Title simulator

We simulate the whole tournament thousands of times from each team’s strength rating. Switch the round below to see who’s most likely to win their group, survive each knockout round, or lift the trophy.

Win groupReach R32Reach QFReach semisReach finalWin title

1 SpainGrp H25%

2 FranceGrp I18%

3 ArgentinaGrp J14%

4 EnglandGrp L9.2%

5 PortugalGrp K6.7%

6 GermanyGrp E5.7%

7 NetherlandsGrp F5.0%

8 BrazilGrp C3.4%

9 BelgiumGrp G1.6%

10 CroatiaGrp L1.6%

11 TurkeyGrp D1.4%

12 ColombiaGrp K1.0%

13 UruguayGrp H0.9%

14 NorwayGrp I0.9%

15 MoroccoGrp C0.9%

16 SwitzerlandGrp B0.8%

17 SenegalGrp I0.5%

18 JapanGrp F0.5%

19 MexicoGrp A0.4%

20 IranGrp G0.4%

Show all 48 teams

Teams our model rates as more likely to win it all than the betting market implies — the bigger the gap, the bigger the perceived value.

SpainMarket +475 (17%)+8.0

ArgentinaMarket +900 (10%)+4.1

Probabilities are the model’s, not a sportsbook’s, and they don’t account for in-tournament injuries or form swings. “Edge” compares the model’s title probability to the market-implied probability in percentage points. Informational only — not betting advice.