The archive
Every angle of your bracket.
44 posts of data-driven March Madness analysis, newest first.
Mar 17, 20262026 Final Four Contenders - Model ResultsTo win your bracket pool, you’ve got to pick the right Champ. There will likely be others in your pool that picked the same champ. Your Final Four picks can be the…→Mar 17, 20262026 NCAA Tournament Champ Contenders - Model ResultsTo win your bracket pool, you've got to pick the right Champ. Here is a collection of computer model results from me (BracketResearch), KenPom , BartTorvik , ESPN , and EvanMiya .…→Mar 17, 20262026 First Round Upsets - Model ResultsPicking First Round Upsets can either wreck your bracket from the get-go or give you a head start on your way to bracket pool glory. Historically, March Madness averages 6-7 First Round…→Dec 22, 2025BracketNinja’s Weekly Bracket Intel – 12/22/25Curated college basketball links with March Madness implications I’ve scoured the web so you don’t have to. Below are some interesting college basketball reads from around the internet — always curated with…→Dec 18, 2025BracketNinja’s Weekly Bracket Intel - 12/18/25Curated college basketball links with March Madness implications I’ve scoured the web so you don’t have to. Below are some interesting college basketball reads from around the internet — always curated with…→Mar 19, 20242024 East Region Model ResultsThe 2024 NCAA Tournament East Region favorite is Connecticut. Surprise, surprise! All four models are in the same ballpark with Connecticut, too. The Models BR - My models for BracketResearch.com ESPN POM…→Mar 19, 20242024 West Region Model ResultsThe 2024 NCAA Tournament West Region is the most wide open. All four models agree - the 1-seed (North Carolina) isn't even the favorite to win the region! The Models BR -…→Mar 19, 20242024 South Region Model Results1-Houston is a huuuuuuge favorite to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament West Region. Now that they're coming from a "real" conference, they might finally have the chops to go all the way.…→Mar 19, 20242024 Midwest Region Model ResultsAccording to the models, 1-Purdue is a decent favorite, but 2-Tennessee has an almost 1-in-4 chance to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region. The Models BR - My models for BracketResearch.com…→Mar 19, 20242024 NCAA Tournament Champ Contenders - Model ResultsHouston's an even more heavy model favorite than last year, but this year they're coming from the best basketball conference in the land. Maybe the have what it takes to win 6…→Mar 19, 20242024 First Round Upsets - Model ResultsA First Round upset is when a double-digit seed wins their First Round game. I wonder why the ESPN model isn't on board with the only upset the other models give a…→Mar 19, 20242024 NCAA Tournament Early Busts - Model ResultsAn early bust is a 1-3 seed that loses in the first weekend of the tournament - failing to advance to the Sweet 16. Historically, we average seeing four Early Busts every…→Mar 19, 20242024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Busters - Model ResultsBracket busters are 6+ seeds that reach the Elite 8, thus wreaking bracket chaos. The historical average number of Bracket Busters in a tournament is 1.6. In the last 10 tournaments, we've…→Mar 19, 20242024 NCAA Tournament Cinderella Candidates - Model ResultsA Cinderella is a double-digit seed that wins at least 2 games, reaching the Sweet 16. We average seeing 2.2 Cinderellas every year, and we've only had two tournaments without one (1995…→Mar 18, 2024The 2024 NCAA Tournament Champ Will Be One of These Four TeamsTo win your pool, picking the Champ is key, so this is the most important post of the week. I've identified traits common to the past 20 NCAA Tournament champions that all…→Mar 18, 20242024 NCAA Tournament Final Four ContendersTurns out it's easier to eliminate teams from Final Four eligibility than it is to identify the teams that will reach the Final Four. So let's start eliminating. The Seed First, a…→Mar 13, 2024Do Play-in Game Winners Have an Edge in the NCAA Tournament?Oh sweet Mary Louise, it is the week of Selection Sunday! I’m so excited I could cry. Yesterday I was sitting here in my wife’s basement reading every team’s sports board; side…→Mar 8, 2024Final Four Teams are Road WarriorsI've found the best way to identify NCAA Tournament Final Four contenders is by process of elimination. One of the best criteria we can use to eliminate pretenders is a team's record…→Mar 7, 2024The 2024 NCAA Champion Will be from One of These ConferencesI need to update the Championship DNA page . I’ve updated – nay, upgraded – the conference criteria. It’s no surprise that the NCAA champs come from the best conferences, but it’s…→Mar 6, 2024Just How Crazy Was the 2023 NCAA Tournament?Yes, Virginia, the 2023 NCAA Tournament was Bonkers We all felt it, and now I’ve quantified it. Yes, the 2023 NCAA Tournament was super crazy. Felt like max chaos, right? Adam shared…→Mar 1, 2024Live by the Three, Die by the Three -- Part 2 -- the DeuceBefore the game last weekend against BYU (a high volume 3pt shooting team), Kansas coach Bill Self stated, “If they hit 13 three’s and we hit 3, they will win. It’s a…→Feb 