Tag Archives: over rated teams

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 12-23-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Baylor 18 77
Miami (FL) 6 38
Wichita St. 11 28
Texas A&M 8 22
Cincinnati 20 33
Kentucky 7 19
North Carolina 5 13
Notre Dame 27 34
Gonzaga 12 18

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Seton Hall 23 8
Arkansas 26 11
Texas Tech 21 7
Purdue 16 5
Florida St. 24 14
Creighton 25 17
West Virginia 10 4
Kansas 14 9
Oklahoma 17 12

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 12-21-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Baylor 18 68
Miami (FL) 6 35
Notre Dame 27 53
Clemson 28 43
Kentucky 7 19
Wichita St. 11 23
Cincinnati 20 31
Texas A&M 8 18
North Carolina 5 13
Virginia 13 20
Oklahoma 17 21
Arizona St. 3 6
Gonzaga 12 15

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Texas Tech 21 5
Arkansas 26 11
Seton Hall 23 9
Creighton 25 14
Purdue 16 7
West Virginia 10 2
Kansas 14 8
Tennessee 22 16
TCU 15 12

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 12-14-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Baylor 21 75
Texas 28 61
Notre Dame 18 38
Kentucky 8 27
Miami (FL) 6 23
Wichita St. 3 18
Creighton 26 39
Florida 22 33
Virginia 16 24
Cincinnati 25 32
Texas A&M 9 15
North Carolina 7 12
Arizona 23 28
Duke 4 8

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Texas Tech 24 6
Purdue 17 5
West Virginia 11 3
Tennessee 20 13
Seton Hall 15 9
TCU 14 10
Louisville 29 25
Xavier 10 7

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 12-11-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Baylor 21 74
Miami (FL) 6 31
Cincinnati 25 48
Texas 28 49
Kentucky 8 27
Notre Dame 18 36
Florida 22 39
Wichita St. 3 19
Creighton 26 42
Arizona 23 33
Virginia 16 25
Texas A&M 9 17

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Texas Tech 24 6
Arkansas 30 15
Purdue 17 8
West Virginia 11 3
Tennessee 20 13
TCU 14 9

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 12-3-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Southern California 25 113
Baylor 23 109
Wichita St. 6 29
Cincinnati 17 37
Miami (FL) 10 28
Florida 5 20
North Carolina 11 25
Notre Dame 9 22
Nevada 22 30
Duke 1 8
Virginia 15 21
Kentucky 8 13

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TheRankerPit.com Rank
Florida St. 41 23
Tennessee 24 7
West Virginia 18 3
Texas Tech 26 12
Arizona St. 16 5
TCU 20 9
Seton Hall 19 11
Purdue 21 15
Minnesota 14 10

2017 Most Over-seeded Teams

Undeserving 1-seeds have consistently under-performed, and this year North Carolina and Kansas fit the bill.

I am using team ratings from my computer model to determine if a team is over-seeded in the tournament.  1-seeds should be one of the top four teams, 2-seeds should be teams 5-8, and so on.  I’d like to mention that my model’s not too shabby, either.  It performed better than ESPN’s model at picking against the spread.

Historically (going back to 2013), only the top seeds (1 through 6) have demonstrated a clear trend of under-performing when my model says they were over-seeded

Overrated 2-seeds

  • My model says Duke and Arizona both should’ve been 4-seeds
  • 26 of the last 60 2-seeds were over-rated by that much or more.
    • None won the championship
    • Two (including Duke in 2012) lost in the first round
    • Ten lost in the Second Round
    • Only 5 reached the Final Four
  • Duke and Arizona do, however, have the DNA of a championship team

Overrated 3-seeds

  • 3-seeds that should be be 6-seeds or worse have consistently under-performed
  • This year, only Baylor is that overrated
  • There is one outlier – in 2011, Connecticut should’ve been a 6-seed, but they won it all
  • There have been 16 other 3-seeds that overrated
    • None reached the Final Four
    • Two lost in the First Round
    • Seven lost in the Second Round

Overrated 4-seeds

  • Purdue should’ve been a 5 and Butler a 6
  • 27 of the last 60 4-seeds were over-seeded
    • None reached the Championship game
    • Only 2 reached the Elite 8 and one reached the Final Four
    • 8 lost in the First Round
    • 9 lost in the Second Round

Overrated 5-seeds

  • Minnesota should’ve been an 8-seed
  • 24 of the last 60 5-seed have been  as grossly over-seeded as Minnesota or more
    • 13 (over half!) of them lost in the First Round
    • In 2010, Butler surprised everyone by reaching the Championship game as a 5-seed
    • Besides Butler, none of the other over-seeded 5’s in this group reached even the Elite 8

Overrated 6-seeds

  • Maryland shouldn’t have even made it into the tournament
  • 22 of the last 60 6-seeds were significantly over-seeded
    • 13 (59%) of them lost in the First Round
    • None of the reached the Final Four
    • 5 of them actually won multiple games, so all is not lost for Maryland.  Forget about a Final Four run, though.

Over-seeded 1-Seeds Underperform

By undeserving, I’m talking about 1-seeds that my computer model says are not one of the top four teams in the tournament.

This year, my model says North Carolina should’ve been a 2-seed and Kansas should’ve been a 5-seed.

Going back to 2003, my model says 23 out of the 60 1-seeds were over-seeded.

The average number of wins for deserving 1-seeds was 3.8 (4 wins get you to the Final 4), while the average number of wins for undeserving 1-seeds was 2.3.  That’s a big difference!

5 of the 23 undeserving 1-seeds lost in the Second Round, and none of them reached the championship game.

That’s a decent number of data points to indicate my model’s on to something here.

2017 Advice

Definitely don’t pick Kansas to win it all.  Fight the urge!  Remember, the Quarterfinal Rule already declared them ineligible.

The data shows an overseeded 1-seed hasn’t won the championship since 2003, so think twice about picking UNC.

I’m predicting Iowa State to knock Kansas out in the Second Round and UNC to lose in the Elite 8 to… I’m not sure, take your pick between Kentucky, UCLA, and Wichita State.

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 3-9-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 25 58
Kansas 1 18
Arizona 7 20
Baylor 9 21
Oregon 5 12
Butler 18 25
UCLA 3 7

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 20 3
Creighton 39 29
West Virginia 11 2
Florida 17 10
Virginia 21 14
Cincinnati 15 9
St. Mary’s (CA) 19 13
Wisconsin 24 19
Michigan 29 24

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 2-23-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 24 51
Arizona 4 21
Northwestern 27 42
Kansas 3 14
Baylor 9 20
Villanova 2 11
VCU 26 34
Duke 10 17

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 25 6
West Virginia 12 2
Kentucky 11 4
Virginia 18 12
Florida St. 19 13
North Carolina 8 3
Florida 13 8
Cincinnati 15 10

 

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 2-13-17

Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 23 55
Southern California 29 54
Kansas 3 19
Arizona 5 21
Baylor 4 17
Villanova 2 9
Oregon 7 13

 UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 26 8
Oklahoma St. 34 23
Kentucky 13 4
Virginia 14 5
Florida 15 7
West Virginia 9 2
Cincinnati 18 11