After failing to reach the Final 4 during the first 29 years of the tournament, we’ve seen a 7-seed in the Final 4 in three of the last eight. The 7-seed has done relatively well against their first opponent, but there is a steep drop off in performance after that. At least two 7-seeds have advanced to the Second Round in all but five (out of 37) years.
Overall Performance
- 90 (of 148) advanced to the Second Round
- 28 went on to the Sweet 16
- 10 reached the Elite 8
- 3 reached the Final 4
- 1 won the championship
Performance Over the Last 10 Tournaments
- 25 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
- 10 went on to the Sweet 16
- 4 reached the Elite 8
- 3 reached the Final 4
- 1 won the championship
Bracket Performance History and Advice
- First Round: 86% chance of at least one upset.
- Second Round: 61% of 7’s reach this round.
- Sweet 16: 19% of 7’s reach this round. There is a 43% chance not a single 7-seed gets this far. This isn’t too surprising, as the 7-seed usually runs into the 2-seed for their Second Round game.
- Elite 8: Only 7% of all 7-seeds make it this far.
- Final 4: A 7-seed reached the Final 4 for the first time in 2014, but has repeated the feat only twice since then.
- Final: One 7-seed has made it this far, but they won the title.
Record in the Second Round
- vs 2-seeds: 24-58
- vs 15-seeds: 2-3
Feats of Strength
- In 2014, Connecticut became the first 7-seed to not only reach the Final 4, but to win the championship.
- The only other 7-seeds to reach the Final Four were Michigan State in 2015 – which my 7 year old son somehow predicted in his first ever attempt at filling out a bracket – and South Carolina in 2017.
- The 2012 Florida Gators are the only other 7-seed to reach the Elite 8 since 2005, where they lost to 4-seed Louisville by 4.
- Two 7-seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in the same tournament six times: in ’86, ’90, ’93, ‘15, and ’17.