Category Archives: Bracketology

Bracket Projection 2-20-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy difference with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  I’ve projected them as a 4- or 5-seed for weeks.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Most bracketologists are just now taking Indiana out of their projection.  Indiana’s been out for a long time for me
  • Syracuse and Maryland are out.  Xavier has slid considerably and is barely in, now.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 UC Irvine 16 Eastern Wash.
8 Texas Tech 8 Middle Tenn.
9 Indiana 9 Michigan
5 SMU 5 St. Mary’s (CA)
12 East Tenn. St. 12 Utah/TCU
4 Purdue 4 Duke
13 Monmouth 13 Vermont
6 Arizona 6 Butler
11 California 11 Arkansas
3 Oregon 3 Villanova
14 New Mexico St. 14 Belmont
7 Iowa St. 7 Creighton
10 Northwestern 10 Kansas St.
2 North Carolina 2 UCLA
15 Texas-Arlington 15 Winthrop
1 Louisville 1 Kentucky
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 South Carolina 8 Minnesota
9 VCU 9 Rhode Island
5 Baylor 5 Wisconsin
12 Nevada 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Kansas 4 Florida St.
13 Valparaiso 13 Princeton
6 Oklahoma St. 6 Notre Dame
11 Tennessee/Xavier 11 Marquette
3 Cincinnati 3 Florida
14 Bucknell 14 Ohio
7 Dayton 7 Houston
10 Wake Forest 10 Miami (FL)
2 Virginia 2 Wichita St.
15 FGCU 15 IPFW

 

Bubble Teams 2-16-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Michigan is still off the bubble (on the safe side).  Rhode Island is now on the bubble, while Middle Tennessee moved into “safe” territory.  Xavier continues to lose ground.  Illinois State and Tennessee were replaced by Maryland and Arkansas in the Last Four In.  Illinois State fell to right below the cut-line.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Northwestern
  • Rhode Island
  • Utah
  • California
  • Kansas State
  • Xavier
  • Wake Forest
  • Miami (FL)

Last Four In

  • TCU
  • Maryland
  • Syracuse
  • Arkansas

First Four Out

  • Illinois State
  • Tennessee
  • USC
  • Marquette

Next Four Out

  • Georgetown
  • BYU
  • Michigan State
  • Clemson

 

Bracket Projection 2-16-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy difference with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Kansas and Baylor are both consensus 1-seeds.  Ratings from TheRankerPit.com indicate Kansas and Baylor may be a bit overrated.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Most bracketologists are just now taking Indiana out of their projection.  Indiana’s been out for a long time for me
  • Maryland and Arkansas have moved in, while Illinois State and Tennessee have moved out.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 UC Irvine 16 N.C. Central
8 South Carolina 8 Minnesota
9 Indiana 9 Middle Tenn.
5 Wisconsin 5 Baylor
12 Syracuse/Arkansas 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Cincinnati 4 Purdue
13 Nevada 13 Monmouth
6 Arizona 6 Notre Dame
11 Xavier 11 Wake Forest
3 UCLA 3 Villanova
14 Princeton 14 Akron
7 Creighton 7 Iowa St.
10 Rhode Island 10 Utah
2 Virginia 2 North Carolina
15 Bucknell 15 UNC Asheville
1 Louisville 1 Kentucky
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 Sam Houston St./Eastern Wash.
8 Michigan 8 Texas Tech
9 Northwestern 9 VCU
5 St. Mary’s (CA) 5 SMU
12 Vermont 12 East Tenn. St.
4 Kansas 4 Duke
13 Belmont 13 Valparaiso
6 Butler 6 Oklahoma St.
11 TCU/Maryland 11 Miami (FL)
3 Florida St. 3 Oregon
14 New Mexico St. 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Dayton 7 Houston
10 Kansas St. 10 California
2 Wichita St. 2 Florida
15 FGCU 15 IPFW

Bubble Teams 2-15-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Northwestern is still off the bubble (on the safe side).  Michigan joined them.  Xavier’s on the bubble.  Miami gained ground, while Tennessee lost some.  Illinois State is still right above the cut-line.  Maryland is back into the First Four Out.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Xavier
  • Middle Tennessee
  • VCU
  • Kansas State
  • Utah
  • California
  • Wake Forest
  • Miami (FL)

Last Four In

  • TCU
  • Syracuse
  • Tennessee
  • Illinois State

First Four Out

  • Georgetown
  • Maryland
  • Marquette
  • Arkansas
  • Michigan State

Next Four Out

  • Michigan State
  • USC
  • BYU
  • Clemson

 

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 2-13-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 23 55
Southern California 29 54
Kansas 3 19
Arizona 5 21
Baylor 4 17
Villanova 2 9
Oregon 7 13

 UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 26 8
Oklahoma St. 34 23
Kentucky 13 4
Virginia 14 5
Florida 15 7
West Virginia 9 2
Cincinnati 18 11

