The 4-seeds might be the trickiest to pick.  It’s likely that one will lose in the first round, but 3 of the last 10 Final 4’s included a 4-seed.  The only thing you can be fairly certain of is that we won’t see one in the championship game, since it’s only happened three times.

Overall Performance

• 113 (of 140) 4-seeds advanced to the Second Round
• 67 went on to the Sweet 16
• 21 reached the Elite 8
• 13 reached the Final 4
• 3 made the championship game
• 1 won the tournament

Performance Over the Last 10 Years

• 31 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
• 23 went on to the Sweet 16
• 7 reached the Elite 8
• 4 reached the Final 4
• 1 made it to the championship game and lost

Bracket Performance History and Advice

• First Round:  More than likely, one of the 4-seeds will lose in the First Round.  It’s not a foregone conclusion, however – all four 4-seeds have advanced to the Second Round ten times (in 36 tournaments).
• Second Round:  There’s a 66% chance only 1 or 2 4-seeds will win in this round.
• Sweet 16:  There’s about a 50-50 chance of no 4-seed making it past the Sweet 16.
• Elite 8:  Of the 21 4-seeds to make it this far, 13 advanced.
• Final 4:  About 32% chance of having a 4-seed in the Final Four.
• Final:  Only three 4-seeds have reached the final game, and one of them won.

Record in the Second Round

• vs 5-seeds:  42-33
• vs 12-seeds:  26-13

Feats of Strength

• 2014’s tournament was the first to see all four 4-seeds reach the Sweet 16.  They were UCLA, San Diego St, Michigan St, and Louisville.
• Twice, the Final 4 had two 4-seeds in it
  • 1990 – Arkansas and Georgia Tech (both teams lost)
  • 2013 – Syracuse and Michigan faced off against each other
• Arizona became the only team to win the tournament as a 4-seed in 1997.