Bracketology – Bracket Projection

Bracket Projection – FINAL

From games played through 3/17/19.

This a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, not what it would look like if the season ended today.

Check out the Bracket Matrix to compare the bracketology projections of many bracketologists.

Bracket Projection

1 Duke   1 Gonzaga
16 F Dickinson   16 Gard-Webb
8 Seton Hall   8 VCU
9 Central FL   9 St Marys
5 Miss State   5 Buffalo
12 Texas/St Johns   12 N Mex State
4 VA Tech   4 Purdue
13 Yale   13 Old Dominion
6 Kansas St   6 Louisville
11 Baylor   11 Oregon
3 Texas Tech   3 LSU
14 UC Irvine   14 Liberty
7 Nevada   7 Cincinnati
10 Washington   10 NC State
2 Tennessee   2 Houston
15 Georgia St   15 Abl Christian
         
1 N Carolina   1 Virginia
16 NC Central/Prairie View   16 N Dakota St/Iona
8 Mississippi   8 Florida
9 Syracuse   9 Utah State
5 Wisconsin   5 Iowa State
12 Vermont   12 Murray St
4 Auburn   4 Kansas
13 Northeastrn   13 Saint Louis
6 Villanova   6 Marquette
11 TX Christian/Ohio State   11 Oklahoma
3 Florida St   3 Michigan
14 N Kentucky   14 Montana
7 Wofford   7 Maryland
10 Minnesota   10 Iowa
2 Michigan St   2 Kentucky
15 Bradley   15 Colgate

Overall Seed List

1 Duke
2 Gonzaga
3 Virginia
4 N Carolina
5 Tennessee
6 Houston
7 Kentucky
8 Michigan St
9 Texas Tech
10 LSU
11 Michigan
12 Florida St
13 VA Tech
14 Purdue
15 Kansas
16 Auburn
17 Miss State
18 Buffalo
19 Iowa State
20 Wisconsin
21 Kansas St
22 Louisville
23 Marquette
24 Villanova
25 Nevada
26 Cincinnati
27 Maryland
28 Wofford
29 Seton Hall
30 VCU
31 Florida
32 Mississippi
33 Central FL
34 St Marys
35 Utah State
36 Syracuse
37 Washington
38 NC State
39 Iowa
40 Minnesota
41 Baylor
42 Oregon
43 Oklahoma
44 TX Christian
45 Ohio State
46 Texas
47 N Mex State
48 Murray St
49 St Johns
50 Vermont
51 Yale
52 Old Dominion
53 Saint Louis
54 Northeastrn
55 UC Irvine
56 Liberty
57 Montana
58 N Kentucky
59 Georgia St
60 Abl Christian
61 Colgate
62 Bradley
63 F Dickinson
64 Gard-Webb
65 Iona
66 N Dakota St
67 Prairie View
68 NC Central

Last Four In

  • TCU
  • Ohio State
  • Texas
  • St. John’s

First Four Out

  • Clemson
  • Belmont
  • Memphis
  • Arizona State

Next Four Out

  • Temple
  • Alabama
  • Indiana
  • Nebraska

37 thoughts on “Bracketology – Bracket Projection

  1. Mike

    How is Creighton both an 11 seed and first 4 out? Also interesting that you have Seton Hall nowhere in sight (and I believe you’re the only one on bracketmatrix that has them out right now)…I’m assuming those 2 things are related?

    Reply
    1. gotstremph Post author

      Great catch! Thank you, Mike. I’ve corrected my First Four and Next Four Out lists. A lot of positioning will get sorted out this week. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Big East Tournament plays out. Seton Hall is playing really well lately. Do you think they’ll avenge their 2OT loss to Georgetown on Thursday?

      Reply
      1. Bryan

        Why have St. Mary’s in the tournament? They don’t have a single win against another at-large team. They’re 3-9 against quadrant 1 and 2 teams while Seton Hall has 7 wins against at-large teams in your bracket and is 12-10 against Q1/Q2 teams.

      2. gotstremph Post author

        Thanks for the question, Bryan. A good case can be made for Seton Hall. It seems most bracketologists consider them a lock, which I assume would remain the case even if they lose to Georgetown Thursday night. Looking at Seton Hall’s rank in several of the key advanced metric rating systems gives me pause – especially their NET rank. NET: 62, BPI: 58, KenPom: 59, Sagarin: 51. St. Mary’s is ranked significantly higher in each one (NET: 37, BPI: 39, KenPom: 33, Sagarin: 42). I know the Selection Committee will not only be looking at Q1/Q2 losses, so I’m trying to take everything into consideration. Anyways, these are both bubble teams to me and I’ll be shuffling and sorting those teams until Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if St. Mary’s wins tonight and get’s an auto-bid.

