Category Archives: Bracketology

New Page – Compare Metrics for Projected Tournament Teams

Check out the new Projected NCAA Tournament Team Comparison page. It includes two tables showing a list of teams along with some of the metrics the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will use as selection criteria, including NET, Kenpom, and Sagarin ranks, along with NET Quadrant records.

One table includes teams projected to make the tournament according to the Bracket Matrix, a compilation of bracketologists’ projections from across the internet.

The other table includes all NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball teams.

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NCAA Team Quadrant Wins and Losses Tracker

The wonderful Team Quadrant Wins and Losses Tracker is back! (click here)

What is a Quadrant?

This is the third year the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is using a quadrant classification system as one of their selection criteria.  The quadrant classification breaks down a team’s schedule and results in four quadrants with the purpose of placing greater emphasis on games played on neutral courts and in true road environments. The quadrant breakdown, based on NET rank and where the game is played, is as follows:

Q1 Wins Matter

Besides being a major decision criteria for the Selection Committee, the number of Q1 wins has shown to be a strong predictor of tournament success. We only have one season of NET rankings, so I’m talking Q1 wins based on the old RPI rankings. Click here to see what the magic number is and a little more on the subject (I’ll update soon with more data).

1-Seeds Have an Easier Path to the Elite 8 than 2-Seeds

As we head down the final stretch of the season, several teams are still in contention for receiving a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday.  One could reasonably argue that the difference in quality between 1-seeds and 2-seeds (the best 8 teams) isn’t very big.  In fact, 1-seeds have faced a 2-seed in their regional final (Elite 8 game) 45 times, and the series is split 23-22 with a slight advantage to the 1-seeds.  So does it really matter whether a team gets a 1-seed?  Yes it does!

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Championship Contender Watch – 2-12-2018

I have identified a set of traits commonly found in NCAA Tournament champions.  We’re far enough along in the season to start tracking the teams that fit the mold and those that are close.  Here are the teams currently exhibiting real contender characteristics.

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What is a Quadrant and why does it matter?

Have you wondered what a Quadrant 1 win actually is?  Do you want to know how your team stacks up? The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is looking at teams’ schedule results differently this year.

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Championship Contender Watch – 2-5-2018

I have identified a set of traits commonly found in NCAA Tournament champions.  We’re far enough along in the season to start tracking the teams that fit the mold and those that are close.  Here are the teams currently exhibiting real contender characteristics.

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Championship Contender Watch – 1-30-2018

I have identified a set of traits commonly found in NCAA Tournament champions.  We’re far enough along in the season to start tracking the teams that fit the mold and those that are close.  Here are the teams currently exhibiting real contender characteristics.

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Championship Contender Watch – 1-23-2018

I have identified a set of traits commonly found in NCAA Tournament champions.  We’re far enough along in the season to start tracking the teams that fit the mold and those that are close.  Here are the teams currently exhibiting real contender characteristics.

Continue reading

Bracket Projection 12-28-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Duke keeps the overall top seed
  • St. Bonaventure and Boise State move up to 10-seeds
  • 12-seed Houston replaced SMU as projected American Athletic Conference champion
  • 12-seed New Mexico State replaced Grand Canyon as projected Western Athletic Conference champion
1 Duke 1 Villanova
16 Rider 16 Lipscomb
8 Wichita St. 8 Clemson
9 Auburn 9 Notre Dame
5 Tennessee 5 Creighton
12 Western Ky. 12 Houston
4 Oklahoma 4 Florida St.
13 Murray St. 13 Texas-Arlington
6 Louisville 6 Arizona
11 St. Mary’s (CA) 11 Oklahoma St.
3 Seton Hall 3 North Carolina
14 East Tenn. St. 14 Penn
7 Oregon 7 Butler
10 Michigan 10 Penn St.
2 West Virginia 2 Arizona St.
15 Vermont 15 Towson
1 Purdue 1 Michigan St.
16 Hampton/Prairie View 16 Bucknell/Wagner
8 Cincinnati 8 St. John’s (NY)
9 Maryland 9 UNLV
5 Texas A&M 5 Gonzaga
12 New Mexico St. 12 South Dakota
4 TCU 4 Virginia
13 Stephen F. Austin 13 Portland St.
6 Nevada 6 Virginia Tech
11 UNI/Texas 11 Minnesota/Miami (FL)
3 Xavier 3 Arkansas
14 Buffalo 14 Northern Ky.
7 SMU 7 Kentucky
10 St. Bonaventure 10 Boise St.
2 Kansas 2 Texas Tech
15 Liberty 15 UC Santa Barbara