You’d think that 10-seeds have performed the best among all the double-digit seeds. Not so fast, my friend! Up to the Sweet 16, their historical performance is virtually equal to that of the 11- and 12-seeds. Like the them, at least one 10-seed usually advances to the Second Round.
Overall Performance
- 57 (of 144) advanced to the Second Round
- 23 went on to the Sweet 16
- 8 reached the Elite 8
- 1 reached the Final 4
Performance Over the Last 10 Years
- 15 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
- 4 went on to the Sweet 16
- 1 reached the Elite 8
- 1 reached the Final 4
Bracket Performance History and Advice
- First Round: 40% win their First Round game, which equates to an 87% chance of at least one upset. In the last 27 tournaments, only once (2007) has a 10-seed failed to advance.
- Second Round: Only 16% of 10-seeds advance past the Second Round.
- Sweet 16: Of the 23 teams to reach this round, eight of them continued to the next. Four out of the last 10 Sweet 16’s included a 10-seed.
- Elite 8: Only 6% make it this far.
- Final 4: It’s happened once, ever.
- Final: Never reached the final.
Record in the Second Round (by seed matchup)
- vs 2-seeds: 18-34
- vs 15-seeds: 5-0
Interesting that 10-seed’s winning percentage vs 7-seeds (0.396) is only slightly better than vs 2-seeds (0.346).
Feats of Strength
- In 2016, Syracuse became the first 10-seed to advance to the Final Four.
- In 1999 all four 10-seeds advanced to the second round. Three of them went on to the Sweet 16.
- Besides Syracuse in 2016, 2008 Davidson is the only 10-seed to advance to the Elite 8 in the last 18 tournaments. Led by Steph Curry, Davidson lost by 2 points to eventual champion Kansas.
- 10-seeds reached the Elite 8 a total of 8 times: ’87, ’90, ’91, ’97, ’99, ’02, ’08, and ‘16.