Into Mischief (Renegade, Commandment) is the classic knock — but he sired 2025 winner Sovereignty, and both runners have stamina on the bottom.
- Pletcher owns this race: 4 wins since 2007, plus 9 seconds and 4 thirds; ~28% of Belmont top-3 finishers over 20 years are his. He runs two — Renegade and Powershift.
- History bid: A Golden Tempo win = 13th Derby-Belmont double and 2nd female-trained Belmont winner (after Antonucci / Arcangelo 2023). Path mirrors 2025 hero Sovereignty, who also skipped the Preakness.
- Trend model's pick: ABR's seven-angle screen lands on Emerging Market (6 of 7), with Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Powershift next (5 of 7). Renegade matches only 4.
Class & form quick-grade (for each horse)
| PP | Horse | Class | Recent form | Distance fit (pedigree) | Pace fit (this race) | Trainer/Jockey edge | Composite read |
|---|
A → A+ = top contender · B = playable · C = use underneath / fade in win pool. Composite synthesizes the BRIS figures, Quirin points & Prime Power from the PP file, pedigree, the projected slow pace, and the Belmont trend angles.