Bracketology – Bracket Projection

Bracket Projection

From games played through 2/18/19.

This a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, not what it would look like if the season ended today.

Check out the Bracket Matrix to compare the bracketology projections of many bracketologists.

Bracket Projection

1 Duke   1 Gonzaga
16 F Dickinson   16 Bucknell
8 Kansas St   8 Mississippi
9 Texas   9 Clemson
5 Kansas   5 Marquette
12 Nebraska/San Fransco   12 Toledo/Utah State
4 Florida St   4 VA Tech
13 Lipscomb   13 Hofstra
6 Nevada   6 Buffalo
11 St Marys   11 Ohio State
3 Houston   3 Michigan
14 GA Southern   14 Old Dominion
7 NC State   7 Wisconsin
10 Washington   10 TX Christian
2 Tennessee   2 Michigan St
15 UC Irvine   15 Montana
1 Kentucky   1 Virginia
16 Sam Hous St/Norfolk St   16 Radford/Texas Southern
8 Florida   8 Cincinnati
9 Baylor   9 VCU
5 Auburn   5 Miss State
12 Murray St   12 N Mex State
4 Purdue   4 Iowa State
13 Yale   13 Vermont
6 Maryland   6 Villanova
11 Oklahoma   11 Wofford
3 Texas Tech   3 LSU
14 N Kentucky   14 S Dakota St
7 Iowa   7 Syracuse
10 Central FL   10 St Johns
2 Louisville   2 N Carolina
15 Loyola-Chi   15 Rider

Overall Seed List

1 Duke
2 Gonzaga
3 Virginia
4 Kentucky
5 Tennessee
6 Michigan St
7 N Carolina
8 Louisville
9 Houston
10 Michigan
11 LSU
12 Texas Tech
13 Florida St
14 VA Tech
15 Iowa State
16 Purdue
17 Kansas
18 Marquette
19 Miss State
20 Auburn
21 Nevada
22 Buffalo
23 Villanova
24 Maryland
25 NC State
26 Wisconsin
27 Syracuse
28 Iowa
29 Kansas St
30 Mississippi
31 Cincinnati
32 Florida
33 Texas
34 Clemson
35 VCU
36 Baylor
37 Washington
38 TX Christian
39 St Johns
40 Central FL
41 St Marys
42 Ohio State
43 Wofford
44 Oklahoma
45 Nebraska
46 San Fransco
47 Toledo
48 N Mex State
49 Utah State
50 Murray St
51 Lipscomb
52 Hofstra
53 Vermont
54 Yale
55 GA Southern
56 Old Dominion
57 S Dakota St
58 N Kentucky
59 UC Irvine
60 Montana
61 Rider
62 Loyola-Chi
63 F Dickinson
64 Bucknell
65 Texas Southern
66 Radford
67 Norfolk St
68 Sam Hous St

Last Four In

  • Nebraska
  • San Francisco
  • Toledo
  • Utah State

First Four Out

  • Alabama
  • Fresno State
  • Georgetown
  • Bowling Green

Next Four Out

  • Butler
  • Minnesota
  • Seton Hall
  • Temple

29 thoughts on “Bracketology – Bracket Projection

  1. Henry J Muto

    Kentucky as a 3 seed was laughable. The committee almost gave them a 1 seed today. Probably should stick with ranking the teams as they stand now and not try and predict 6 weeks down the road you would come out looking better though your 47th ranked out of 60 newbies on the site so not sure that will help you out either. I scored more points than anyone 2 out of the last 4 years I don’t have a blog or get paid like Jerry Palm (who I have beat 13 out of the 15 years ) but I post my seed list on multiple sites before the selection Show each year.

    PS Nebraska lost their 2nd best player probably drop them from the bracket now.

    1. gotstremph Post author

      Thank you for the comment. While my specialty and expertise lie in analyzing the teams once they’re in the tournament, I’ve still got a bit of room to grow as a bracketologist.

  2. Henry J Muto

    Kentucky as a 3 seed was laughable. They have been a 2 seed for a while now and the committee almost had them as a 1 seed toady (5th overall).

    1. gotstremph Post author

      That’s a great question, Matthew. Thank you for asking. After a 5-game losing streak, we should definitely be questioning Nebraska’s tournament-worthiness. My quick answer: I think Nebraska is a better team than their record shows, and I project them to finish 9-11 (or better) in the Big Ten, one of the strongest conferences this year. Other metrics are in line with my assessment of Nebraska (NET: 33, BPI: 22, POM: 27, SAG: 21).

      Not so quick answer: My bracket is a prediction of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, not if the tournament started today. I mostly use my own team ratings to project future performance. My numbers indicate Nebraska is good enough to warrant a 6-9 seed, so even according to my own numbers, a 6-seed is probably too optimistic. So I’ll agree with you on that point. My methodology also keeps me from overreacting to a loss or even a recent string of losses. Most bracketologists overreact to “what happened yesterday.” Only 5 days ago, Nebraska was in 91 out of 99 brackets. Now they’re in 62 of 102. All that said, all models are wrong and sometimes very wrong. We have a month of basketball left and Nebraska can get back on track tonight against Maryland (they’re currently a 2.5 point favorite). Let’s see how it goes…

  3. David

    Wondering why Florida State is a 5 seed (18th overall) and Miami is an 11 seed (43rd overall).

