Your chances of winning your bracket pool improve dramatically with the more correct Final Four picks you have. Historically, 61% of all Final Four teams have been a 1- or 2-seed. Here’s a look at the combined probability of each region having a 1- or 2-seed champ.
Continue readingWin your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.
Whether Illinois will win the Midwest Region is basically a coin flip. This is the only region where a double-digit seed is one of the more likely teams to win it. There is an 82% chance the winner will be one of five teams…
Continue readingWin your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.
The South Region is the most competitive this year. By that, I mean there is only a 52% chance one of the top 2 seeds will win the region – the lowest chance of any region. There is a 95% chance the winner will be one of seven teams…
Continue readingTo win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. You’ll be glad you saw this post!
I enhanced my super amazing tournament computer model, and the simulation results are in.
Continue readingUse these tables to compare team computer ratings for the teams that are in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. These ratings have predictive value and can be used to make relative team strength comparisons. Check out computer rankings for these teams here.
Continue readingWhile I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!
Let’s gooooooo!!!!!!
This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16.
Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. Most interesting observation: three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…
Continue readingDark Horse Final Four Team: a 5+ seeded team that reaches the Final Four
As 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, the following teams have the best chances among the “longshots.”