Category Archives: Bracketology

Bracket Projection 12-13-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • There are quite a few differences right now, but it’s still early in the season.  It’ll be a lot of fun to watch how it plays out.
1 Michigan St. 1 Villanova
16 Jacksonville St. 16 Penn
8 Boise St. 8 SMU
9 Florida 9 Missouri
5 Florida St. 5 Wichita St.
12 Minnesota/Rhode Island 12 Butler
4 Tennessee 4 Gonzaga
13 Wagner 13 Towson
6 Nevada 6 UNLV
11 Ohio St. 11 Clemson
3 Seton Hall 3 TCU
14 Texas-Arlington 14 FGCU
7 Louisville 7 UNI
10 Notre Dame 10 Creighton
2 Purdue 2 Texas Tech
15 Stephen F. Austin 15 Idaho
1 Arizona St. 1 West Virginia
16 N.C. A&T/Bucknell 16 Rider/Central Mich.
8 Cincinnati 8 Oklahoma
9 Auburn 9 Oregon
5 St. John’s (NY) 5 Virginia Tech
12 St. Bonaventure 12 Western Ky.
4 Arkansas 4 Texas A&M
13 Grand Canyon 13 East Tenn. St.
6 Virginia 6 Miami (FL)
11 Michigan/Penn St. 11 South Dakota
3 North Carolina 3 Kansas
14 Liberty 14 Valparaiso
7 Arizona 7 Kentucky
10 Oklahoma St. 10 Maryland
2 Duke 2 Xavier
15 Vermont 15 UC Santa Barbara

Bracket Projection 12-10-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • There are quite a few differences right now, but it’s still early in the season.  It’ll be a lot of fun to watch how it plays out.
1 Michigan St. 1 Villanova
16 Central Mich. 16 UC Davis
8 Oklahoma 8 Miami (FL)
9 Auburn 9 Notre Dame
5 Texas A&M 5 St. John’s (NY)
12 South Dakota 12 Butler
4 Tennessee 4 Gonzaga
13 St. Bonaventure 13 Murray St.
6 Virginia Tech 6 Nevada
11 Mississippi St. 11 Ohio St.
3 TCU 3 North Carolina
14 Grand Canyon 14 Towson
7 Virginia 7 UNLV
10 Minnesota 10 Maryland
2 Duke 2 Texas Tech
15 Valparaiso 15 FGCU
1 Arizona St. 1 West Virginia
16 Bucknell/Rider 16 Albany (NY)/Penn
8 Missouri 8 Arizona
9 Florida 9 Louisville
5 UNI 5 Wichita St.
12 Western Ky. 12 Rhode Island
4 Florida St. 4 Arkansas
13 Wagner 13 UNC Greensboro
6 SMU 6 Oregon
11 Texas/Penn St. 11 Oklahoma St./Cincinnati
3 Seton Hall 3 Kansas
14 Stephen F. Austin 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Boise St. 7 Kentucky
10 Clemson 10 Creighton
2 Purdue 2 Xavier
15 Liberty 15 Idaho

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 12-3-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Southern California 25 113
Baylor 23 109
Wichita St. 6 29
Cincinnati 17 37
Miami (FL) 10 28
Florida 5 20
North Carolina 11 25
Notre Dame 9 22
Nevada 22 30
Duke 1 8
Virginia 15 21
Kentucky 8 13

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Florida St. 41 23
Tennessee 24 7
West Virginia 18 3
Texas Tech 26 12
Arizona St. 16 5
TCU 20 9
Seton Hall 19 11
Purdue 21 15
Minnesota 14 10

Bracket Projection 12-4-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • There are quite a few differences right now, but it’s still early in the season.  It’ll be a lot of fun to watch how it plays out.
1 Kansas 1 Villanova
16 Liberty 16 Buffalo
8 Oklahoma St. 8 Louisville
9 San Diego St. 9 Missouri
5 UNLV 5 SMU
12 Texas 12 Oklahoma/Arizona
4 Kentucky 4 Gonzaga
13 Towson 13 South Dakota
6 Notre Dame 6 Florida St.
11 Murray St. 11 Oregon
3 TCU 3 Minnesota
14 Mercer 14 Vermont
7 Miami (FL) 7 Wichita St.
10 Temple 10 Arkansas
2 Arizona St. 2 Texas A&M
15 Stephen F. Austin 15 FGCU
1 Michigan St. 1 West Virginia
16 N.C. A&T/Prairie View 16 Rider/Bucknell
8 Boise St. 8 St. John’s (NY)
9 Auburn 9 Cincinnati
5 Virginia 5 Florida
12 Maryland 12 Virginia Tech/Maryland
4 Xavier 4 Purdue
13 Texas-Arlington 13 Western Ky.
6 North Carolina 6 UNI
11 Providence 11 Clemson
3 Texas Tech 3 Seton Hall
14 UC Davis 14 Penn
7 Rhode Island 7 Nevada
10 Penn St. 10 Valparaiso
2 Duke 2 Tennessee
15 Wagner 15 Idaho

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 3-9-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 25 58
Kansas 1 18
Arizona 7 20
Baylor 9 21
Oregon 5 12
Butler 18 25
UCLA 3 7

