BracketResearch.com

Data and predictions related to the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket

Bracketology – 2017 Bracket Projection

bracket1

Projection from games played through 2/22/17.

This is not a prediction of which teams the Selection Committee will pick and how they’ll be seeded.  This projection is based on team ratings from my ranking website, TheRankerPit.com (whose ratings have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread). I don’t yet attempt to avoid same-conference matchups in early rounds or give any consideration to regions.

Note:  Check out the Bracket Matrix to compare the bracketology projections of about 100 bracketologists.  My projection was removed from the matrix, because it created too many “outliers,” which is understandable.  My bracket looks at who should be in the tournament based on how good teams really are according to my computer rankings.  Most bracketologists base their brackets on what they think the Selection Committee will  do or on their biased judgement of teams’ current record, strength of schedule, etc.

Bracket Projection

1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Minnesota 8 Middle Tenn.
9 South Carolina 9 VCU
5 Duke 5 SMU
12 Utah/Louisiana Tech 12 Syracuse/Xavier
4 Florida St. 4 Kansas
13 Nevada 13 Vermont
6 Arizona 6 Butler
11 Arkansas 11 Northwestern
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Belmont 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Creighton 7 Iowa St.
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 UCLA 2 Wichita St.
15 New Mexico St. 15 Winthrop
1 Kentucky 1 North Carolina
16 Wagner/Texas Southern 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 Michigan 8 Texas Tech
9 Indiana 9 Rhode Island
5 Baylor 5 Wisconsin
12 Monmouth 12 UNC Wilmington
4 St. Mary’s (CA) 4 Purdue
13 Valparaiso 13 Princeton
6 Oklahoma St. 6 Notre Dame
11 Wake Forest 11 Kansas St.
3 Virginia 3 Villanova
14 Ohio 14 Bucknell
7 Houston 7 Dayton
10 East Tenn. St. 10 Marquette
2 Florida 2 Louisville
15 IPFW 15 FGCU

Overall Seeds

1 Gonzaga
2 West Virginia
3 North Carolina
4 Kentucky
5 UCLA
6 Wichita St.
7 Louisville
8 Florida
9 Oregon
10 Cincinnati
11 Villanova
12 Virginia
13 Florida St.
14 Kansas
15 Purdue
16 St. Mary’s (CA)
17 Duke
18 SMU
19 Wisconsin
20 Baylor
21 Arizona
22 Butler
23 Notre Dame
24 Oklahoma St.
25 Creighton
26 Iowa St.
27 Dayton
28 Houston
29 Minnesota
30 Middle Tenn.
31 Texas Tech
32 Michigan
33 South Carolina
34 VCU
35 Rhode Island
36 Indiana
37 Miami (FL)
38 California
39 Marquette
40 East Tenn. St.
41 Arkansas
42 Northwestern
43 Kansas St.
44 Wake Forest
45 Utah
46 Louisiana Tech
47 Syracuse
48 Xavier
49 UNC Wilmington
50 Monmouth
51 Nevada
52 Vermont
53 Princeton
54 Valparaiso
55 Belmont
56 Texas-Arlington
57 Bucknell
58 Ohio
59 New Mexico St.
60 Winthrop
61 FGCU
62 IPFW
63 Eastern Wash.
64 UC Irvine
65 N.C. Central
66 A&M-Corpus Chris
67 Texas Southern
68 Wagner

Projected Conference Champions – Automatic Bids

Conference Predicted Champion
America East Vermont
American Athletic Cincinnati
Atlantic 10 Dayton
Atlantic Coast North Carolina
Atlantic Sun FGCU
Big 12 West Virginia
Big East Villanova
Big Sky Eastern Wash.
Big South Winthrop
Big Ten Purdue
Big West UC Irvine
Colonial Athletic Association UNC Wilmington
Conference USA Middle Tenn.
Horizon League Valparaiso
Ivy League Princeton
Metro Atlantic Athletic Monmouth
Mid-American Ohio
Mid-Eastern Athletic N.C. Central
Missouri Valley Wichita St.
Mountain West Nevada
Northeast Wagner
Ohio Valley Belmont
Pac-12 UCLA
Patriot League Bucknell
Southeastern Kentucky
Southern East Tenn. St.
Southland A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwestern Athletic Texas Southern
Sun Belt Texas-Arlington
Summit League IPFW
West Coast Gonzaga
Western Athletic New Mexico St.

Last Four In – the last four teams projected to earn at-large bids

  • Utah
  • Louisiana Tech
  • Syracuse
  • Xavier

First Four Out – the best four teams projected to be just short of getting at-large bids

  • TCU
  • Maryland
  • Illinois State
  • BYU

Next Four Out – the next four best teams

  • Tennessee
  • Michigan State
  • USC
  • Georgia

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