2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Busters – Model Results

Bracket busters are 6+ seeds that reach the Elite 8, thus wreaking bracket chaos. The historical average number of Bracket Busters in a tournament is 1.6. In the last 10 tournaments, we’ve averaged 2.

The Models


  • 6-Texas Tech is not quite the consensus pick, but eeks out 6-BYU for the most likely Bracket Buster
  • 6-BYU is KenPom’s clear favorite pick to bust brackets
  • Plenty of other, more likely teams before we get to the other 6-seeds Clemson and South Carolina
  • A popular dark horse Final Four pick, 7-Florida is one of the most likely Bracket Busters
  • 11-New Mexico and 10-Colorado are top picks among the double digit seeds
  • Again, ESPN has generally lower likelihoods of having any Bracket Busters