As you’d expect, the 14-seed has had more success than the 15’s. At least one 14-seed has advanced to the Second Round in 4 of the last 5, but only 5 of the last 10 tourneys. There’s an unexpected trend, actually, in the frequency of 14-seed success.
14-seeds had an amazing run with 7 consecutive years of at least one of them advancing in the first round (1986-1992). Since then, 14-seeds have been winning less and less often.
Check out the average number of 14-seeds advancing to the Round of 32:
- 1985-1999: 0.87
- 2000-2014: 0.47
The most recent 14-seed uprisings are:
- 2016: Stephen F. Austin over West Virginia
- 2015: Georgia State over Baylor & UAB over Iowa State
- 2014: Mercer over Duke
- 2013: Harvard over New Mexico
- 2010: Ohio over Georgetown
- 2006: Northwestern State over Iowa
- 2005: Bucknell over Kansas
There’s about a 50% chance of a 3-14 upset this year, so don’t be surprised if it happens.
Given the low probability of it happening and the potential runs that 3-seeds can make, I wouldn’t take the chance of calling an upset this year. UNLESS you’re shooting for that perfect bracket, then it’s something to consider.