Five years ago, it finally happened –  after 33 years and 132 straight wins, a 1-seed lost to a 16-seed!  And it wasn’t even close – UMBC beat Virginia 74-54.

You’d expect the 1-seeds to be dominant, right?  Sure they get beat plenty in the later rounds of the tournament.  Some of my most memorable games are ones where 1-seeds were upset in the second round (Bama over Stanford in 2004 and Northern Iowa over Kansas in 2010).  But…yeah.  The 1-seeds have been dominant.  They’ve won 65% of the past 37 tournaments and 8 of the last 10!

Overall Performance

• 147 (of 148) 1-seeds advanced to the Second Round
• 126 went on to the Sweet 16
• 101 reached the Elite 8
• 61 reached the Final 4
• 37 made the championship game
• 24 won the tournament

Performance Over the Last 10 Years

• 39 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
• 32 went on to the Sweet 16
• 25 reached the Elite 8
• 15 reached the Final 4
• 12 made it to the championship game
• 8 won the tournament

Bracket Performance History and Advice

• First Round:  A 1-seed has now only lost once in the First Round.  There have been close calls, but actually picking the upset is Bracket suicide.
• Second Round:  All 1-seeds will reach the second round, and 85% of them advance further.  It’s basically a toss up whether only 3 or all 4 will advance to the Sweet 16.
• Sweet 16:  It’s not likely that all four 1-seeds will survive past the Sweet 16 – it’s only happened 8 times.  At least two, and most likely three 1-seeds will win their Sweet 16 matchup.
• Elite 8:  Only two Final Fours, ever, did not include a 1-seed.  Most likely, one or two 1-seeds will advance past the Elite 8.
• Final 4:  1-seeds are 22-10 in Final 4 games against lower-seeded opponents.  There has been at least one 1-seed in 29 of 37 (78%) championship games.  Seven Championship games (including 2 of the last 4) were a matchup of 1-seeds.
• Final:  1-seeds have won 65% of the past 37 tournaments and 8 of the last 10!  They are 16-5 against lower-seeded opponents.

Record in the Second Round

• vs 8-seeds:  57-14
• vs 9-seeds:  69-7

Feats of Strength

• 2008 is the only year all four 1-seeds reached the Final 4.  Those teams were North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, and Kansas.
• Eight championship games featured a 1-seed face-off:
  • 1993 – North Carolina beat Michigan
  • 1999 – Connecticut beat Duke
  • 2005 – North Carolina beat Illinois
  • 2007 – Florida beat Ohio State
  • 2008 – Kansas beat Memphis
  • 2015 – Duke beat Wisconsin
  • 2017 – North Carolina beat Gonzaga
  • 2021 – Baylor beat Gonzaga