Data and predictions related to the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket

Bracketology – Bracket Projection

Bracket Projection

From games played through 12/3/17.

This projection is based on team ratings from my ranking website, (whose ratings have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread). I used those ratings as a starting point and made adjustments based off of projections from other bracketologists.  I don’t yet attempt to avoid same-conference matchups in early rounds or give any consideration to regions.

Check out the Bracket Matrix to compare the bracketology projections of many bracketologists.

Bracket Projection

1 Kansas 1 Villanova
16 Liberty 16 Buffalo
8 Oklahoma St. 8 Louisville
9 San Diego St. 9 Missouri
12 Texas 12 Oklahoma/Arizona
4 Kentucky 4 Gonzaga
13 Towson 13 South Dakota
6 Notre Dame 6 Florida St.
11 Murray St. 11 Oregon
3 TCU 3 Minnesota
14 Mercer 14 Vermont
7 Miami (FL) 7 Wichita St.
10 Temple 10 Arkansas
2 Arizona St. 2 Texas A&M
15 Stephen F. Austin 15 FGCU
1 Michigan St. 1 West Virginia
16 N.C. A&T/Prairie View 16 Rider/Bucknell
8 Boise St. 8 St. John’s (NY)
9 Auburn 9 Cincinnati
5 Virginia 5 Florida
12 Maryland 12 Virginia Tech/Maryland
4 Xavier 4 Purdue
13 Texas-Arlington 13 Western Ky.
6 North Carolina 6 UNI
11 Providence 11 Clemson
3 Texas Tech 3 Seton Hall
14 UC Davis 14 Penn
7 Rhode Island 7 Nevada
10 Penn St. 10 Valparaiso
2 Duke 2 Tennessee
15 Wagner 15 Idaho

Overall Seeds

1 Kansas
2 Villanova
3 West Virginia
4 Michigan St.
5 Arizona St.
6 Texas A&M
7 Tennessee
8 Duke
10 Minnesota
11 Seton Hall
12 Texas Tech
13 Kentucky
14 Gonzaga
15 Purdue
16 Xavier
18 SMU
19 Florida
20 Virginia
21 Notre Dame
22 Florida St.
23 UNI
24 North Carolina
25 Miami (FL)
26 Wichita St.
27 Nevada
28 Rhode Island
29 Oklahoma St.
30 Louisville
31 St. John’s (NY)
32 Boise St.
33 San Diego St.
34 Missouri
35 Cincinnati
36 Auburn
37 Temple
38 Arkansas
39 Valparaiso
40 Penn St.
41 Murray St.
42 Oregon
43 Clemson
44 Providence
45 Texas
46 Oklahoma
47 Arizona
48 Virginia Tech
49 New Mexico St.
50 Maryland
51 Towson
52 South Dakota
53 Western Ky.
54 Texas-Arlington
55 Mercer
56 Vermont
57 Penn
58 UC Davis
59 Stephen F. Austin
61 Idaho
62 Wagner
63 Liberty
64 Buffalo
65 Bucknell
66 Rider
67 Prairie View
68 N.C. A&T

Projected Conference Champions – Automatic Bids

Conference Predicted Champion
America East Vermont
American Athletic SMU
Atlantic 10 Rhode Island
Atlantic Coast Duke
Atlantic Sun FGCU
Big 12 Kansas
Big East Villanova
Big Sky Idaho
Big South Liberty
Big Ten Michigan St.
Big West UC Davis
Colonial Athletic Association Towson
Conference USA Western Ky.
Horizon League Valparaiso
Ivy League Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Rider
Mid-American Buffalo
Mid-Eastern Athletic N.C. A&T
Missouri Valley UNI
Mountain West UNLV
Northeast Wagner
Ohio Valley Murray St.
Pac-12 Arizona St.
Patriot League Bucknell
Southeastern Texas A&M
Southern Mercer
Southland Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern Athletic Prairie View
Sun Belt Texas-Arlington
Summit League South Dakota
West Coast Gonzaga
Western Athletic New Mexico St.

Last Four In – the last four teams projected to earn at-large bids

  • Oklahoma
  • Arizona
  • Virginia Tech
  • Maryland

First Four Out – the best four teams projected to be just short of getting at-large bids

  • St. Mary’s
  • Alabama
  • NC State
  • Creighton

Next Four Out – the next four best teams

  • Washington State
  • Utah
  • Middle Tennessee
  • Kansas State

7 thoughts on “Bracketology – Bracket Projection

  1. I think you need a new computer. Seton hall is a lock and you have them as the. Next four out. LMAO…..every other site has them easily in. There are other laughable seedings in your bracket as well. Too many to mention. LOL


    1. You can’t, thank for your comment! You’re totally right about my projection for Seton Hall. I based my projections (maybe too much) on my computer ratings for all of the teams. I think my model may need some tweaking to account more for strength of schedule. Nonetheless, playing Villanova close and winning by 9 @ Hawaii isn’t impressing me much. I think I might be the one laughing when Seton Hall makes their early exit from the tournament. Joking aside, I will be adjusting my bracket projection soon to how I think the committee will make their decisions. Stay tuned! And thanks, again, for the comment!


      1. Joking aside, both providence and Michigan state are getting in as well. also Houston is not making the tournament. I believe you have them as a 9 seed. Just a few more observations


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