United States vs Australia 
The pick
Win, draw, and loss probabilities and expected goals are from our team-strength model. The composite averages every source we track for this match — see composite ratings for the full method. Public consensus from 1 source: Kalshi (prediction market).
Head to head
Expected shapes: United States 3-4-2-1, Australia 3-4-2-1.
Ruled out: USA — Patrick Agyemang, Johnny Cardoso, 15 Cristian Roldan · AUS — Riley McGree, Lewis Miller, 7 Mathew Leckie, 4 Jacob Italiano
United States United States AustraliaKey players to watch
United States United States United States AustraliaProjected XIs
Most-likely starting elevens based on recent selections.
United States- 24Matt Freese
- 6Auston Trusty
- 3Chris Richards
- 5Antonee Robinson
- 8Weston McKennie
- 10Christian Pulisic
- 14Sebastian Berhalter
- 16Alex Freeman
- 17Malik Tillman
- 21Tim Weah
- 11Aidan Morris
Australia- 1P Izzo
- 2L Miller
- 3K Trewin
- 4M Degenek
- 5C Burgess
- 6K Rowles
- 7C Metcalfe
- 8J Irvine
- 9A O'Neill
- 10R McGree
- 11M Touré
Storylines
World Cup 2026: Group D Predictions and Preview
USA are favourites to top Group D (32.4%) and look to Christian Pulisic, who was involved in all three of their goals at the 2022 World Cup. Australia are the group's most experienced but lowest-rated side, having lost their opening match in five of six previous World Cups.
Socceroos World Cup 2026 Preview: Fixtures, Final Squad, Group D and How to Watch
Tony Popovic named a 26-man squad with 17 potential debutants and set an ambitious quarter-final target. Australia qualified directly for the first time in 12 years by edging Saudi Arabia and rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks.
Player ratings are EA Sports FC 26 attributes, used here as a consistent, public proxy for player quality. Squad-level comparisons cover the players we could rate; coverage varies by team.