2024 NCAA Tournament Cinderella Candidates – Model Results

A Cinderella is a double-digit seed that wins at least 2 games, reaching the Sweet 16. We average seeing 2.2 Cinderellas every year, and we’ve only had two tournaments without one (1995 and 2007).

The Models


  • Besides ESPN being in love with 11-NC State for some reason, 11-New Mexico is the clear top pick
  • The West and South regions are much more likely to produce this year’s Cinderellas than the East and Midwest

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