Composite ratings & predictions

Our model is one opinion. This page blends it with five independent ones — Elo ratings, Pelé ratings, FIFA ranking points, betting-market title odds, and the Opta supercomputer — into a single composite index, scaled so the top team sits at 100. Where the columns agree, the signal is strong; where they split, that’s where tournaments get interesting.

Every column is scaled 0–100 within its source. Click a column to sort by it.

Team	Composite	Our model	Elo	Pelé	FIFA	Market	Opta
1Spain	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	99.8	100.0	100.0
2Argentina	94.5	89.8	94.3	97.2	99.6	90.2	96.1
3France	94.1	92.6	87.2	87.9	100.0	98.6	98.2
4England	89.4	82.9	81.9	89.8	91.4	93.9	96.8
5Portugal	83.6	79.1	77.2	79.0	81.0	92.0	93.2
6Brazil	82.7	70.7	77.4	85.0	80.5	90.2	92.6
7Germany	79.4	76.8	69.4	79.6	75.3	83.6	91.7
8Netherlands	77.9	75.1	71.6	74.5	79.9	78.1	88.2
9Colombia	71.7	60.0	76.2	74.9	69.1	67.2	83.1
10Belgium	70.4	61.3	64.3	66.8	76.1	70.2	84.0
11Norway	66.5	56.2	67.0	73.2	45.2	70.2	87.3
12Croatia	66.4	61.6	66.7	60.5	73.1	56.0	80.4
13Uruguay	66.3	58.0	64.0	69.9	65.7	59.1	81.3
14Morocco	66.2	55.6	55.2	57.5	79.8	67.2	82.0
15Switzerland	64.0	54.5	63.9	63.6	61.7	59.1	81.2
16Turkey	63.9	60.2	66.6	66.5	53.3	59.1	77.7
17Japan	63.8	50.8	65.9	60.7	63.6	63.6	78.3
18Senegal	63.1	52.3	59.6	62.9	68.9	59.1	75.5
19Ecuador	62.7	46.6	70.2	70.7	52.6	56.0	80.1
20Mexico	61.8	48.5	61.7	58.1	67.1	59.1	76.2
21United States	57.0	43.8	41.4	48.4	65.7	63.6	79.1
22Austria	54.2	47.2	55.6	53.7	52.4	45.9	70.7
23Canada	50.2	37.5	49.9	49.6	46.1	45.9	72.0
24Paraguay	49.2	35.4	56.1	57.3	37.3	37.6	71.4
25Algeria	47.7	43.2	47.7	46.8	47.5	37.6	63.4
26Sweden	47.4	38.3	39.5	45.2	39.1	52.4	69.6
27South Korea	46.5	35.7	45.8	40.0	51.5	37.6	68.6
28Iran	46.5	47.7	47.7	34.6	56.0	26.3	66.5
29Scotland	46.1	37.9	49.0	49.9	36.4	37.6	65.6
30Egypt	44.2	33.8	37.4	40.1	47.3	37.6	69.2
31Ivory Coast	43.9	36.4	37.2	43.4	42.2	41.2	63.0
32Czech Republic	43.8	36.1	43.3	42.9	39.0	37.6	64.2
33Australia	42.8	25.3	48.4	40.9	50.2	26.3	65.6
34Panama	39.2	41.7	42.0	35.7	43.5	15.0	57.7
35Uzbekistan	35.0	40.2	39.8	29.9	31.5	15.0	53.4
36DR Congo	33.1	29.9	31.4	34.6	33.2	19.7	50.0
37Tunisia	33.0	24.1	28.1	26.8	33.8	26.3	59.2
38Bosnia and Herzegovina	31.5	13.5	23.6	29.0	19.6	37.6	65.9
39Jordan	28.9	31.1	35.2	20.0	18.4	15.0	53.4
40Iraq	26.8	23.7	25.3	19.2	27.8	15.0	50.0
41Ghana	25.5	17.6	12.1	23.4	10.9	26.3	63.0
42South Africa	23.7	10.6	13.0	23.1	24.9	15.0	55.8
43Saudi Arabia	23.1	12.0	21.1	17.1	23.5	15.0	50.0
44New Zealand	19.2	11.3	19.2	16.5	0.0	15.0	53.4
45Cape Verde	18.8	8.8	21.3	14.4	15.0	15.0	38.4
46Qatar	16.8	3.0	0.0	0.0	29.1	15.0	53.4
47Haiti	7.5	11.4	17.3	14.5	1.7	0.0	0.0
48Curaçao	1.3	0.0	1.8	3.9	2.2	0.0	0.0

Composite probability (%) of reaching each stage — our simulation and Opta’s averaged, with the betting market folded into the title column.