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 20 3
Creighton 39 29
West Virginia 11 2
Florida 17 10
Virginia 21 14
Cincinnati 15 9
St. Mary’s (CA) 19 13
Wisconsin 24 19
Michigan 29 24

Bracket Projection 2-27-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  They’ve slipped from a 5- to a 6-seed after losing to Iowa State.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are.
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.  Kansas beat Texas in Austin by 10 over the weekend.  Kent State only beat Texas by 5, so there’s that I guess.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Xavier is slowly slipping and is now a consensus 8-seed, but their slide in my ratings puts them now in the First Four Out of the tournament.
  • Maryland finally dropped to a consensus 7-seed.  They lost at home by 14 to Iowa (whose record is 16-13) – yet another loss that supports my position for Maryland not making the tournament.  They’ve now lost 5 of their last 7 games, which also supports my assertion of Maryland being one of the most overrated teams.
  • BYU and Michigan State have been on the bubble for a while and are now in.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Creighton 8 Middle Tenn.
9 Rhode Island 9 Michigan
5 Purdue 5 Duke
12 BYU/Louisiana Tech 12 Michigan St./TCU
4 Florida St. 4 St. Mary’s (CA)
13 Princeton 13 Vermont
6 Wisconsin 6 Oklahoma St.
11 East Tenn. St. 11 Marquette
3 Florida 3 Villanova
14 New Mexico St. 14 Valparaiso
7 Notre Dame 7 Houston
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 Wichita St. 2 North Carolina
15 Ohio 15 Winthrop
1 Louisville 1 Kentucky
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 South Carolina 8 Texas Tech
9 VCU 9 Indiana
5 Butler 5 Arizona
12 Nevada 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Kansas 4 SMU
13 Bucknell 13 Monmouth
6 Iowa St. 6 Baylor
11 Northwestern 11 Utah
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Texas-Arlington 14 Belmont
7 Minnesota 7 Dayton
10 Wake Forest 10 Arkansas
2 Virginia 2 UCLA
15 FGCU 15 IPFW

 

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 2-23-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 24 51
Arizona 4 21
Northwestern 27 42
Kansas 3 14
Baylor 9 20
Villanova 2 11
VCU 26 34
Duke 10 17

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 25 6
West Virginia 12 2
Kentucky 11 4
Virginia 18 12
Florida St. 19 13
North Carolina 8 3
Florida 13 8
Cincinnati 15 10

 

Bubble Teams 2-23-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Tennessee and TCU fell out.  Syracuse and Louisiana Tech (winner of 6 straight) moved in.  Xavier continues to lose ground and is now the last team in.  Maryland is still overrated and is still out.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Miami (FL)
  • California
  • Marquette
  • East Tenn. State
  • Arkansas
  • Northwestern
  • Kansas State
  • Wake Forest

Last Four In

  • Utah
  • Louisiana Tech
  • Syracuse
  • Xavier

First Four Out

  • TCU
  • Maryland
  • Illinois State
  • BYU

Next Four Out

  • Tennessee
  • Michigan State
  • USC
  • Georgia

 

Bracket Projection 2-23-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  I’ve projected them as a 4- or 5-seed for weeks.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Xavier is a consensus 7-seed, but their slide in my ratings puts them as the last team in at a 12-seed
  • Maryland is still a consensus 6-seed.  Their loss last night to Minnesota at home supports my position for Maryland in the First Four Out.  They’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games, which also supports my assertion of Maryland being one of the most overrated teams.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Minnesota 8 Middle Tenn.
9 South Carolina 9 VCU
5 Duke 5 SMU
12 Utah/Louisiana Tech 12 Syracuse/Xavier
4 Florida St. 4 Kansas
13 Nevada 13 Vermont
6 Arizona 6 Butler
11 Arkansas 11 Northwestern
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Belmont 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Creighton 7 Iowa St.
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 UCLA 2 Wichita St.
15 New Mexico St. 15 Winthrop
1 Kentucky 1 North Carolina
16 Wagner/Texas Southern 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 Michigan 8 Texas Tech
9 Indiana 9 Rhode Island
5 Baylor 5 Wisconsin
12 Monmouth 12 UNC Wilmington
4 St. Mary’s (CA) 4 Purdue
13 Valparaiso 13 Princeton
6 Oklahoma St. 6 Notre Dame
11 Wake Forest 11 Kansas St.
3 Virginia 3 Villanova
14 Ohio 14 Bucknell
7 Houston 7 Dayton
10 East Tenn. St. 10 Marquette
2 Florida 2 Louisville
15 IPFW 15 FGCU

Bubble Teams 2-20-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Marquette and Tennessee are in.  Michigan is still off the bubble (on the safe side).  Rhode Island joined them, while Middle Tennessee moved into “safe” territory.  Xavier continues to lose ground and are now in the Last Four In.  Utah also lost ground.  Maryland and Syracuse dropped out.  Louisiana Tech has won 6 in a row and are now sitting right below the cut-off line.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • VCU
  • Northwestern
  • Kansas State
  • Miami (FL)
  • Wake Forest
  • California
  • Arkansas
  • Marquette

Last Four In

  • Tennessee
  • Xavier
  • Utah
  • TCU

First Four Out

  • Louisiana Tech
  • Syracuse
  • Maryland
  • Illinois State

Next Four Out

  • Michigan State
  • Georgetown
  • BYU
  • Clemson