Title simulator

We simulate the whole tournament thousands of times from each team’s strength rating. Switch the round below to see who’s most likely to win their group, survive each knockout round, or lift the trophy.

Win groupReach R32Reach QFReach semisReach finalWin title

1 SpainGrp H100%

2 MexicoGrp A0.0%

3 South KoreaGrp A0.0%

4 South AfricaGrp A0.0%

5 CanadaGrp B0.0%

6 Bosnia and HerzegovinaGrp B0.0%

7 QatarGrp B0.0%

8 Czech RepublicGrp A0.0%

9 BrazilGrp C0.0%

10 MoroccoGrp C0.0%

11 HaitiGrp C0.0%

12 ScotlandGrp C0.0%

13 United StatesGrp D0.0%

14 ParaguayGrp D0.0%

15 AustraliaGrp D0.0%

16 SwitzerlandGrp B0.0%

17 TurkeyGrp D0.0%

18 GermanyGrp E0.0%

19 Ivory CoastGrp E0.0%

20 CuraçaoGrp E0.0%

Show all 48 teams

Teams our model rates as more likely to win it all than the betting market implies — the bigger the gap, the bigger the perceived value.

SpainMarket +475 (17%)+82.6

Probabilities are the model’s, not a sportsbook’s, and they don’t account for in-tournament injuries or form swings. “Edge” compares the model’s title probability to the market-implied probability in percentage points. Informational only — not betting advice.