1o-Seeds

You’d think that 10-seeds have performed the best among all the double-digit seeds.  Not so fast, my friend!  Up to the Sweet 16, their historical performance is virtually equal to that of the 11- and 12-seeds.  Like the them, at least one 10-seed usually advances to the Second Round.

Overall Performance

  • 55 (of 140) advanced to the Second Round
  • 23 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 8 reached the Elite 8
  • 1 reached the Final 4

Performance Over the Last 10 Years

  • 16 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
  • 5 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 1 reached the Elite 8
  • 1 reached the Final 4

Bracket Performance History and Advice

  • First Round:  39% win their First Round game, which equates to an 86% chance of at least one upset.  In the last 26 years, only once has a 10-seed failed to advance.
  • Second Round:  Only 16% of 10-seeds advance past the Second Round.
  • Sweet 16:  Of the 23 teams to reach this round, eight of them continued to the next.  Five out of the last 10 Sweet 16’s included a 10-seed.
  • Elite 8:  Only 6% make it this far.
  • Final 4:  It’s happened once, ever.
  • Final:  Never reached the final.

Record in the Second Round (by seed matchup)

  • vs 2-seeds:  18-32
  • vs 15-seeds:  5-0

Interesting that 10-seed’s winning percentage vs 7-seeds (0.393) is only slightly better than vs 2-seeds (0.360).

Feats of Strength

  • In 2016, Syracuse became the first 10-seed to advance to the Final Four.
  • In 1999 all four 10-seeds advanced to the second round.  Three of them went on to the Sweet 16.
  • Besides Syracuse in 2016, Davidson is the only 10-seed to advance to the Elite 8 in the last 15 years.  Led by Steph Curry, Davidson lost by 2 points to eventual champion Kansas.
  • 10-seeds reached the Elite 8 a total of 8 times:  ’87, ’90, ’91, ’97, ’99, ’02, ’08, and ‘16.

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