16, 2024Do 3-Point Shooting Teams Win in the Tournament?The Setup I know we usually focus on the NCAA, but stick with me for a second. Did you know that Steph Curry has the record for taking and making the most…→Jan 22, 20242023 NCAA Tournament Post-Mortem2023 Post-Mortem You know, it’s the middle of January of the next year so I guess it’s about time that we did a port-mortem of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Lay off, I…→Mar 9, 2023Remember the Quarterfinal RuleAs the major conference tournaments get rolling this week, remember the Quarterfinal Rule – any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament quarterfinal WILL NOT win the national championship. The…→Mar 8, 2023Is Oral Roberts a Cinderella?IT’S HEEEEEEEEERE!!! It's March and the tournaments have started playing! We held our team meeting at Buffalo Wild Wings eating saucy chicken and watching 35 big screen TVs with various games going…→Feb 26, 2023The Eye Test Vs. Data AnalyticsI went to a game last night just for fun. The teams are irrelevant for the purpose of this conversation; suffice to say that both were middling, neither has a shot at…→Feb 22, 2023Mad Max in the Final FourIt is often easier to eliminate Final Four candidates than to identify them. For instance, if you look back through the history of all Final Four participants for the last 35 years…→Feb 13, 2023Who's your Bracket's Daddy? Run a DNA Test!Welcome to week 15 of the college basketball season. 15 is really not terribly significant, but two weeks ago was. So let's go in the way back machine, speed it up to…→Mar 15, 2022Computer Model Composite - 2022 NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every TeamI’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for…→Mar 14, 2022Think Twice Before Considering These Teams for a Final Four RunCorrectly picking the champ is the most important part of winning any bracket competition. Hitting on a Final Four pick or two is also key to having a top scoring NCAA Tournament…→Mar 14, 2022Top 2022 NCAA Tournament Championship ContendersTo win your bracket pool, you've gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. This year's model has…→Mar 14, 2022Top Final Four Contenders From the "Wide Open" South RegionWin your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com's computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. The South Region is the most competitive this year. By that, I mean there…→Mar 14, 2022Top Final Four Contenders in the Midwest RegionWin your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com's computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. The Midwest Region is the most top heavy in the bracket - there is…→Mar 14, 2022Top Final Four Contenders in the East RegionWin your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com's computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. The East Region is home to the double digit seed with the highest Final…→Mar 14, 2022Top Final Four Contenders in the West RegionWin your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com's computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. No surprise - Gonzaga's the favorite. Perhaps the biggest surprise is 5-Connecticut's not insignificant…→Mar 14, 2022Most Likely First Round Upsets 2022It sure is fun to correctly pick the inevitable First Round upsets. This year, both 10-Loyola-Chicago and 10-Miami are favorites to win their First Round games. 10-seeds have some very strong model…→Mar 14, 2022Most Likely Cinderellas - 2022Let's call a Cinderella team a double-digit seed that reaches the Sweet 16. This means they would pull off at least one but probably two upsets in the first weekend and have…→Mar 14, 2022Most Likely Bracket Busters - 2022Bracket Buster definition: a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8. Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so - about…→Mar 14, 2022Dark Horse Final Four Teams - 2022A dark horse Final Four team is a 5+ seed that reaches the Final Four. Even though 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, 10 of the last 11…→Mar 14, 2022Most Likely Busts - Top-Seeded Early Exits - 2022An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach…→Mar 10, 2022Only The Best Conferences Produce NCAA Tournament ChampsWe already know teams from mid-major conferences don't win the NCAA Tournament . More than that, though, we can set a minimum conference strength for a team to have a shot at…→Feb 22, 20222022 Providence and other good-seed-bad-computer-rank teams from past tournaments"I'm sorry, Dave. Providence isn't as good as their record and projected seed would indicate." With 2 weeks and some change until Selection Sunday, Providence has built an excellent resume. Projected as…→Feb 12, 2022Final Four Teams Win Away From HomeLoyola-Chicago won 78% of their games away from home before an epic Final Four run in 2018 Winning Away From Home So your team is pretty good this year. Congrats. It’s still…→Jan 31, 2022One of These Teams Will Win the 2022 NCAA TournamentLast week's AP Poll narrowed our list of contenders to 12 teams. 30 of the last 32 champs ranked in the top 12, seven weeks before the tournament started. At the end…→