The 4-seeds might be the trickiest to pick.  It’s likely that one will lose in the first round, but 3 of the last 9 Final 4’s included a 4-seed.  The only thing you can be fairly certain of is that we won’t see one in the championship game, since it’s only happened three times.

Overall Performance

  • 111 (of 140) 4-seeds advanced to the Second Round
  • 66 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 21 reached the Elite 8
  • 13 reached the Final 4
  • 3 made the championship game
  • 1 won the tournament

Performance Over the Last 10 Years

  • 32 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
  • 23 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 7 reached the Elite 8
  • 4 reached the Final 4
  • 1 made it to the championship game and lost

Bracket Performance History and Advice

  • First Round:  More than likely, one of the 4-seeds will lose in the First Round.  It’s not a foregone conclusion, however – all four 4-seeds have advanced to the Second Round ten times (in 35 tournaments).
  • Second Round:  There’s a 65% chance only 1 or 2 4-seeds will win in this round.
  • Sweet 16:  There’s about a 50-50 chance of no 4-seed making it past the Sweet 16.
  • Elite 8:  Of the 21 4-seeds to make it this far, 13 advanced.
  • Final 4:  About 32% chance of having a 4-seed in the Final Four.
  • Final:  Only three 4-seeds have reached the final game, and one of them won.

Record in the Second Round

  • vs 5-seeds:  41-33
  • vs 12-seeds:  26-12

Feats of Strength

  • 2014’s tournament was the first to see all four 4-seeds reach the Sweet 16.  They were UCLA, San Diego St, Michigan St, and Louisville.
  • Twice, the Final 4 had two 4-seeds in it
    • 1990 – Arkansas and Georgia Tech (both teams lost)
    • 2013 – Syracuse and Michigan faced off against each other
  • Arizona became the only team to win the tournament as a 4-seed in 1997.

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