BracketResearch.com

Data and predictions related to the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket

15-Seeds

Ok, 15-seeds.  Like one of those Twilight vampire novels, I’m finding it very difficult to read you.  After going 10 years without a single win, four 15’s have advanced to the Round of 32 in the last 5 years.  Is this a new trend?  A total fluke?

15-seeds’ overall record is 8-120 (0.063).  Doesn’t sound like much to be concerned about, right.   But 6 of the last 25 tourneys have seen a 15-seed advance.  That’s too many to ignore.  I’m going to need one more year of a 15-seed advancing to convince me.  It sounds weird to say this, but I think we’re due for all of the 2-seeds winning their first game.

Feats of Strength

  • In 2013, Florida Gulf Coast became the first 15-seed to advance to the Sweet 16.  It was a lot of fun to watch!  After beating 2-seed Georgetown 78-68, FGCU beat 7-seed San Diego State 81-71 two days later.  The hot streak ended with a 50-62 loss to 3-seed Florida.
  • The Other Bracketbusters
    • 2016:  Middle Tennessee over Michigan State 90-81
    • 2012:  Lehigh over Duke 75-70 & Norfolk State over Missouri 86-84
    • 2001:  Hampton over Iowa State 58-57
    • 1997:  Coppin State over South Carolina 78-65 (lost by 1 point to Texas in the next round)
    • 1993:  Santa Clara over Arizona 64-61
    • 1991:  Richmond over Syracuse 73-69

2017 Advice

There’s a very slight possibility of it happening, but we will probably not see a 2-15 upset this year.

If you like living on the edge (or maybe even past it), pick one upset here.  Pick it to happen in a region where you really like the 1- or 3-seed to win the region anyway.

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