2024 NCAA Tournament Final Four Contenders

Turns out it's easier to eliminate teams from Final Four eligibility than it is to identify the teams that will reach the Final Four. So let's start eliminating.

The Seed

First, a 12+ seed has never reached the Final Four, so let's assume that trend continues. We, therefore, start off with 46 (including all 6 10-seeds) potential Final Four teams, and start eliminating ones that don't measure up.

Road/Neutral Site Record

Final Four teams are proven road warriors - they've almost all had at least a 0.500 road/neutral record entering the NCAA Tournament. There have been only two outliers in last 80 Final Four teams, and they were simply lucky.

Teams missing the (0.500 road/neutral) mark:

4-Alabama
4-Kansas
5-Wisconsin
6-BYU
7-Texas
8-Nebraska
9-Northwestern
9-Michigan St
10-Colorado

Power Ratings

I've calculated power ratings for various team stats. Among the past 80 Final Four teams, there are a few ratings that have a significant floor we can use to eliminate more teams.

Teams not meeting additional thresholds:

Scoring

6-South Carolina
7-Florida
8-Utah St
9-Northwestern
9-Texas A&M
10-Virginia
11-Oregon
11-NC State
11-Duquesne

FG%

9-Texas A&M

def FG%

3-Baylor
5-Wisconsin
9-TCU
9-Northwestern
9-Texas A&M
10-Boise St
11-Oregon
11-NC State

Rebounds

2-Marquette
8-Nebraska
9-Northwestern
10-Nevada
10-Colorado St
10-Virginia
11-NC State
11-Duquesne

Q1&2 Record

7-Texas
8-Miss State
9-TCU
9-Michigan State
11-NC State

Def Efficiency

6-Texas Tech
7-Texas
9-TCU

Some teams have multiple whammies, but overall, we just eliminated 25 teams! Of course, one of these teams could reach the Final Four. We could dream up any number of scenarios, but they would be setting a new low bar in one of the above metrics.

Your Official List of 2024 Final Four Candidates

1-Houston, Purdue, UConn, UNC
2-Tenn, Arizona, Iowa State
3-Creighton, Illinois, Kentucky
4-Auburn, Duke
5-San Diego St, St Mary’s, Gonzaga
6-Clemson
7-Washington State, Dayton
8-FAU 10-Drake
11-New Mexico