Data and predictions related to the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket


11-seeds have become the ultimate bracket busters.  They’ve laid waste to brackets twice in the last 11 years by reaching the Final 4.  11-seeds have actually reached the Round of 32 and the Sweet 16 about as often as 12-seeds, but they’re the only double-digit seed to make it to the Final 4.

Overall, 46 (of 128) 11-seeds advanced to the Round of 32.  19 went on to the Sweet 16, and 6 reached the Elite 8.

Over the last 10 years, 19 (of 40) advanced to the Round of 32.  8 went on to the Sweet 16, and 2 reached the Elite 8.

Record in the Second Round (by seed matchup)

  • vs 3-seeds:  14-28
  • vs 14-seeds:  5-0

Feats of Strength

  • In 1989 all four 11-seeds advanced to the second round
  • Three 11-seeds have advanced to the Final 4:
    • 2011 – Virginia Commonwealth
    • 2006 – George Mason
    • 1986 – LSU

2017 Advice

Two 11-seeds will get past the second round.  One of them will advance to the Sweet 16.

There’s an equal chance of either one or two 11-seeds upsetting their 6-seed opponents.  It sure is tempting to call the 11-seed Elite 8 or Final 4 run, but it’s probably not happening this year.

Pick one or two 11-seeds to win in the Round of 64.  Keep in mind that, on average for the last 10 years, 11-, -12, and 13-seeds combine to provide 4.4 total upsets in the first round.  So pick 3-5 of those upsets, and make 1 or 2 of them 11-seeds.  Unless you think your 11-seed has a really strong team or a great matchup, don’t pick your 11-seed to go any further.  Or if you don’t like any of your 12’s or 13’s to make it, go ahead and pick one of your 11’s.

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