The 4-seeds might be the trickiest to pick.  It’s likely that one will lose in the first round, but 3 of the last 11 Final 4’s included a 4-seed.  The only thing you can be fairly certain of is that we won’t see one in the championship game, since it’s only happened three times.

Overall Performance

  • 117 (of 148) 4-seeds advanced to the Second Round
  • 70 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 22 reached the Elite 8
  • 13 reached the Final 4
  • 3 made the championship game
  • 1 won the tournament

Performance Over the Last 10 Tournament

  • 32 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
  • 24 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 7 reached the Elite 8
  • 3 reached the Final 4
  • 1 made it to the championship game and lost

Bracket Performance History and Advice

  • First Round:  More than likely, one of the 4-seeds will lose in the First Round.  It’s not a foregone conclusion, however – all four 4-seeds have advanced to the Second Round 11 times (in 37 tournaments).
  • Second Round:  79% of 2’s reach this round.
  • Sweet 16:  47% of 2’s reach this round.  There’s about a 50-50 chance of no 4-seed making it past the Sweet 16.
  • Elite 8:  15% of 2’s reach this round.  Of the 22 4-seeds to make it this far, 13 advanced.
  • Final 4:  9% of 2’s reach this round.  About 31% chance of having a 4-seed in the Final Four.
  • Final:  Only three 4-seeds have reached the final game, and one of them won.

Record in the Second Round

  • vs 5-seeds:  42-34
  • vs 12-seeds:  28-13

Feats of Strength

  • 2014’s tournament was the first to see all four 4-seeds reach the Sweet 16.  They were UCLA, San Diego St, Michigan St, and Louisville.
  • Twice, the Final 4 had two 4-seeds in it
    • 1990 – Arkansas and Georgia Tech (both teams lost)
    • 2013 – Syracuse and Michigan faced off against each other
  • Arizona became the only team to win the tournament as a 4-seed in 1997.

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