World Cup 2026 / Schedule / MEX v ECU
Round of 32 · Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Mexico vs Ecuador 
The pick
Model probability to advance
61% MEX39% ECU
Composite of 1 sources — our model
61% MEX0% Draw39% ECU
Win, draw, and loss probabilities and expected goals are from our team-strength model. The composite averages every source we track for this match — see composite ratings for the full method.
Head to head
Expected shapes: Mexico 4-3-3, Ecuador 4-2-3-1.
Ruled out: MEX — Luis Malagón
Mexicovs
Ecuador
Model rating
FIFA ranking
Title odds
Squad value (top 26)
Players in top-5 leagues
Avg age (XI) · younger left
Squad strength by line (EA FC 26 ratings)
MEXECU
Top players
Mexico16 Julian Quinones
80
PAC88
SHO79
PAS70
DRI79
DEF36
PHY83
Chip ShotPrecision HeaderRapid
11 Santiago Gimenez
79
PAC78
SHO80
PAS70
DRI77
DEF46
PHY69
Precision Header
4 Edson Alvarez
78
PAC65
SHO58
PAS69
DRI72
DEF78
PHY79
AnticipateBlockBruiserSlide Tackle
Ecuador23 Moises Caicedo
87
PAC71
SHO64
PAS78
DRI81
DEF84
PHY82
Slide Tackle ★AnticipateInterceptPinged Pass
6 Willian Pacho
86
PAC80
SHO34
PAS62
DRI62
DEF86
PHY86
Bruiser ★AnticipateBlockJockey
3 Piero Hincapie
83
PAC84
SHO41
PAS65
DRI72
DEF84
PHY82
Slide Tackle ★BlockJockey
Key players to watch
CDM Ecuador
Ecuador23 Moises Caicedo
87
PAC71
SHO64
PAS78
DRI81
DEF84
PHY82
Slide Tackle ★AnticipateInterceptPinged Pass
CB Ecuador
Ecuador6 Willian Pacho
86
PAC80
SHO34
PAS62
DRI62
DEF86
PHY86
Bruiser ★AnticipateBlockJockey
CB Ecuador
Ecuador3 Piero Hincapie
83
PAC84
SHO41
PAS65
DRI72
DEF84
PHY82
Slide Tackle ★BlockJockey
ST Mexico
Mexico16 Julian Quinones
80
PAC88
SHO79
PAS70
DRI79
DEF36
PHY83
Chip ShotPrecision HeaderRapid
Player ratings are EA Sports FC 26 attributes, used here as a consistent, public proxy for player quality. Squad-level comparisons cover the players we could rate; coverage varies by team.