Data and predictions related to the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket

Bracketology – 2017 Bracket Projection

Final Bracket Projection

From games played through 3/12/17.

This projection is based on team ratings from my ranking website, (whose ratings have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread). I used those ratings as a starting point and made adjustments based off of projections from other bracketologists.  I don’t yet attempt to avoid same-conference matchups in early rounds or give any consideration to regions.

Check out the Bracket Matrix to compare the bracketology projections of about 100 bracketologists.

Bracket Projection

1 Gonzaga 1 North Carolina
16 Jacksonville St. 16 Texas Southern
8 Dayton 8 VCU
9 Northwestern 9 Maryland
5 Florida 5 SMU
12 Wake Forest/Providence 12 East Tenn. St.
4 West Virginia 4 Notre Dame
13 Nevada 13 Princeton
6 St. Mary’s (CA) 6 Iowa St.
11 Michigan St. 11 Seton Hall
3 Louisville 3 UCLA
14 Winthrop 14 FGCU
7 Wichita St. 7 Oklahoma St.
10 Marquette 10 Vanderbilt
2 Kentucky 2 Oregon
15 Troy 15 Kent St.
1 Kansas 1 Villanova
16 UC Davis/New Orleans 16 Mt. St. Mary’s/South Dakota St.
8 South Carolina 8 Miami (FL)
9 Virginia Tech 9 Arkansas
5 Wisconsin 5 Virginia
12 UNC Wilmington 12 Vermont
4 Cincinnati 4 Purdue
13 New Mexico St. 13 Bucknell
6 Butler 6 Michigan
11 Rhode Island/Kansas St. 11 USC
3 Baylor 3 Florida St.
14 N.C. Central 14 Iona
7 Creighton 7 Minnesota
10 Middle Tenn. 10 Xavier
2 Arizona 2 Duke
15 Northern Ky. 15 North Dakota

Overall Seeds

1 Gonzaga
2 North Carolina
3 Villanova
4 Kansas
5 Kentucky
6 Oregon
7 Duke
8 Arizona
9 Louisville
11 Florida St.
12 Baylor
13 West Virginia
14 Notre Dame
15 Purdue
16 Cincinnati
17 Florida
18 SMU
19 Virginia
20 Wisconsin
21 St. Mary’s (CA)
22 Iowa St.
23 Michigan
24 Butler
25 Wichita St.
26 Oklahoma St.
27 Minnesota
28 Creighton
29 Dayton
30 VCU
31 Miami (FL)
32 South Carolina
33 Northwestern
34 Maryland
35 Arkansas
36 Virginia Tech
37 Marquette
38 Vanderbilt
39 Xavier
40 Middle Tenn.
41 Michigan St.
42 Seton Hall
43 USC
44 Rhode Island
45 Kansas St.
46 Wake Forest
47 Providence
48 East Tenn. St.
49 Vermont
50 UNC Wilmington
51 Nevada
52 Princeton
53 Bucknell
54 New Mexico St.
55 Winthrop
57 Iona
58 N.C. Central
59 Troy
60 Kent St.
61 North Dakota
62 Northern Ky.
63 Jacksonville St.
64 Texas Southern
65 South Dakota St.
66 Mt. St. Mary’s
67 New Orleans
68 UC Davis

Projected Conference Champions – Automatic Bids

Teams in bold have secured automatic bids

Conference Predicted Champion
America East Vermont
American Athletic SMU
Atlantic 10 VCU
Atlantic Coast Duke
Atlantic Sun FGCU
Big 12 Iowa State
Big East Villanova
Big Sky North Dakota
Big South Winthrop
Big Ten Wisconsin
Big West UC Davis
Colonial Athletic Association UNC Wilmington
Conference USA Middle Tenn.
Horizon League Northern Ky.
Ivy League Princeton
Metro Atlantic Athletic Iona
Mid-American Kent State
Mid-Eastern Athletic N.C. Central
Missouri Valley Wichita St.
Mountain West Nevada
Northeast Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley Jacksonville St.
Pac-12 Arizona
Patriot League Bucknell
Southeastern Kentucky
Southern East Tenn. St.
Southland New Orleans
Southwestern Athletic Texas Southern
Sun Belt Troy
Summit League South Dakota St.
West Coast Gonzaga
Western Athletic New Mexico St.

Last Four In – the last four teams projected to earn at-large bids

  • Rhode Island
  • Kansas State
  • Wake Forest
  • Providence

First Four Out – the best four teams projected to be just short of getting at-large bids

  • California
  • Indiana
  • Syracuse
  • Illinois State

Next Four Out – the next four best teams

  • Texas Tech
  • Utah
  • TCU
  • BYU

7 thoughts on “Bracketology – 2017 Bracket Projection

  1. I think you need a new computer. Seton hall is a lock and you have them as the. Next four out. LMAO…..every other site has them easily in. There are other laughable seedings in your bracket as well. Too many to mention. LOL


    1. You can’t, thank for your comment! You’re totally right about my projection for Seton Hall. I based my projections (maybe too much) on my computer ratings for all of the teams. I think my model may need some tweaking to account more for strength of schedule. Nonetheless, playing Villanova close and winning by 9 @ Hawaii isn’t impressing me much. I think I might be the one laughing when Seton Hall makes their early exit from the tournament. Joking aside, I will be adjusting my bracket projection soon to how I think the committee will make their decisions. Stay tuned! And thanks, again, for the comment!


      1. Joking aside, both providence and Michigan state are getting in as well. also Houston is not making the tournament. I believe you have them as a 9 seed. Just a few more observations


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