Computer Model Composite - 2022 NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Rutgers, Indiana, Texas A&M-CC, and Wright State win their First Four games.

I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!

I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

BR - BracketResearch.com
538
POM - KenPom
TPR - The Power Rank
ESPN - ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI)
EM - evanmiya.com (kind of - I couldn't find all of his probabilities)

Computer Model Composite - 2022 NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

Champs

First Round Upsets

Bracket Busters (6+ seeds reaching the Elite 8)

Cinderellas (10+ seeds reaching the Sweet 16)

Busts (Top 1-3 seeds not reaching the Sweet 16)

Dark Horse Final Four (5+ seeds reaching the Final Four)

Composite for All Teams/All Rounds