Bracketology – Bracket Projection

Bracket Projection – Final

From games played through 3/11/18.

Check out the Bracket Matrix to compare the bracketology projections of many bracketologists.

Bracket Projection

1 Villanova 1 Kansas
16 Radford 16 UMBC
8 Missouri 8 Providence
9 Florida St. 9 Virginia Tech
5 Arizona 5 Wichita St.
12 Murray St. 12 Loyola (IL)
4 Auburn 4 Michigan
13 UNC Greensboro 13 Montana
6 Florida 6 Ohio St.
11 Oklahoma/St. Bonaventure 11 St. Mary’s (CA)/UCLA
3 Michigan St. 3 Texas Tech
14 Georgia St. 14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Texas A&M 7 Miami (FL)
10 Texas 10 Butler
2 North Carolina 2 Duke
15 Penn 15 Iona
1 Xavier 1 Virginia
16 N.C. Central/Texas Southern 16 Long Island/Lipscomb
8 Rhode Island 8 Seton Hall
9 North Carolina St. 9 Nevada
5 Clemson 5 Gonzaga
12 Buffalo 12 San Diego St.
4 Houston 4 Kentucky
13 South Dakota St. 13 Bucknell
6 Arkansas 6 TCU
11 New Mexico St. 11 Davidson
3 Tennessee 3 West Virginia
14 Marshall 14 Col. of Charleston
7 Alabama 7 Kansas St.
10 Southern California 10 Creighton
2 Cincinnati 2 Purdue
15 Cal St. Fullerton 15 Wright St.

Overall Seeds

1 Villanova
2 Kansas
3 Virginia
4 Xavier
5 North Carolina
6 Duke
7 Purdue
8 Cincinnati
9 Michigan St.
10 Texas Tech
11 West Virginia
12 Tennessee
13 Auburn
14 Michigan
15 Kentucky
16 Houston
17 Arizona
18 Wichita St.
19 Gonzaga
20 Clemson
21 Florida
22 Ohio St.
23 TCU
24 Arkansas
25 Texas A&M
26 Miami (FL)
27 Kansas St.
28 Alabama
29 Missouri
30 Providence
31 Seton Hall
32 Rhode Island
33 Florida St.
34 Virginia Tech
35 Nevada
36 North Carolina St.
37 Texas
38 Butler
39 Creighton
40 Southern California
41 Oklahoma
42 St. Bonaventure
43 St. Mary’s (CA)
45 Davidson
46 New Mexico St.
47 Murray St.
48 Loyola (IL)
49 San Diego St.
50 Buffalo
51 UNC Greensboro
52 Montana
53 Bucknell
54 South Dakota St.
55 Georgia St.
56 Stephen F. Austin
57 Col. of Charleston
58 Marshall
59 Penn
60 Iona
61 Wright St.
62 Cal St. Fullerton
63 Radford
65 Lipscomb
66 Long Island
67 Texas Southern
68 N.C. Central

Projected Conference Tournament Champions – Automatic Bids

Conference Predicted Champion
America East UMBC
American Athletic Cincinnati
Atlantic 10 Davidson
Atlantic Coast Virginia
Atlantic Sun Lipscomb
Big 12 Kansas
Big East Villanova
Big Sky Montana
Big South Radford
Big Ten Michigan
Big West Cal St. Fullerton
Colonial Athletic Association Col. of Charleston
Conference USA Marshall
Horizon League Wright St.
Ivy League Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Iona
Mid-American Buffalo
Mid-Eastern Athletic N.C. Central
Missouri Valley Loyola (IL)
Mountain West San Diego St.
Northeast Long Island
Ohio Valley Murray St.
Pac-12 Arizona
Patriot League Bucknell
Southeastern Tennessee
Southern UNC Greensboro
Southland Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern Athletic Texas Southern
Sun Belt Georgia St.
Summit League South Dakota St.
West Coast Gonzaga
Western Athletic New Mexico St.

Last Four In – the last four teams projected to earn at-large bids

  • Oklahoma
  • St. Bonaventure
  • St. Mary’s (CA)
  • UCLA

First Four Out – the best four teams projected to be just short of getting at-large bids

  • Louisville
  • Arizona St.
  • Notre Dame
  • MTSU

Next Four Out – the next four best teams

  • Mississippi St.
  • Syracuse
  • Penn St.
  • Baylor

24 thoughts on “Bracketology – Bracket Projection

  1. David

    Wondering why Florida State is a 5 seed (18th overall) and Miami is an 11 seed (43rd overall).

    1. gotstremph Post author

      Great question, David. I use my statistical models to project how a team will perform between now and Selection Sunday. As we now are only a week and a half out, there is less uncertainty and I can focus more on what the committee will do. Your timing is perfect – I am shifting several projections tonight, and FSU will be a team with more movement than the rest (along with Miami, Butler, and Arkansas).

