I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Rutgers, Indiana, Texas A&M-CC, and Wright State win their First Four games.
I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!
I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
- BR – BracketResearch.com
- 538
- POM – KenPom
- TPR – The Power Rank
- ESPN – ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI)
- EM – evanmiya.com (kind of – I couldn’t find all of his probabilities)
Champs
![](https://i0.wp.com/bracketresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-22.png?resize=701%2C601&ssl=1)
First Round Upsets
![](https://i0.wp.com/bracketresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-17.png?resize=780%2C751&ssl=1)
Bracket Busters (6+ seeds reaching the Elite 8)
![](https://i0.wp.com/bracketresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-21.png?resize=790%2C512&ssl=1)
Cinderellas (10+ seeds reaching the Sweet 16)
![](https://i0.wp.com/bracketresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-20.png?resize=770%2C481&ssl=1)
Busts (Top 1-3 seeds not reaching the Sweet 16)
![](https://i0.wp.com/bracketresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-19.png?resize=734%2C152&ssl=1)
Dark Horse Final Four (5+ seeds reaching the Final Four)
![](https://i0.wp.com/bracketresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-23.png?resize=791%2C301&ssl=1)
Composite for All Teams/All Rounds
![](https://i0.wp.com/bracketresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-25.png?resize=462%2C1024&ssl=1)
One response to “Computer Model Composite – 2022 NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team”
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