    1. gotstremph Post author

      Great question, David. I use my statistical models to project how a team will perform between now and Selection Sunday. As we now are only a week and a half out, there is less uncertainty and I can focus more on what the committee will do. Your timing is perfect – I am shifting several projections tonight, and FSU will be a team with more movement than the rest (along with Miami, Butler, and Arkansas).

    1. gotstremph

      Thanks for the question. I agree Washington has some good wins. ASU has now lost more conference games than they’ve won, so that one’s losing some luster. There are a lot of teams this year with multiple good wins. Looking past the good wins, they’ve had close games against much weaker opponents and too many of their losses were not close. Another thing hurting the Huskies is how the Pac-12 isn’t as strong this year as it often is. If they finish the season strong, they’ll definitely make the tournament. But their performance against some of the middle-range teams isn’t giving me a high level of confidence that they’ll finish strong. I’m excited to see how it plays out!

  4. Brian

    How can providence not possibly be in at this point?

    28 rpi with 5 quad 1 wins..7-4 record in the big east

    1. gotstremph

      Good question, Brian. Thank you for your comment! 103 out of 108 brackets in the matrix have them in. If today was Selection Sunday, I’d have them in too, but we still have a month of basketball left. Providence has a tough final stretch, where they will most likely go 3-4, to finish the season 19-12 (10-8). They have some good wins, but so do lots of other teams. I consider scoring margin, and Providence had some close wins against weaker opponents (Belmont-1 pt, Rider-4 pts, Brown-5 pts, Stony Brook-2 pts). They’re sitting at a 10-seed in the matrix right now, and losing 4 of their last 7 and an early exit from the conference tournament would very well knock them out.

      1. Brian

        Wow so you are banking on them losing 5 out of 8, even though they are 7-4 with the third toughest sos so far in the BE.
        Pretty ridiculous.. only 1 team from the big east has not gotten in with 10 wins in the last 5+ years… andy you think pc would be one even though they would finish the year with 5+ quad 1 wins, an rpi of around 40 and sos under 20.

        Okay so this isn’t worth my time.

      2. gotstremph

        Probably more like 5 out of 9 (they’ll win in the first round of the Big East tournament). They might still make it. You’re right about the 10-win trend. Last year was the perfect example. 4 teams were 10-8 in conference and all made it in. 11-seed Providence lost their play-in game. 6-Creighton, 9-Seton Hall, and 10-Marquette all lost in the first round. Maybe the committee will think twice this time?
        Seriously, though, it’s really too soon to say Providence is a lock. Please check back in 4 weeks.

  5. TJ

    It is time to adjust your team rankings when you are consistently sliding Duke up to the top line. They lost to Virginia — you keep them on the top line. They lose to St. Johns — you keep them on the top line.

    Any ranking system that still projects them to be seeded ahead of Virginia is just wrong.

    1. gotstremph

      Thanks for the comment, TJ. I agree that I need to adjust. In fact, I was in the middle of updating when you commented. I disagree, however, that projecting Duke ahead of Virginia is absolutely wrong. There’s still a whole month of the season left before Selection Sunday. I’ll agree with “probably wrong” but not “just wrong.”

  6. GPJ73

    Curious why you would have Old Dominion – with its zero wins over the top 100 RPI or KenPom – over teams like Alabama and Missouri … or, frankly, any of the other teams in your first 8 out. Their resume is *terrible*.

    1. gotstremph

      That’s a really good question. Thank you for bringing that up. This far away from Selection Sunday, my projections are still largely (though not entirely) based on my model’s team ratings, and Old Dominion scores well in a lot of the key team stats that go into that calculation. As we head down the stretch, I will shift more to a prediction of how the committee will make their selections. Old Dominion’s team rating is close behind MTSU’s rating for tops in C-USA, so I wouldn’t be surprised if ODU wound up winning the C-USA Tournament and got the automatic bid.

    1. gotstremph

      Great question, Ed. If Selection Sunday was yesterday, Virginia would’ve been given a 1-seed, without a doubt. This projection is my best guess on how the bracket will look on March 11th. Duke and Virginia are really close, which last week proved. My model helps look at the whole season and not put too much weight on any single game. Given the season performance of all teams to this point, Duke scores a little bit better than Virginia. I’m really excited to watch the ACC conference race down the stretch.
      Thanks for the question. Please check back later to see how my projections look as we get closer to Selection Sunday.

  7. You can't Forecast

    I think you need a new computer. Seton hall is a lock and you have them as the. Next four out. LMAO…..every other site has them easily in. There are other laughable seedings in your bracket as well. Too many to mention. LOL

    1. gotstremph

      You can’t, thank for your comment! You’re totally right about my projection for Seton Hall. I based my projections (maybe too much) on my computer ratings for all of the teams. I think my model may need some tweaking to account more for strength of schedule. Nonetheless, playing Villanova close and winning by 9 @ Hawaii isn’t impressing me much. I think I might be the one laughing when Seton Hall makes their early exit from the tournament. Joking aside, I will be adjusting my bracket projection soon to how I think the committee will make their decisions. Stay tuned! And thanks, again, for the comment!

      1. You can't Forecast

        Joking aside, both providence and Michigan state are getting in as well. also Houston is not making the tournament. I believe you have them as a 9 seed. Just a few more observations

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