Composite ratings & predictions

Our model is one opinion. This page blends it with five independent ones — Elo ratings, Pelé ratings, FIFA ranking points, betting-market title odds, and the Opta supercomputer — into a single composite index, scaled so the top team sits at 100. Where the columns agree, the signal is strong; where they split, that’s where tournaments get interesting.

Every column is scaled 0–100 within its source. Click a column to sort by it.

Team	Composite	Our model	Elo	Pelé	FIFA	Market	Opta
1France	98.8	99.0	97.9	96.8	99.0	100.0	100.0
2Spain	96.6	100.0	100.0	100.0	99.7	86.7	93.5
3Argentina	95.6	92.4	98.9	98.1	100.0	89.4	95.0
4England	87.5	87.5	84.9	88.9	91.8	79.7	92.5
5Portugal	80.8	82.0	80.5	80.9	81.9	74.5	85.3
6Colombia	73.2	61.6	79.9	75.8	70.2	68.3	83.1
7Morocco	70.6	60.0	68.2	66.5	79.7	63.9	85.2
8Norway	70.0	61.6	75.0	73.1	46.8	74.5	89.2
9Belgium	68.6	64.8	66.7	67.7	77.5	56.7	78.0
10Mexico	67.1	51.6	71.1	65.8	68.4	68.3	77.6
11Brazil	66.1	71.4	77.8	87.9	81.5	77.7	0.0
12Switzerland	65.5	58.6	71.1	68.4	62.2	54.1	78.6
13Netherlands	63.3	77.7	74.9	75.4	79.5	72.7	0.0
14United States	60.4	49.1	51.7	53.8	65.7	63.9	78.4
15Germany	60.3	75.6	66.4	73.8	76.5	69.6	0.0
16Croatia	50.1	58.8	63.0	59.3	73.0	46.7	0.0
17Japan	49.2	47.9	63.8	62.7	64.2	56.7	0.0
18Uruguay	47.0	53.5	57.5	64.4	66.1	40.9	0.0
19Egypt	46.7	42.8	44.9	46.0	47.6	30.8	68.0
20Senegal	46.3	48.1	54.1	61.1	67.9	46.7	0.0
21Ecuador	43.9	39.6	61.5	65.0	53.7	43.5	0.0
22Austria	40.1	46.6	54.8	52.1	53.4	33.5	0.0
23Turkey	38.5	56.2	59.0	61.1	54.9	0.0	0.0
24Ivory Coast	35.9	38.6	42.2	49.5	44.1	40.9	0.0
25Algeria	35.5	41.2	46.1	46.1	49.1	30.8	0.0
26Canada	35.4	32.6	42.5	49.3	47.1	40.9	0.0
27Paraguay	34.7	32.8	53.9	59.9	38.1	23.4	0.0
28Australia	34.4	23.4	51.3	44.4	50.4	36.7	0.0
29Iran	33.8	45.5	47.2	36.5	57.2	16.6	0.0
30Sweden	33.6	40.4	42.8	45.9	38.9	33.5	0.0
31South Korea	32.9	31.2	41.7	38.3	52.6	33.5	0.0
32Scotland	32.4	35.2	44.7	46.1	37.8	30.8	0.0
33DR Congo	28.5	33.3	39.2	41.9	32.9	23.4	0.0
34Czech Republic	23.9	31.8	36.0	37.5	38.3	0.0	0.0
35Panama	22.8	28.8	33.0	31.0	43.8	0.0	0.0
36Ghana	19.3	22.3	21.3	31.6	11.8	28.6	0.0
37Bosnia and Herzegovina	18.7	14.8	25.9	29.4	18.5	23.4	0.0
38South Africa	18.6	16.1	19.8	27.0	25.3	23.4	0.0
39Uzbekistan	18.0	24.5	29.4	23.5	30.4	0.0	0.0
40Cape Verde	17.9	17.1	27.8	23.3	15.8	23.4	0.0
41Jordan	14.6	21.5	29.0	18.5	18.6	0.0	0.0
42Tunisia	14.3	12.3	20.2	20.1	33.3	0.0	0.0
43Saudi Arabia	14.1	12.1	24.7	19.6	24.6	3.2	0.0
44Iraq	12.7	13.8	20.1	14.0	28.3	0.0	0.0
45New Zealand	6.6	5.4	16.4	14.3	0.0	3.2	0.0
46Haiti	6.0	6.6	14.2	12.4	2.8	0.0	0.0
47Qatar	4.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	29.0	0.0	0.0
48Curaçao	1.9	0.2	3.6	4.7	3.2	0.0	0.0

