Composite ratings & predictions

Our model is one opinion. This page blends it with five independent ones — Elo ratings, Pelé ratings, FIFA ranking points, betting-market title odds, and the Opta supercomputer — into a single composite index, scaled so the top team sits at 100. Where the columns agree, the signal is strong; where they split, that’s where tournaments get interesting.

Every column is scaled 0–100 within its source. Click a column to sort by it.

Team	Composite	Our model	Elo	Pelé	FIFA	Market	Opta
1Spain	99.9	100.0	100.0	100.0	99.7	100.0	100.0
2Argentina	95.2	87.2	96.1	95.1	100.0	95.7	97.1
3Portugal	62.0	74.6	71.1	74.6	81.9	70.0	0.0
4Brazil	61.6	66.0	70.9	78.4	81.5	73.1	0.0
5Netherlands	59.8	71.9	68.2	70.8	79.5	68.3	0.0
6France	59.1	86.3	80.3	88.9	99.0	0.0	0.0
7England	58.2	84.7	87.0	85.6	91.8	0.0	0.0
8Germany	57.0	70.1	60.5	69.5	76.5	65.4	0.0
9Belgium	55.5	63.2	65.4	68.1	77.5	58.8	0.0
10Colombia	55.0	56.4	72.1	69.0	70.2	62.5	0.0
11Morocco	53.1	53.4	59.7	64.6	79.7	61.0	0.0
12Norway	51.1	54.7	65.8	70.9	46.8	68.3	0.0
13Mexico	50.1	47.6	61.1	59.0	68.4	64.2	0.0
14Switzerland	49.8	53.1	63.0	64.1	62.2	56.2	0.0
15Croatia	47.4	54.4	57.4	55.6	73.0	43.9	0.0
16Japan	46.4	44.2	58.1	58.7	64.2	53.3	0.0
17Uruguay	44.5	49.5	52.4	60.5	66.1	38.4	0.0
18Senegal	43.9	45.2	49.3	57.3	67.9	43.9	0.0
19United States	43.0	41.3	40.9	45.0	65.7	65.4	0.0
20Ecuador	41.5	36.5	56.0	61.6	53.7	40.9	0.0
21Austria	37.8	43.1	49.9	48.9	53.4	31.5	0.0
22Turkey	36.3	52.0	53.7	57.4	54.9	0.0	0.0
23Egypt	34.2	38.6	40.3	43.9	47.6	34.5	0.0
24Ivory Coast	33.9	35.7	38.5	46.6	44.1	38.4	0.0
25Algeria	33.6	38.1	42.0	43.2	49.1	29.0	0.0
26Paraguay	32.6	30.1	49.1	56.1	38.1	22.0	0.0
27Canada	32.5	30.0	38.7	41.0	47.1	38.4	0.0
28Australia	32.4	21.3	46.8	41.5	50.4	34.5	0.0
29Iran	32.0	42.1	43.0	34.2	57.2	15.6	0.0
30Sweden	31.7	37.4	39.0	43.2	38.9	31.5	0.0
31South Korea	31.1	28.8	38.0	35.9	52.6	31.5	0.0
32Scotland	30.5	32.6	40.7	43.2	37.8	29.0	0.0
33DR Congo	26.7	30.8	35.7	39.1	32.9	22.0	0.0
34Czech Republic	22.6	29.5	32.8	35.3	38.3	0.0	0.0
35Panama	21.5	26.8	30.1	28.4	43.8	0.0	0.0
36Ghana	18.1	20.7	19.4	29.7	11.8	26.9	0.0
37South Africa	17.7	15.2	18.0	25.5	25.3	22.0	0.0
38Bosnia and Herzegovina	17.6	13.7	23.6	27.5	18.5	22.0	0.0
39Uzbekistan	17.0	22.8	26.8	22.0	30.4	0.0	0.0
40Cape Verde	16.8	16.0	25.3	21.7	15.8	22.0	0.0
41Jordan	13.7	20.1	26.4	17.3	18.6	0.0	0.0
42Tunisia	13.7	11.7	18.4	18.9	33.3	0.0	0.0
43Saudi Arabia	13.3	11.1	22.5	18.5	24.6	3.1	0.0
44Iraq	12.2	13.3	18.3	13.1	28.3	0.0	0.0
45New Zealand	6.1	4.8	15.0	13.4	0.0	3.1	0.0
46Haiti	5.7	6.4	12.9	11.9	2.8	0.0	0.0
47Qatar	4.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	29.0	0.0	0.0
48Curaçao	1.9	0.6	3.3	4.4	3.2	0.0	0.0

Probability (%) of reaching each stage. Now that the knockout rounds are underway, these update from our model after every result — eliminated teams go to zero — with the live betting market folded into the title column.

Team	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Title
1Spain	>99	>99	>99	>99	>99	>99
2Argentina	>99	>99	>99	>99	>99	0.0
3Brazil	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4Portugal	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5Norway	>99	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0
6Netherlands	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7United States	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8Germany	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9Mexico	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10Colombia	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11Morocco	>99	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0
12Belgium	>99	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0
13Switzerland	>99	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0
14Japan	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
15Croatia	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
16Senegal	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17Ecuador	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
18Canada	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
19Ivory Coast	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
20Uruguay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
21Australia	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
22Egypt	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
23Austria	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
24South Korea	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
25Sweden	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
26Algeria	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
27Scotland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
28Ghana	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
29Bosnia and Herzegovina	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
30Paraguay	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
31Cape Verde	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
32DR Congo	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
33South Africa	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
34Iran	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
35New Zealand	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
36Saudi Arabia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
37Czech Republic	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
38Curaçao	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
39England	>99	>99	>99	>99	0.0	0.0
40France	>99	>99	>99	>99	0.0	0.0
41Panama	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
42Jordan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
43Haiti	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
44Iraq	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
45Qatar	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
46Tunisia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
47Turkey	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
48Uzbekistan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Group games where our model’s most likely result differs from the betting market’s favorite.

KOR v CZEThu, Jun 11us: away win 35% · market: home win 35%

GER v CUWSun, Jun 14us: NaN% · market: home win 91%

ARG v CPVFri, Jul 3us: home win 96% · market: NaN%

ESP v AUTThu, Jul 2us: home win 92% · market: NaN%

ENG v CODWed, Jul 1us: home win 91% · market: NaN%

GER v PARMon, Jun 29us: home win 84% · market: NaN%

Each source is normalized to a 0–100 scale (best team = 100) and the composite index is their average: our team-strength model, World Football Elo, Pelé ratings, FIFA ranking points, title odds implied by the betting market, and Opta’s supercomputer. Pre-tournament, round-by-round probabilities averaged our simulation with Opta’s published numbers; during the knockout rounds they update live from our model and the betting market after every result. Match probabilities additionally fold in sportsbook and prediction-market prices, with the source count shown on each match page. None of it is betting advice — it’s a transparent look at how six independent systems see the same tournament.