BracketResearch.com

Data and predictions related to the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket

9-Seeds

The poor 9-seeds.  First they play against a team (the 8-seed in their region) that should be a fairly even match.  Not an easy win and there’s no fanfare if they do win.  Then, if they win, they have to face the 1-seed in the very next round.  Only the 13-16 seeds reach the Sweet 16 less frequently than the 8- and 9-seeds.  Actually, 9-seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances as 13-seeds.  Overall, 9-seeds have had a slight upper hand in their series against the 8-seeds.  In the last decade, however, the trend has reversed and the 8-seeds have been a little bit more successful.  In an evenly matched series, though, you’d expect streaks and trends to go back and forth a little.

Overall, 65 (of 128) 9-seeds advanced to the Round of 32.  6 went on to the Sweet 16, and 3 reached the Elite 8.  Two 9-seeds have reached the Final 4.

Over the last 10 years, 17 (of 40) advanced to the Round of 32.  2 went on to the Sweet 16, 1 reached the Elite 8, and 1 made it to the Final 4.

Record in the Second Round (by seed matchup)

  • vs 1-seeds:  6-61

Feats of Strength

  • The only two 9-seeds to make a Final 4 run are:
    • 2013:  Wichita State
    • 2000:  Wisconsin
  • All four 9-seeds have advanced to the Round of 32 four times (’89, ’94, ’99, and ’01)
  • Only twice did none of the 9-seeds advance (’02 and ‘15)

2017 Advice

Two 9-seeds will advance to be summarily dismissed by the following 1-seed opponent.  Probably.  It has been 4 years since a 9-seed advanced to the Sweet 16, so maybe they’re due?

At least one 9-seed will win their first game.  Assuming the trend over the last decade holds, only one or two 9-seeds will advance.  Now, there’s a 50-50 chance a 1-seed will lose in the Round of 32, but there’s also an equal chance that it’ll be an 8- or a 9-seed that beats them.

You might as well flip a coin to pick these First Round matchups.  If you really like a 9-seed, go ahead and pick them to win their first game.  You probably shouldn’t pick a 9-seed to beat a 1-seed, but hey, you could do a lot worse.

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