An early bust is a 1-3 seed that loses in the first weekend of the tournament – failing to advance to the Sweet 16. Historically, we average seeing four Early Busts every year.
Four top-3 seeds have at least a 40% chance of being eliminated this weekend. ESPN seems a little gun shy on identifying potential Early Busts…
The Models
- BR – My models for BracketResearch.com
- ESPN
- POM – KenPom
- Tor – Bart Torvik
Observations
- Streaky Kentucky is a high risk pick for a deep run in the tournament
- Based on these probabilities, ESPN is the only model not in line with historic averages. Expected # of Early Busts:
- BR: 4.1
- ESPN: 3.1
- POM: 4.2
- Tor: 4.0
- 1-North Carolina is more likely to exit the tournament early than three 2-seeds and a 3-seed. Yikes!