      3. Mike

        I think they’re the better team, but Georgetown will be the more desperate team so it could go either way. I’m in agreement with the majority that Seton Hall is pretty much a lock at this point. I agree that their numbers that you listed below are slightly concerning, but they also have top wins that the majority of the bubble simply can’t compete with. If you look at their scores, they just play a lot of close games, which is related to why their efficiency numbers don’t look very impressive. And I know it’s no longer an official criteria, but their old RPI rank is 46 which would generally have them in fairly safe territory.

  2. Henry J Muto

    Kentucky as a 3 seed was laughable. The committee almost gave them a 1 seed today. Probably should stick with ranking the teams as they stand now and not try and predict 6 weeks down the road you would come out looking better though your 47th ranked out of 60 newbies on the site so not sure that will help you out either. I scored more points than anyone 2 out of the last 4 years I don’t have a blog or get paid like Jerry Palm (who I have beat 13 out of the 15 years ) but I post my seed list on multiple sites before the selection Show each year.

    PS Nebraska lost their 2nd best player probably drop them from the bracket now.

    Reply
    1. gotstremph Post author

      Thank you for the comment. While my specialty and expertise lie in analyzing the teams once they’re in the tournament, I’ve still got a bit of room to grow as a bracketologist.

      Reply
  3. Henry J Muto

    Kentucky as a 3 seed was laughable. They have been a 2 seed for a while now and the committee almost had them as a 1 seed toady (5th overall).

    Reply
    1. gotstremph Post author

      That’s a great question, Matthew. Thank you for asking. After a 5-game losing streak, we should definitely be questioning Nebraska’s tournament-worthiness. My quick answer: I think Nebraska is a better team than their record shows, and I project them to finish 9-11 (or better) in the Big Ten, one of the strongest conferences this year. Other metrics are in line with my assessment of Nebraska (NET: 33, BPI: 22, POM: 27, SAG: 21).

      Not so quick answer: My bracket is a prediction of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, not if the tournament started today. I mostly use my own team ratings to project future performance. My numbers indicate Nebraska is good enough to warrant a 6-9 seed, so even according to my own numbers, a 6-seed is probably too optimistic. So I’ll agree with you on that point. My methodology also keeps me from overreacting to a loss or even a recent string of losses. Most bracketologists overreact to “what happened yesterday.” Only 5 days ago, Nebraska was in 91 out of 99 brackets. Now they’re in 62 of 102. All that said, all models are wrong and sometimes very wrong. We have a month of basketball left and Nebraska can get back on track tonight against Maryland (they’re currently a 2.5 point favorite). Let’s see how it goes…

      Reply
  4. David

    Wondering why Florida State is a 5 seed (18th overall) and Miami is an 11 seed (43rd overall).

    Reply
    1. gotstremph Post author

      Great question, David. I use my statistical models to project how a team will perform between now and Selection Sunday. As we now are only a week and a half out, there is less uncertainty and I can focus more on what the committee will do. Your timing is perfect – I am shifting several projections tonight, and FSU will be a team with more movement than the rest (along with Miami, Butler, and Arkansas).

      Reply
      1. BleedinGold

        Your statistical models are flawed.

        During the Early Release by the committee on Feb 9th, Purdue was ranked as the Top 3 seed. Since then their only loss was on the road @Maryland. Which won’t hurt them considering everyone around them has since lost as many or more games than them….

        Does your model have them losing the last two (@Minn @NW), and then dropping the first game of the BTT? That’s the only way they even sniff a 5 seed.

      2. gotstremph Post author

        I agree. My model is flawed. I’d go so far as to totally agree with the great statistician George Box, who famously noted that all models are wrong (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong). I’m not sure why the BracketMatrix was showing Purdue as a 5-seed. I’ve had them as a 4 and close to a 3 for over a week. I definitely don’t see Purdue falling below the 4 line, and their performance over the next two weeks will show whether they should be bumped up to a 3-seed. Thanks for the comment.

    1. gotstremph

      Thanks for the question. I agree Washington has some good wins. ASU has now lost more conference games than they’ve won, so that one’s losing some luster. There are a lot of teams this year with multiple good wins. Looking past the good wins, they’ve had close games against much weaker opponents and too many of their losses were not close. Another thing hurting the Huskies is how the Pac-12 isn’t as strong this year as it often is. If they finish the season strong, they’ll definitely make the tournament. But their performance against some of the middle-range teams isn’t giving me a high level of confidence that they’ll finish strong. I’m excited to see how it plays out!

