Title simulator

We simulate the whole tournament thousands of times from each team’s strength rating. Switch the round below to see who’s most likely to win their group, survive each knockout round, or lift the trophy.

Win groupReach R32Reach QFReach semisReach finalWin title

1 FranceGrp I31%

2 SpainGrp H20%

3 ArgentinaGrp J19%

4 EnglandGrp L17%

5 PortugalGrp K4.6%

6 NorwayGrp I2.2%

7 MoroccoGrp C1.6%

8 BelgiumGrp G1.6%

9 ColombiaGrp K1.5%

10 SwitzerlandGrp B1.0%

11 United StatesGrp D0.3%

12 EgyptGrp G0.1%

13 Czech RepublicGrp A0.0%

14 CanadaGrp B0.0%

15 South KoreaGrp A0.0%

16 MexicoGrp A0.0%

17 TurkeyGrp D0.0%

18 AustraliaGrp D0.0%

19 ParaguayGrp D0.0%

20 ScotlandGrp C0.0%

Show all 48 teams

Teams our model rates as more likely to win it all than the betting market implies — the bigger the gap, the bigger the perceived value.

FranceMarket +500 (17%)+14.0

ArgentinaMarket +900 (10%)+9.5

EnglandMarket +650 (13%)+4.1

SpainMarket +475 (17%)+2.3

Probabilities are the model’s, not a sportsbook’s, and they don’t account for in-tournament injuries or form swings. “Edge” compares the model’s title probability to the market-implied probability in percentage points. Informational only — not betting advice.