Final: NED 5–1 SWE🕒 1 PM ET📺 FOX · Telemundo📍 NRG Stadium, Houston
The pick
62% NED24% Draw14% SWE
Model scoreline 1-0Expected goals 1.74 – 0.71
Composite of 2 sources — DraftKings, our model
60% NED24% Draw16% SWE
DraftKings: NED -155 · Draw +320 · SWE +425
Win, draw, and loss probabilities and expected goals are from our team-strength model. The composite averages every source we track for this match — see composite ratings for the full method.
Head to head
Expected shapes: Netherlands 4-3-3, Sweden 4-4-2.
Ruled out: NED — Jurriën Timber, Stefan de Vrij, Xavi Simons, Matthijs de Ligt, Jerdy Schouten · SWE — 4 Isak Hien
Most-likely starting elevens based on recent selections.
Netherlands
1M Flekken
2D Dumfries
3S de Vrij
4V van Dijk
5N Aké
6J Schouten
7Q Timber
8X Simons
9D Malen
10B Brobbey
11C Gakpo
Sweden
1V Johansson
2E Holm
3G Lagerbielke
4I Hien
5D Svensson
6A Bernhardsson
7J Karlström
8Y Ayari
9A Elanga
10B Nygren
11M Svanberg
Storylines
2026 FIFA World Cup: Group F preview, what to know
Group F preview profiling Netherlands (No. 7, three-time finalists led by Van Dijk, Gakpo, Reijnders) and Sweden (No. 38, first World Cup since 2018, powered by strike pair Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak).
Player ratings are EA Sports FC 26 attributes, used here as a consistent, public proxy for player quality. Squad-level comparisons cover the players we could rate; coverage varies by team.
Netherlands vs Sweden 