March Madness, decoded

Win your bracket with data, not gut feelings.

A transparent computer model and sharp analysis for every NCAA Tournament team — Cinderellas, busters, and the picks nobody else sees coming.

No spreadsheets to wrangle. Just the edges that move the needle.

Title Odds · Composite ModelLive
1Houston18%
1Duke15%
2Alabama11%
1Auburn9%
3Iowa State7%
99.9%
Brackets busted by Sunday
10 of 11
Final Fours with a 5+ seed
67%
Of 1–3 seeds reach Sweet 16
1 in 4
Cinderellas the model flags early
The analysis

Every angle of your bracket, broken down.

Not hot takes — repeatable, data-backed edges built from decades of tournament history and a model that updates as the bracket unfolds.

Mar 17, 2026

2026 Final Four Contenders - Model Results

To win your bracket pool, you’ve got to pick the right Champ. There will likely be others in your pool that picked the same champ. Your Final Four picks can be the…

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Mar 17, 2026

2026 NCAA Tournament Champ Contenders - Model Results

To win your bracket pool, you've got to pick the right Champ. Here is a collection of computer model results from me (BracketResearch), KenPom , BartTorvik , ESPN , and EvanMiya .…

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Mar 17, 2026

2026 First Round Upsets - Model Results

Picking First Round Upsets can either wreck your bracket from the get-go or give you a head start on your way to bracket pool glory. Historically, March Madness averages 6-7 First Round…

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Dec 22, 2025

BracketNinja’s Weekly Bracket Intel – 12/22/25

Curated college basketball links with March Madness implications I’ve scoured the web so you don’t have to. Below are some interesting college basketball reads from around the internet — always curated with…

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Dec 18, 2025

BracketNinja’s Weekly Bracket Intel - 12/18/25

Curated college basketball links with March Madness implications I’ve scoured the web so you don’t have to. Below are some interesting college basketball reads from around the internet — always curated with…

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Mar 19, 2024

2024 East Region Model Results

The 2024 NCAA Tournament East Region favorite is Connecticut. Surprise, surprise! All four models are in the same ballpark with Connecticut, too. The Models BR - My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM…

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Interactive · 2026 preview

Cinderella Watch

Sort and filter the double-digit seeds by their odds to reach each round. This is the kind of living tool that replaces a static blog post — updated as the bracket sets.

Click any column to re-sort · live demo data
TeamConfCinderella %Sweet 16 %Elite 8 %
10New MexicoMtn West44%39%15%
11UC IrvineBig West41%35%12%
12DrakeMVC38%31%9%
13McNeeseSouthland34%22%6%
12LibertyCUSA31%24%7%
13YaleIvy29%18%4%
13High PointBig South27%16%5%
14AkronMAC22%11%3%
The model

One transparent composite. Every team, every round.

We blend the strongest public bracket models into a single composite probability for each team — then show our work. No black boxes, no recency bias, no picking chalk for the sake of it.

68
Teams modeled
6
Rounds of probabilities
5+
Models in the composite
35 yrs
Of tournament history
Don’t fill out your bracket blind

Get the edges before tip-off.

Cinderella picks, bracket busters, and the full model composite — delivered the moment the bracket is announced.