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Analysis

2026 NCAA Tournament Champ Contenders - Model Results

Bracket Research·March 17, 2026·1 min read

To win your bracket pool, you've got to pick the right Champ. Here is a collection of computer model results from me (BracketResearch), KenPom, BartTorvik, ESPN, and EvanMiya.

According to the models, we're very top-heavy this year. It's even more likely than usual that a 1-seed will win this one.

Observations

  • 69% chance this year's champ is a 1-seed, according to Avg prob
  • Duke > Michicgan > Arizona, according to BR, POM, TOR, and ESPN
  • EM not only favors Michigan, but Michigan is a heavy favorite (26.5%)
  • 2-Connecticut - not only the weakest 2-seed, but consensus less likely champ than 3-Illinois
  • ESPN favors 2-Houston over 1-Florida (9.4% vs 7.7%)
All analysis