      Reply
  5. Brian

    How can providence not possibly be in at this point?

    28 rpi with 5 quad 1 wins..7-4 record in the big east

    Reply
    1. gotstremph

      Good question, Brian. Thank you for your comment! 103 out of 108 brackets in the matrix have them in. If today was Selection Sunday, I’d have them in too, but we still have a month of basketball left. Providence has a tough final stretch, where they will most likely go 3-4, to finish the season 19-12 (10-8). They have some good wins, but so do lots of other teams. I consider scoring margin, and Providence had some close wins against weaker opponents (Belmont-1 pt, Rider-4 pts, Brown-5 pts, Stony Brook-2 pts). They’re sitting at a 10-seed in the matrix right now, and losing 4 of their last 7 and an early exit from the conference tournament would very well knock them out.

      Reply
      1. Brian

        Wow so you are banking on them losing 5 out of 8, even though they are 7-4 with the third toughest sos so far in the BE.
        Pretty ridiculous.. only 1 team from the big east has not gotten in with 10 wins in the last 5+ years… andy you think pc would be one even though they would finish the year with 5+ quad 1 wins, an rpi of around 40 and sos under 20.

        Okay so this isn’t worth my time.

      2. gotstremph

        Probably more like 5 out of 9 (they’ll win in the first round of the Big East tournament). They might still make it. You’re right about the 10-win trend. Last year was the perfect example. 4 teams were 10-8 in conference and all made it in. 11-seed Providence lost their play-in game. 6-Creighton, 9-Seton Hall, and 10-Marquette all lost in the first round. Maybe the committee will think twice this time?
        Seriously, though, it’s really too soon to say Providence is a lock. Please check back in 4 weeks.

  6. TJ

    It is time to adjust your team rankings when you are consistently sliding Duke up to the top line. They lost to Virginia — you keep them on the top line. They lose to St. Johns — you keep them on the top line.

    Any ranking system that still projects them to be seeded ahead of Virginia is just wrong.

    Reply
    1. gotstremph

      Thanks for the comment, TJ. I agree that I need to adjust. In fact, I was in the middle of updating when you commented. I disagree, however, that projecting Duke ahead of Virginia is absolutely wrong. There’s still a whole month of the season left before Selection Sunday. I’ll agree with “probably wrong” but not “just wrong.”

      Reply
  7. GPJ73

    Curious why you would have Old Dominion – with its zero wins over the top 100 RPI or KenPom – over teams like Alabama and Missouri … or, frankly, any of the other teams in your first 8 out. Their resume is *terrible*.

    Reply
    1. gotstremph

      That’s a really good question. Thank you for bringing that up. This far away from Selection Sunday, my projections are still largely (though not entirely) based on my model’s team ratings, and Old Dominion scores well in a lot of the key team stats that go into that calculation. As we head down the stretch, I will shift more to a prediction of how the committee will make their selections. Old Dominion’s team rating is close behind MTSU’s rating for tops in C-USA, so I wouldn’t be surprised if ODU wound up winning the C-USA Tournament and got the automatic bid.

      Reply
    1. gotstremph

      Great question, Ed. If Selection Sunday was yesterday, Virginia would’ve been given a 1-seed, without a doubt. This projection is my best guess on how the bracket will look on March 11th. Duke and Virginia are really close, which last week proved. My model helps look at the whole season and not put too much weight on any single game. Given the season performance of all teams to this point, Duke scores a little bit better than Virginia. I’m really excited to watch the ACC conference race down the stretch.
      Thanks for the question. Please check back later to see how my projections look as we get closer to Selection Sunday.

      Reply
  8. You can't Forecast

    I think you need a new computer. Seton hall is a lock and you have them as the. Next four out. LMAO…..every other site has them easily in. There are other laughable seedings in your bracket as well. Too many to mention. LOL

    Reply
    1. gotstremph

      You can’t, thank for your comment! You’re totally right about my projection for Seton Hall. I based my projections (maybe too much) on my computer ratings for all of the teams. I think my model may need some tweaking to account more for strength of schedule. Nonetheless, playing Villanova close and winning by 9 @ Hawaii isn’t impressing me much. I think I might be the one laughing when Seton Hall makes their early exit from the tournament. Joking aside, I will be adjusting my bracket projection soon to how I think the committee will make their decisions. Stay tuned! And thanks, again, for the comment!

      Reply
      1. You can't Forecast

        Joking aside, both providence and Michigan state are getting in as well. also Houston is not making the tournament. I believe you have them as a 9 seed. Just a few more observations

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