Monthly Archives: February 2022

2022 Providence and other good-seed-bad-computer-rank teams from past tournaments

“I’m sorry, Dave. Providence isn’t as good as their record and projected seed would indicate.”

With 2 weeks and some change until Selection Sunday, Providence has built an excellent resume. Projected as a 4-seed in the Bracket Matrix, Providence is:

  • 22-3 overall
  • 8-2 road/neutral record
  • First place in a strong (potentially 7 tournament bids) Big East
  • 5-2 Q1 record
  • 12-3 Q1/Q2 record

…and yet, receive little-to-no love from the computers. Providence is ranked 28, 31, 41, and 46 in the NET, Sagarin, BPI (ESPN), and KenPom rankings – not even close to what we’d expect from a 4-seed.

Continue reading →

Final Four Teams Win Away From Home

Loyola-Chicago won 78% of their games away from home before an epic Final Four run in 2018

Winning Away From Home

So your team is pretty good this year.  Congrats.  It’s still February and realistically there are 20 or so CBB squads out there that have a shot at making a run.  Maybe even a deep run, a Cinderella run.  So, what is the one thing that your team needs to be paying attention to right now?  Indeed, what is one of the primary historical key indicators that if your team achieves now, you can confidently stand around that watercooler one month out and say, “Seriously, we have a shot to not only go to the Elite Eight, but this is the year we are a Final Four team!”

It’s simpler than you might think, and while it should be noted that by itself this indicator is not a fool proof identifier, it is incredibly common among Final Four participants.  It is simply this:

Final Four teams win on the road all season long. 

Continue reading →