Team	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Title
1Spain	>99	76	57	45	30	18
2France	96	75	53	38	24	15
3England	96	69	48	31	18	10
4Argentina	97	64	48	33	20	10.0
5Portugal	94	64	42	26	15	8.1
6Brazil	96	61	38	21	11	6.3
7Germany	98	68	36	23	12	5.9
8Netherlands	91	53	35	18	9.1	4.2
9Norway	80	47	25	13	5.7	2.4
10Belgium	91	58	31	12	5.5	2.3
11Colombia	83	44	22	10	4.5	1.8
12Morocco	87	44	23	9.7	4.0	1.7
13Uruguay	88	40	21	9.8	4.1	1.4
14Croatia	80	43	21	10	4.3	1.4
15Switzerland	92	55	24	9.5	3.5	1.2
16United States	80	46	21	7.8	3.0	1.2
17Japan	78	35	18	7.6	3.0	1.2
18Turkey	83	48	23	8.7	3.2	1.1
19Mexico	90	54	23	8.1	2.8	<1
20Ecuador	84	39	15	6.3	2.5	<1
21Senegal	64	31	14	5.5	1.9	<1
22Canada	85	46	18	5.3	1.7	<1
23Austria	67	23	9.5	3.7	1.3	<1
24Sweden	61	20	7.9	2.7	<1	<1
25Paraguay	62	27	9.2	3.0	<1	<1
26Iran	76	36	13	4.0	1.1	<1
27Egypt	67	28	9.0	2.5	<1	<1
28South Korea	72	33	11	2.9	<1	<1
29Scotland	64	22	7.8	2.4	<1	<1
30Ivory Coast	67	24	7.3	2.1	<1	<1
31Czech Republic	68	30	9.6	2.3	<1	<1
32Algeria	59	18	7.0	2.4	<1	<1
33Bosnia and Herzegovina	57	20	6.5	1.7	<1	<1
34Australia	48	19	5.9	1.8	<1	<1
35Ghana	38	12	3.7	1.3	<1	<1
36Panama	51	17	5.7	1.8	<1	<1
37Uzbekistan	48	15	5.0	1.5	<1	<1
38Tunisia	40	10.0	3.2	<1	<1	<1
39DR Congo	41	11	3.4	<1	<1	<1
40Jordan	41	11	3.3	<1	<1	<1
41South Africa	42	13	3.6	<1	<1	<1
42New Zealand	37	11	2.6	<1	<1	<1
43Qatar	34	9.6	2.4	<1	<1	<1
44Iraq	26	7.9	2.2	<1	<1	<1
45Saudi Arabia	34	8.1	2.1	<1	<1	<1
46Cape Verde	31	6.9	1.6	<1	<1	<1
47Curaçao	17	3.1	<1	<1	<1	<1
48Haiti	21	3.6	<1	<1	<1	<1

Title odds where our model and the betting market split the most, in percentage points. When the tournament ends, this list is the model’s report card.

Model higher than market

Spainus 23% · mkt 15%+8.1

Franceus 17% · mkt 14%+3.6

Argentinaus 12% · mkt 8.2%+3.5

Market higher than model

Brazilus 4.2% · mkt 8.2%-4.0

Norwayus 1.2% · mkt 2.4%-1.2

Englandus 9.1% · mkt 10%-1.2

Portugalus 8.1% · mkt 9.1%-1.1

Group games where our model’s most likely result differs from the betting market’s favorite.

GHA v PANWed, Jun 17us: away win 51% · market: home win 46%

EGY v IRNFri, Jun 26us: away win 44% · market: home win 42%

COD v UZBSat, Jun 27us: away win 42% · market: home win 41%

TUR v USAThu, Jun 25us: home win 46% · market: away win 38%

CPV v KSAFri, Jun 26us: away win 37% · market: home win 37%

KOR v CZEThu, Jun 11us: away win 35% · market: home win 36%

Each source is normalized to a 0–100 scale (best team = 100) and the composite index is their average: our team-strength model, World Football Elo, Pelé ratings, FIFA ranking points, title odds implied by the betting market, and Opta’s supercomputer. Round-by-round probabilities average our tournament simulation with Opta’s published numbers; match probabilities additionally fold in sportsbook and prediction-market prices, with the source count shown on each match page. None of it is betting advice — it’s a transparent look at how six independent systems see the same tournament.