    1. gotstremph

      Thanks for the question. I agree Washington has some good wins. ASU has now lost more conference games than they’ve won, so that one’s losing some luster. There are a lot of teams this year with multiple good wins. Looking past the good wins, they’ve had close games against much weaker opponents and too many of their losses were not close. Another thing hurting the Huskies is how the Pac-12 isn’t as strong this year as it often is. If they finish the season strong, they’ll definitely make the tournament. But their performance against some of the middle-range teams isn’t giving me a high level of confidence that they’ll finish strong. I’m excited to see how it plays out!

  2. Brian

    How can providence not possibly be in at this point?

    28 rpi with 5 quad 1 wins..7-4 record in the big east

    1. gotstremph

      Good question, Brian. Thank you for your comment! 103 out of 108 brackets in the matrix have them in. If today was Selection Sunday, I’d have them in too, but we still have a month of basketball left. Providence has a tough final stretch, where they will most likely go 3-4, to finish the season 19-12 (10-8). They have some good wins, but so do lots of other teams. I consider scoring margin, and Providence had some close wins against weaker opponents (Belmont-1 pt, Rider-4 pts, Brown-5 pts, Stony Brook-2 pts). They’re sitting at a 10-seed in the matrix right now, and losing 4 of their last 7 and an early exit from the conference tournament would very well knock them out.

      1. Brian

        Wow so you are banking on them losing 5 out of 8, even though they are 7-4 with the third toughest sos so far in the BE.
        Pretty ridiculous.. only 1 team from the big east has not gotten in with 10 wins in the last 5+ years… andy you think pc would be one even though they would finish the year with 5+ quad 1 wins, an rpi of around 40 and sos under 20.

        Okay so this isn’t worth my time.

      2. gotstremph

        Probably more like 5 out of 9 (they’ll win in the first round of the Big East tournament). They might still make it. You’re right about the 10-win trend. Last year was the perfect example. 4 teams were 10-8 in conference and all made it in. 11-seed Providence lost their play-in game. 6-Creighton, 9-Seton Hall, and 10-Marquette all lost in the first round. Maybe the committee will think twice this time?
        Seriously, though, it’s really too soon to say Providence is a lock. Please check back in 4 weeks.

  3. TJ

    It is time to adjust your team rankings when you are consistently sliding Duke up to the top line. They lost to Virginia — you keep them on the top line. They lose to St. Johns — you keep them on the top line.

    Any ranking system that still projects them to be seeded ahead of Virginia is just wrong.

    1. gotstremph

      Thanks for the comment, TJ. I agree that I need to adjust. In fact, I was in the middle of updating when you commented. I disagree, however, that projecting Duke ahead of Virginia is absolutely wrong. There’s still a whole month of the season left before Selection Sunday. I’ll agree with “probably wrong” but not “just wrong.”

  4. GPJ73

    Curious why you would have Old Dominion – with its zero wins over the top 100 RPI or KenPom – over teams like Alabama and Missouri … or, frankly, any of the other teams in your first 8 out. Their resume is *terrible*.

    1. gotstremph

      That’s a really good question. Thank you for bringing that up. This far away from Selection Sunday, my projections are still largely (though not entirely) based on my model’s team ratings, and Old Dominion scores well in a lot of the key team stats that go into that calculation. As we head down the stretch, I will shift more to a prediction of how the committee will make their selections. Old Dominion’s team rating is close behind MTSU’s rating for tops in C-USA, so I wouldn’t be surprised if ODU wound up winning the C-USA Tournament and got the automatic bid.

    1. gotstremph

      Great question, Ed. If Selection Sunday was yesterday, Virginia would’ve been given a 1-seed, without a doubt. This projection is my best guess on how the bracket will look on March 11th. Duke and Virginia are really close, which last week proved. My model helps look at the whole season and not put too much weight on any single game. Given the season performance of all teams to this point, Duke scores a little bit better than Virginia. I’m really excited to watch the ACC conference race down the stretch.
      Thanks for the question. Please check back later to see how my projections look as we get closer to Selection Sunday.

  5. You can't Forecast

    I think you need a new computer. Seton hall is a lock and you have them as the. Next four out. LMAO…..every other site has them easily in. There are other laughable seedings in your bracket as well. Too many to mention. LOL

    1. gotstremph

      You can’t, thank for your comment! You’re totally right about my projection for Seton Hall. I based my projections (maybe too much) on my computer ratings for all of the teams. I think my model may need some tweaking to account more for strength of schedule. Nonetheless, playing Villanova close and winning by 9 @ Hawaii isn’t impressing me much. I think I might be the one laughing when Seton Hall makes their early exit from the tournament. Joking aside, I will be adjusting my bracket projection soon to how I think the committee will make their decisions. Stay tuned! And thanks, again, for the comment!

      1. You can't Forecast

        Joking aside, both providence and Michigan state are getting in as well. also Houston is not making the tournament. I believe you have them as a 9 seed. Just a few more observations

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