Netherlands vs Japan 
The pick
Win, draw, and loss probabilities and expected goals are from our team-strength model. Public consensus from 1 source: Forebet (model).
Head to head
Expected shapes: Netherlands 4-3-3, Japan 3-4-2-1.
Ruled out: NED — Jurriën Timber, Xavi Simons · JPN — Kaoru Mitoma, Takumi Minamino
Netherlands Netherlands JapanKey players to watch
Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands JapanProjected XIs
Most-likely starting elevens based on recent selections.
Netherlands- 1M Flekken
- 2D Dumfries
- 3S de Vrij
- 4V van Dijk
- 5N Aké
- 6J Schouten
- 7Q Timber
- 8X Simons
- 9D Malen
- 10B Brobbey
- 11C Gakpo
Japan- 1Z Suzuki
- 2T Watanabe
- 3S Taniguchi
- 4H Ito
- 5R Doan
- 6K Sano
- 7D Kamada
- 8K Nakamura
- 9J Ito
- 10K Mitoma
- 11A Ueda
Storylines
World Cup 2026: Group F Predictions and Preview
Opta makes Netherlands the Group F favourites (48.2% to win the group, 88.2% to qualify), with Japan and Sweden also strongly fancied to advance. Netherlands have lost only one of their last 19 World Cup matches and not a group-stage game since 1994.
Goals, Growth and a Glass Ceiling: Japan Aiming Higher at 2026 World Cup Despite Key Absences
Japan enter buoyed by recent wins over Brazil and England and a record 51-goal AFC qualifying haul, but go in without injured Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino. A first-ever quarter-final is the stated aim under Hajime Moriyasu.
Player ratings are EA Sports FC 26 attributes, used here as a consistent, public proxy for player quality. Squad-level comparisons cover the players we could rate; coverage varies by team.