Bubble Teams 2-13-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

Northwestern is off the bubble.  Illinois State is in.  Ohio State fell out of of the conversation.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Middle Tennessee
  • Michigan
  • Kansas State
  • Wake Forest
  • VCU
  • Utah
  • California
  • Tennessee

Last Four In

  • Miami (FL)
  • TCU
  • Syracuse
  • Illinois State

First Four Out

  • Georgetown
  • Arkansas
  • Marquette
  • Michigan State

Next Four Out

  • BYU
  • USC
  • Maryland
  • Clemson

 

Bracket Projection 2-13-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy difference with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Kansas and Baylor are both consensus 1-seeds.  Ratings from TheRankerPit.com indicate Kansas and Baylor may be a bit overrated.
  • Meanwhile, I have West Virginia as a 1-seed.  Just so happens West Virginia plays at Kansas tonight – how convenient.  West Virginia won the first matchup 85-69 on Jan. 24.
  • I have Wichita State moving up to a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Most bracketologists are just now taking Indiana out of their projection.  Indiana’s been out for a long time for me
  • Prediction:  Maryland will also eventually fall out of everyone else’s bracket.  They’re not nearly as good as “everyone” thinks.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 UC Irvine 16 Eastern Wash.
8 Dayton 8 Rhode Island
9 Indiana 9 Xavier
5 Baylor 5 Wisconsin
12 Syracuse/Illinois St. 12 East Tenn. St.
4 Oregon 4 Purdue
13 Vermont 13 Monmouth
6 Arizona 6 Notre Dame
11 Utah 11 California
3 Villanova 3 UCLA
14 Belmont 14 New Mexico St.
7 Creighton 7 Houston
10 Michigan 10 Kansas St.
2 Virginia 2 North Carolina
15 Bucknell 15 IPFW
1 Kentucky 1 Louisville
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 Sam Houston St./N.C. Central
8 Minnesota 8 Texas Tech
9 Middle Tenn. 9 Northwestern
5 St. Mary’s (CA) 5 Kansas
12 Nevada 12 UNC Wilmington
4 SMU 4 Duke
13 Princeton 13 Valparaiso
6 Butler 6 Oklahoma St.
11 Miami (FL)/TCU 11 Tennessee
3 Florida St. 3 Cincinnati
14 Akron 14 Texas-Arlington
7 South Carolina 7 Iowa St.
10 VCU 10 Wake Forest
2 Wichita St. 2 Florida
15 FGCU 15 Winthrop

Bubble Teams 2-10-17

These teams are theIn-But-On-The-Bubble First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

Losing to Pepperdine, BYU is out of contention. Louisiana Tech is also out.  Syracuse, Illinois State, and USC move up a bit.  Maryland is back in the mix.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Michigan
  • Middle Tennessee
  • TCU
  • Northwestern
  • VCU
  • California
  • Tennessee
  • Syracuse

Last Four In

  • Utah
  • Miami (FL)
  • Marquette
  • Wake Forest

First Four Out

  • Illinois State
  • Arkansas
  • USC
  • Maryland

Next Four Out

  • Michigan State
  • Georgetown
  • Ohio State
  • Clemson

 

Bracket Projection 2-10-17

 

1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 UC Irvine 16 N.C. Central
8 Dayton 8 Minnesota
9 Rhode Island 9 Xavier
5 Kansas 5 SMU
12 Marquette/Wake Forest 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Oregon 4 Duke
13 Belmont 13 Vermont
6 Arizona 6 Oklahoma St.
11 California 11 Tennessee
3 UCLA 3 Cincinnati
14 Princeton 14 New Mexico St.
7 South Carolina 7 Houston
10 Middle Tenn. 10 TCU
2 Kentucky 2 Florida
15 Bucknell 15 Winthrop
1 Virginia 1 Louisville
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 Sam Houston St./Eastern Wash.
8 Texas Tech 8 Indiana
9 Michigan 9 Kansas St.
5 St. Mary’s (CA) 5 Baylor
12 Nevada 12 East Tenn. St.
4 Wisconsin 4 Purdue
13 Valparaiso 13 Monmouth
6 Notre Dame 6 Butler
11 Utah/Miami (FL) 11 Syracuse
3 Wichita St. 3 Villanova
14 Texas-Arlington 14 Akron
7 Iowa St. 7 Creighton
10 VCU 10 Northwestern
2 Florida St. 2 North Carolina
15 FGCU 15 IPFW

Bubble Teams 2-9-17

These teams are theIn-But-On-The-Bubble First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

Louisiana Tech is up, USC is down, Maryland is out.  “Maryland???” you say?  Stay tuned!  Maryland is still very overrated.  They might make the field, but they have work to do before they belong.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • TCU
  • Michigan
  • Middle Tennessee
  • Tennessee
  • Northwestern
  • VCU
  • California
  • Utah

Last Four In

  • Syracuse
  • Wake Forest
  • Miami (FL)
  • Marquette

First Four Out

  • BYU
  • Arkansas
  • Illinois State
  • Louisiana Tech

Next Four Out

  • USC
  • Michigan State
  • Clemson
  • Georgetown