Composite probability (%) of reaching each stage — our simulation and Opta’s averaged, with the betting market folded into the title column.

Team	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Title
1France	>99	>99	>99	75	46	28
2Argentina	>99	>99	82	58	35	16
3Spain	>99	>99	61	46	25	14
4England	>99	>99	85	56	31	12
5Portugal	>99	>99	39	25	11	5.5
6Norway	>99	>99	>99	37	16	5.1
7Morocco	>99	>99	>99	25	9.1	3.1
8Colombia	>99	>99	56	21	8.5	2.8
9Brazil	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9
10United States	>99	>99	49	14	3.9	1.7
11Belgium	>99	>99	51	15	4.8	1.6
12Mexico	>99	>99	15	6.5	2.8	1.6
13Switzerland	>99	>99	44	15	5.5	1.4
14Netherlands	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4
15Germany	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1
16Japan	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
17Egypt	>99	>99	18	6.4	1.6	<1
18Senegal	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
19Croatia	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
20Ecuador	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
21Canada	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
22Ivory Coast	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
23Uruguay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
24Australia	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
25Sweden	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
26South Korea	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
27Austria	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
28Scotland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
29Algeria	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
30Ghana	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
31Bosnia and Herzegovina	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
32DR Congo	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
33South Africa	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
34Paraguay	>99	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
35Cape Verde	>99	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
36Iran	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
37New Zealand	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
38Saudi Arabia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
39Czech Republic	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
40Curaçao	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
41Panama	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
42Jordan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
43Haiti	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
44Iraq	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
45Qatar	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
46Tunisia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
47Turkey	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1
48Uzbekistan	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	<1

Title odds where our model and the betting market split the most, in percentage points. When the tournament ends, this list is the model’s report card.

Model higher than market

Englandus 17% · mkt 6.6%+10.2

Spainus 18% · mkt 11%+7.2

Argentinaus 19% · mkt 13%+6.1

Portugalus 7.2% · mkt 4.6%+2.6

Franceus 28% · mkt 27%+1.5

Market higher than model

Brazilus 0.0% · mkt 5.8%-5.8

Netherlandsus 0.0% · mkt 4.1%-4.1

Germanyus 0.0% · mkt 3.3%-3.3

Mexicous 0.0% · mkt 3.0%-3.0

Norwayus 3.1% · mkt 4.6%-1.5

Group games where our model’s most likely result differs from the betting market’s favorite.

ARG v CPVFri, Jul 3us: home win 95% · market: NaN%

FRA v SWETue, Jun 30us: home win 91% · market: NaN%

ENG v CODWed, Jul 1us: home win 89% · market: NaN%

ESP v AUTThu, Jul 2us: home win 89% · market: NaN%

GER v PARMon, Jun 29us: home win 84% · market: NaN%

COL v GHAFri, Jul 3us: home win 82% · market: NaN%

Each source is normalized to a 0–100 scale (best team = 100) and the composite index is their average: our team-strength model, World Football Elo, Pelé ratings, FIFA ranking points, title odds implied by the betting market, and Opta’s supercomputer. Round-by-round probabilities average our tournament simulation with Opta’s published numbers; match probabilities additionally fold in sportsbook and prediction-market prices, with the source count shown on each match page. None of it is betting advice — it’s a transparent look at how six independent systems see the same tournament.