2026 Final Four Contenders - Model Results

To win your bracket pool, you’ve got to pick the right Champ. There will likely be others in your pool that picked the same champ. Your Final Four picks can be the ultimate deciding factor. Here is a collection of computer model results from me (BracketResearch), KenPom, BartTorvik, ESPN, and EvanMiya, to keep in mind when making your Final Four picks.

According to the models, we’re very top-heavy this year. We've got another crop of VERY good 1-seeds this year. We've only seen 2 tournaments with all four 1-seeds in the Final Four, and one of those was last year. According to the average of the model probabilities, we only have a 5% chance of all four 1 seeds making it again this year.

Observations

• Average implied probability of us seeing a all four 1-seeds in the Final Four is only 5%
• Duke is a consensus MASSIVE favorite to win their region - all 5 models predict Duke is more likely to win the region than not (all above 50%)
• Florida's chances of winning the South Region are much lower than the other 1-seeds winning theirs
• South Region is "wide open" the top 3 seeds each having a win probability greater than 20%
• 5-seeds Vanderbilt and St. John's have the highest likelihoods outside of the 1-3 seeds